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January 2021 weather observations for the PNW


MossMan

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Lovely dry morning. 
37 degrees.

Looks like the power crews gained more headway overnight. Sounds like Snohomish Co PUD brought in crews from eastern Wa as well. 

1ED2DEB1-D971-4F80-BB1A-A6BBB56766DD.jpeg

B905543E-B141-4B32-8646-0B3166AC2E92.jpeg

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Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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4 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Lovely dry morning. 
37 degrees.

Looks like the power crews gained more headway overnight. Sounds like Snohomish Co PUD brought in crews from eastern Wa as well. 

1ED2DEB1-D971-4F80-BB1A-A6BBB56766DD.jpeg

B905543E-B141-4B32-8646-0B3166AC2E92.jpeg

That one rogue member isn't quite as rogue as it was the last time I saw it. 

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Home Weather Station Stats for 2023

High - Satans Bunghole

Lowest High - Not sure

Low - I don't have the data

Sub 40 highs - Not quite

Sub-freezing highs - Try again

Lows below 25 - You're joking

Lows below 20 - No

2023 Snowfall - LOL

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Couple more shots ;)

 

IMG_2068.JPG

IMG_2078.JPG

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Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 11
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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Still looking like we are about a week out from or coolest upper level airmass of the season. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Looks like we stopped the bleeding on this run. No arctic air or snow below 1000', but were we really expecting that anyway? Tim, I expect you to post plenty of pics!

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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3 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Looks like we stopped the bleeding on this run. No arctic air or snow below 1000', but were we really expecting that anyway? Tim, I expect you to post plenty of pics!

Healthier -NAO and less of that positively tilted troughing spilling out over the GOA.

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Which in the nearer term might actually increase the onshore component, but the wave axis would build more cold as time goes on.

I still like the very end of the month for the big shot of cold, with the stuff beforehand being more of an appetizer.

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Really a stellar run. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Just now, VancouverIslandSouth said:

Lots of sea level snow up here on this one.

That is exciting. Not so much for the Americans. Probably God's punishment for the shame we have brought on ourselves. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Of course there’s some funny business going on over the Aleutians so it’s not perfect either. But models should catch onto more interesting solutions soon enough.

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4 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

January 2008!

Lol. Everyone keeps bringing up that month and I’m lost as to why. I don’t see any large scale similarities. 🤷

Blocking is much healthier this time. Only problem is we’re wasting a week building cold back on this side of the pole, after the Pacific eviscerated it over the holidays. 

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1 minute ago, Phil said:

Lol. Everyone keeps bringing up that month and I’m lost as to why. I don’t see any large scale similarities. 🤷

Blocking is much healthier this time. Only problem is we’re wasting a week building cold back on this side of the pole, after the Pacific eviscerated it over the holidays. 

This month is about 10 degrees warmer than 2008 was so far, and that is not an exaggeration. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Just now, SilverFallsAndrew said:

This month is about 10 degrees warmer than 2008 was so far, and that is not an exaggeration. 

So..not similar? 

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Just now, Phil said:

Lol. Everyone keeps bringing up that month and I’m lost as to why. I don’t see any large scale similarities.

Blocking is much healthier this time. Only problem is we’re wasting a week building cold back on this side of the pole, after the Pacific eviscerated it over the holidays. 

The effects for us look like pretty much a dead ringer, as far as we're concerned. 

And there was decent blocking late in the month that year

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/fxg1/NARR/2008/us0121.php

 

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2 minutes ago, Phil said:

So..not similar? 

The upcoming pattern seems potentially similar. That month was near average to slightly below the first half, while the first half of this January has absolutely torched, but the 2nd half of the month could be similar. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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2 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

Meh... Our block migrates to the North Pole in the LR after barely hanging around long enough to do much of anything for us. It's certainly looking more likely we see a brief period of NPAC blocking while it continues it's march NNW and eventually buckles to more Aleutian energy.

At least if the operational runs are believed to be correct.

Yeah, just looking like a pretty brief window to tap into that fairly modified continental airmass there. Theme seems to be a quick return to onshore flow afterwards, with the best shot of lowland snow being about 10 days out during the transition out of the offshore flow.

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6 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

The effects for us look like pretty much a dead ringer, as far as we're concerned. 

And there was decent blocking late in the month that year

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/fxg1/NARR/2008/us0121.php

 

There was a +NAM and +EPO that month. The regional conditions might look similar on models for now due to the (initial) lack of cold on this side of the pole, and how that plays into baroclinic potential for storm/wave growth, but the large scale circulation is quite different and, eventually, so will be the weather out there.

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3 minutes ago, Timmy said:

All this January 2008 talk, was that good for us? I don’t remember getting snow then.

There was sporadic lowland snow and it stayed fairly chilly. Eugene and SW OR had a nice anafront snowstorm late in the month. The Portland and Seattle areas had some sticking snow a day later with snow showers in an upper level low. 

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2 minutes ago, Phil said:

There was a +NAM and +EPO that month. The effects might look similar on models for now due to the (initial) lack of cold on this side of the pole, and how that plays into baroclinic potential for storm/wave growth, but the large scale circulation is quite different and, eventually, so will be the weather out there.

I'm sure we will eventually deviate from it, yes. Just no signs of it whatsoever on the models right now.

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1 minute ago, BLI snowman said:

I'm sure we will eventually deviate from it, yes. Just no signs of it whatsoever on the models right now.

If anything it looks like the back half of this month will be significantly warmer than late January 2008. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Took a look at the GEM. Not much interesting there. The fact is these operational GFS runs are way more bullish than the other models for late next week. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Not saying either of these are analogs, but which one bears more resemblance to the projected pattern?

And..what are we missing that will (at least initially) prevent a homogenous outcome in terms of observed weather?

image.png.5a35cf7df04dabffba6cf6ad374c4c8d.pngimage.png.372aad9acfc50ddf0d180823ed6d95f8.png
 

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17 minutes ago, Phil said:

Lol. Everyone keeps bringing up that month and I’m lost as to why. I don’t see any large scale similarities. 🤷

Blocking is much healthier this time. Only problem is we’re wasting a week building cold back on this side of the pole, after the Pacific eviscerated it over the holidays. 

You are always focused on the big picture. Most people on here only care about local outcomes in their corner of the state. The 12z gives many of us similar conditions to 2008. 

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1 minute ago, Phil said:

Not saying either of these are analogs, but which one bears more resemblance to the projected pattern?

And..what are we missing that will (at least initially) prevent a homogenous outcome in terms of observed weather?

image.png.5a35cf7df04dabffba6cf6ad374c4c8d.pngimage.png.372aad9acfc50ddf0d180823ed6d95f8.png
 

Common sense.

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My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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1 minute ago, paulb/eugene said:

image.thumb.png.fc2fcc803b201fcfd484e87201c552b8.pngEugene getting a little love from GFS op

Very January 2008.

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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2 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

If anything it looks like the back half of this month will be significantly warmer than late January 2008. 

Doesn't look likely that we see an airmass colder than the day I posted above.

Most of these model runs I'm seeing really don't build a ton of cold air overall, either. Any comparisons to 1989 or 1969 look fairly ridiculous by comparison.

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5 minutes ago, FroYoBro said:

You are always focused on the big picture. Most people on here only care about local outcomes in their corner of the state. The 12z gives many of us similar conditions to 2008. 

But local outcomes arise through the big picture. I’m not a mesoscale guy, but I feel comfortable saying this upcoming pattern has more *potential* than Jan/Feb 2008 could’ve ever hoped to have. Not even in the same ballpark.

The 2007/08 pattern was quite zonal across the hemisphere with mediocre pacific blocking at best, and no downstream blocking whatsoever. There wasn’t even a chance for Arctic cold with that, regardless of how the models may or may not have looked at the time.

 

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8 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

Doesn't look likely that we see an airmass colder than the day I posted above.

Most of these model runs I'm seeing really don't build a ton of cold air overall, either. Any comparisons to 1989 or 1969 look fairly ridiculous by comparison.

That airmass and subsequent pattern ended up producing some pretty cold temps by January standards in the WV. At Eugene. 

1/21/08: 39/25

1/22: 39/21

1/23: 38/21

1/24: 32/18

1/25: 38/20

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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2 minutes ago, Phil said:

But local outcomes arise through the big picture. I’m not a mesoscale guy, but I feel comfortable saying this upcoming pattern has more *potential* than Jan/Feb 2008 could’ve ever hoped to have. Not even in the same ballpark.

The 2007/08 pattern was quite zonal across the hemisphere with mediocre pacific blocking at best, and no downstream blocking whatsoever. There wasn’t even a chance for Arctic cold with that, regardless of how the models may or may not have looked at the time.

 

I'm confident you would have been giving a similar speech at this point in 2008. There was in fact some arctic air that month, the PNW had a modified arctic airmass on the 21st with that offshore block, and then there was a progressive shot of arctic air into B.C. on the 28th.

And if 2007-08 was zonal, what does that make this winter?

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8 minutes ago, Phil said:

But local outcomes arise through the big picture. I’m not a mesoscale guy, but I feel comfortable saying this upcoming pattern has more *potential* than Jan/Feb 2008 could’ve ever hoped to have. Not even in the same ballpark.

The 2007/08 pattern was quite zonal across the hemisphere with mediocre pacific blocking at best, and no downstream blocking whatsoever. There wasn’t even a chance for Arctic cold with that, regardless of how the models may or may not have looked at the time.

 

Locally, January 2008 featured a relatively mild (although much colder than this month) start followed by some meandering ridging.  Retrogression then occurred with a modestly-solid continental air mass followed by further retrogression and a “messy” but cool pattern to round out the month.  Looks and sounds kind of familiar.  Add to that the fact that it was a first year nina which was primarily +EPO driven and yeah, you’re gonna get some comparisons.

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