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January 2021 weather observations for the PNW


MossMan

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5 minutes ago, Requiem said:

Power just came back on-- what a weird windstorm. Just some howling west winds for an hour or so that were strong enough to down a bunch of trees in this area. Overall a pretty interesting event, south winds were underwhelming but that surge of westerlies made up for it.

It always amazes me how much wind direction determines the impact of a windstorm.

Areas that routinely see 45+ mph East or South winds can be decimated by the same windspeeds from the West or North.

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Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation)

Snow since February 2019: 91"

2023-24: 6"

2022-23: 17.5"

2021-22: 17.75"

2020-21: 14.5”

2019-20: 10.5"

2018-19: 24.75"

 

 

 

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8 minutes ago, bainbridgekid said:

It always amazes me how much wind direction determines the impact of a windstorm.

Areas that routinely see 45+ mph East or South winds can be decimated by the same windspeeds from the West or North.

Still trying to figure out what happened out here.   

We slept through everything but the power was out this morning and is still out... even right in North Bend.   After the 2006 storm there were trees down everywhere and we could not even get out for almost a day.   But I don't see any trees down in this area or in North Bend... just some random branches.   

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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15 minutes ago, bainbridgekid said:

It always amazes me how much wind direction determines the impact of a windstorm.

Areas that routinely see 45+ mph East or South winds can be decimated by the same windspeeds from the West or North.

Yeah, for sure. Gusts peaked at this elevation around 45-55 mph and the amount of transformers I saw exploding this morning was ridiculous.

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"Let's mosey!"

 

--Cloud Strife

 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014):

 

(1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.

(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches

(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches

(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches

(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches

 

Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019.

 

Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3"

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6 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Still trying to figure out what happened out here.   

We slept through everything but the power was out this morning and is still out... even right in North Bend.   After the 2006 storm there were trees down everywhere and we could not even get out for almost a day.   But I don't see any trees down in this area or in North Bend... just some random branches.   

Up here it was the triple whammy of major transmission lines getting hit, Substations going offline, and the normal trees on lines. Wonder if you lost a major transmission line that serves your area that was hit harder by wind than your location? 

Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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29 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Still trying to figure out what happened out here.   

We slept through everything but the power was out this morning and is still out... even right in North Bend.   After the 2006 storm there were trees down everywhere and we could not even get out for almost a day.   But I don't see any trees down in this area or in North Bend... just some random branches.   

You're usually quite protected from South and West winds, right? I wonder if the South wind busted through there but only briefly so it didn't have time to pile up a lot of damage but was enough to knock out power.

Alpental had a 121 mph gusts last night so there was definitely extremely impressive wind in the area.

Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation)

Snow since February 2019: 91"

2023-24: 6"

2022-23: 17.5"

2021-22: 17.75"

2020-21: 14.5”

2019-20: 10.5"

2018-19: 24.75"

 

 

 

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3 minutes ago, bainbridgekid said:

You're usually quite protected from South and West winds, right? I wonder if the South wind busted through there but only briefly so it didn't have time to pile up a lot of damage but was enough to knock out power.

Alpental had a 121 mph gusts last night so there was deftaome extremely impressive wind in the area.

Usually S and SW gets us... its W and NW that are blocked.

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

Usually S and SW gets us... its W and NW that are blocked.

You might need to trade your snowblower for a generator. 

Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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All good

1610560800-G6FOm3WjPbI.png

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Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

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My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope

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7 minutes ago, High Desert Mat? said:

If the op runs four times a day and it’s one member out of 50 for that time, why do we put so much stock on those runs and instead just wait for the ensemble that comes out shortly after? Do those runs actually have more stock than the other 49 members? Or are they all equal?

The operational run is the highest resolution. 

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14 minutes ago, High Desert Mat? said:

If the op runs four times a day and it’s one member out of 50 for that time, why do we put so much stock on those runs and instead just wait for the ensemble that comes out shortly after? Do those runs actually have more stock than the other 49 members? Or are they all equal?

https://www.weather.gov/media/ajk/brochures/NumericalWeatherPrediction.pdf

The operational run is essentially reality, or at least that particular model’s version of projected reality based on initialized conditions.  It’s the straw that stirs the drink. The ensembles are slightly tweaked in an effort to indicate the reliability of the operational’s interpretation of the state of the atmosphere.

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My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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7 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

https://www.weather.gov/media/ajk/brochures/NumericalWeatherPrediction.pdf

The operational run is essentially reality, or at least that particular model’s version of projected reality based on initialized conditions.  It’s the straw that stirs the drink. The ensembles are slightly tweaked in an effort to indicate the reliability of the operational’s interpretation of the state of the atmosphere.

So why is the operational at times way in left field compared to the ensembles? 

Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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16 minutes ago, MossMan said:

So why is the operational at times way in left field compared to the ensembles? 

That is the whole purpose of ensemble forecasting.  An error early in the run can throw the forecast off by a great deal pretty early on.  And the further out it goes, the greater the error  Could even be an initialization error.  

 

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4 minutes ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said:

That is the whole purpose of ensemble forecasting.  An error early in the run can throw the forecast off by a great deal pretty early on.  And the further out it goes, the greater the error  Could even be an initialization error.  

 

This is literally the best analogy I can come up with. An early error in day 3 or so as an example can throw the whole thing off. 

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/capital-weather-gang/wp/2016/12/06/heres-why-computer-models-ten-days-into-the-future-cannot-be-trusted/

imrs.jpg

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1 minute ago, Cloud said:

This is literally the best analogy I can come up with. An early error in day 3 or so as an example can throw the whole thing off. 

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/capital-weather-gang/wp/2016/12/06/heres-why-computer-models-ten-days-into-the-future-cannot-be-trusted/

imrs.jpg

I think of it like this.  If you got in a plane and aimed for Orlando, Florida, but were off by just a bit on your compass, you would be off the path by 30-50 miles by the time you got to Idaho, a couple of hundred over Kansas, and, by the time you were supposed to land in Orlando, you would be in Cuba or possibly the Atlantic Ocean.

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31 minutes ago, MossMan said:

So why is the operational at times way in left field compared to the ensembles? 

Because when Tim was soldering a connection on his weather manipulation device it shorted out. Proof is in all the rain we've had. The letter r and s for rain and sun are next to each other so he soldered the r on the s connection. CRAZY..

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We come from the land of the ice and snow.

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51 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

https://www.weather.gov/media/ajk/brochures/NumericalWeatherPrediction.pdf

The operational run is essentially reality, or at least that particular model’s version of projected reality based on initialized conditions.  It’s the straw that stirs the drink. The ensembles are slightly tweaked in an effort to indicate the reliability of the operational’s interpretation of the state of the atmosphere.

What I’ve always wondered is how they determine what those tweaks would be/the nature of the tweaks. It must be ever changing considering the initial conditions are always different. I’m guessing it’s probably statistically guided to some degree.

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22 minutes ago, Cloud said:

This is literally the best analogy I can come up with. An early error in day 3 or so as an example can throw the whole thing off. 

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/capital-weather-gang/wp/2016/12/06/heres-why-computer-models-ten-days-into-the-future-cannot-be-trusted/

imrs.jpg

Best Price is Right game ever

Plinko!

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Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

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GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope

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Some crazy wind gusts out in the Eastern Montana area from the same system that came through last night. Most stations gusted between 60 and 90 mph. I know little about the general weather out in that area, but the 80 and 90 mph readings seem especially remarkable.

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Home Wx Station Stats (Since January 2008):

Max Temp: 96.3F (2009)   Min Temp: 2.0F (2008)   Max Wind Gust: 45 mph (2018, 2021)   Wettest Day: 2.34 (11/4/22)   Avg Yearly Precip: 37"   10yr Avg Snow: 8.0"

Snowfall Totals

'08-09: 30" | '09-10: 0.5" | '10-11: 21" | '11-12: 9.5" | '12-13: 0.2" | '13-14: 6.2" | '14-15: 0.0" | '15-16: 0.25"| '16-17: 8.0" | '17-18: 0.9"| '18-19: 11.5" | '19-20: 11" | '20-21: 10.5" | '21-22: 21.75" | '22-23: 10.0" 

2023-24: 7.0" (1/17: 3", 1/18: 1.5", 2/26: 0.5", 3/4: 2.0", Flakes: 1/11, 1/16)

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56 minutes ago, MossMan said:

So why is the operational at times way in left field compared to the ensembles? 

I would imagine it is a matter of poor initialization, as some I think have already indicated.  I would suspect this isn’t just a fluke either, supported by the fact that we can see several concurrent runs where the ensembles and ops have a ridiculous amount of incongruity.  Makes me wonder if it comes down to antagonist effects as one parameter fights with another and/or tries to cancel the other one out.

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My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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16 minutes ago, Jesse said:

What I’ve always wondered is how they determine what those tweaks would be/the nature of the tweaks. It must be ever changing considering the initial conditions are always different. I’m guessing it’s probably statistically guided to some degree.

Yeah, that would be cool to know.  Although you’d think there would have to be some degree of continuity to the perturbance otherwise it’d be hard to establish a baseline.

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My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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21 minutes ago, Jesse said:

What I’ve always wondered is how they determine what those tweaks would be/the nature of the tweaks. It must be ever changing considering the initial conditions are always different. I’m guessing it’s probably statistically guided to some degree.

I've always wondered that too, and have never seen an explanation.

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9 minutes ago, Skagit Weather said:

Some crazy wind gusts out in the Eastern Montana area from the same system that came through last night. Most stations gusted between 60 and 90 mph. I know little about the general weather out in that area, but the 80 and 90 mph readings seem especially remarkable.

Not many mountains or hills to slow the winds down once you get to central and eastern Montana

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33 minutes ago, Jesse said:

What I’ve always wondered is how they determine what those tweaks would be/the nature of the tweaks. It must be ever changing considering the initial conditions are always different. I’m guessing it’s probably statistically guided to some degree.

And I think we'll never know tbh... it's most likely their secret sauce and how it's kept them ahead for the past 25 years and why the other models are still lagging behind. 

edit: oops, i should probably mention "them" = european ensembles. 

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3 hours ago, Deweydog said:

Operational runs are valuable in that they aren’t stand alone entities. The ensembles are simply perturbed versions of the operational.

Doesn't mean the 18z isn’t completely out to lunch, but it also doesn’t mean that it’s not a plausible outcome. The road is getting a little bumpy...

 

Amazing how one clown range 18z GFS fail can invert the psychological tide faster than a raindrop sends Tim bolting indoors.

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24 minutes ago, High Desert Mat? said:

Thanks all. Very informative. I just thought it was another member. Don’t go there Matt lol. 

I haven't done much research on the GEFS, but in the case of the Euro, it is another member. However, it is an unperturbed member, 50+1. 

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28 minutes ago, Skagit Weather said:

Some crazy wind gusts out in the Eastern Montana area from the same system that came through last night. Most stations gusted between 60 and 90 mph. I know little about the general weather out in that area, but the 80 and 90 mph readings seem especially remarkable.

Helena gusted to 81mph. New January record.
 

We had gusts around 65-70mph here. Blew down 10 power line poles on a major road in town. Fortunately we still have power since most of the city has underground power. Many other areas in Montana are not quite as lucky. So over the wind this year, its been relentless.

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Cold Season 2023/24:

Total snowfall: 26"

Highest daily snowfall: 5"

Deepest snow depth: 12"

Coldest daily high: -20ºF

Coldest daily low: -42ºF

Number of subzero days: 5

Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: 

https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history

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27 minutes ago, Phil said:

Amazing how one clown range 18z GFS fail can invert the psychological tide faster than a raindrop sends Tim bolting indoors.

I was gonna say faster than you go full Mr Hyde once someone does you wrong on the road. 😁

  • Storm 1

Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

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GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope

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Latest update is no power until tomorrow night at the earliest. So glad we got this generator. 6th power outage since Labor Day. Good lord. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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2 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Latest update is no power until tomorrow night at the earliest. So glad we got this generator. 6th power outage since Labor Day. Good lord. 

I’m guessing sometime tomorrow morning for us. Going on 20hrs without power and the generator has been running for 14hrs straight. Almost time to shut it down and refuel. 

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Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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