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January 2021 weather observations for the PNW


MossMan

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5 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

Amazing

1611684000-hnSa8yacbdc.png

FRAME IT

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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And this is the mean...

Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

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10 minutes ago, MossMan said:

NWS Seattle is not onboard. 

Their forecast only goes through next Thursday and they really didn't comment on anything after day 7 in the AFD. Any chance for snow isn't till after that.

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Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation)

Snow since February 2019: 91"

2023-24: 6"

2022-23: 17.5"

2021-22: 17.75"

2020-21: 14.5”

2019-20: 10.5"

2018-19: 24.75"

 

 

 

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Just now, bainbridgekid said:

Their forecast only goes through next Thursday and they really didn't comment on anything after day 7 in the AFD. Any chance for snow isn't till after that.

It's always interesting to see whether KEZI or KVAL pulls the snow and/or cold trigger first.

Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

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This is just absolutely insane.

1611835200-AIP5Qzn3kHg.png

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Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

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1 minute ago, iFred said:

Pretty sure the local NWS wasn't even buying Feb 2019 until a week of good long range runs. I might have my memory wrong.

Anyway, bought a bunch or rock and lawn soil that I wanted to get delivered the last weekend of Jan, so kind of maybe sorta of hoping this doesn't play out. I really have bought into the "Winter Canceled" lifestyle and it would be my luck that something like this happens.

You should buy some Palm trees too. And lots of cherries and daffodils.

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18 minutes ago, bainbridgekid said:

To be fair, it shows like a foot in Seattle inside hour 282.

Still not particularly meaningful considering the 12z showed less than an inch, but it's definitely not just fantasy range stuff at this point.

Of course, snowfall output is always fantasy beyond a few days. But I know what you mean.

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A forum for the end of the world.

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19 minutes ago, bainbridgekid said:

To be fair, it shows like a foot in Seattle inside hour 282.

Still not particularly meaningful considering the 12z showed less than an inch, but it's definitely not just fantasy range stuff at this point.

Which just shows how much a small change in overall dynamics this far out can have a profound impact!

Or not. I dunno! I’m just an IT guy

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Home Weather Station Stats for 2023

High - Satans Bunghole

Lowest High - Not sure

Low - I don't have the data

Sub 40 highs - Not quite

Sub-freezing highs - Try again

Lows below 25 - You're joking

Lows below 20 - No

2023 Snowfall - LOL

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5 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

18z ensemble mean is definitely a step back from the 12z with the long range pattern, though probably not all that meaningful at this point.

Yea it is but I would take some major snowstorm over the longer term period 

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2 minutes ago, iFred said:

Rule of thumb says probably two more times. We probably see one more "SnOMG" run before something that looks closer to reality comes together. We probably also have everything melt away, maybe with either the UK or the ICON hanging around, only for everything to come back a week out. 

I’m not sure I’m ready for this, emotionally, given everything 2020 put us through.

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Home Weather Station Stats for 2023

High - Satans Bunghole

Lowest High - Not sure

Low - I don't have the data

Sub 40 highs - Not quite

Sub-freezing highs - Try again

Lows below 25 - You're joking

Lows below 20 - No

2023 Snowfall - LOL

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5 minutes ago, iFred said:

Rule of thumb says probably two more times. We probably see one more "SnOMG" run before something that looks closer to reality comes together. We probably also have everything melt away, maybe with either the UK or the ICON hanging around, only for everything to come back a week out. 

Yeah we’ve gotta remember we were real close with bigtime snow maps just last January and many south of Everett didn’t get much. Then there’s February 2019 where it worked out pretty good for most of us and it had lots of good deep snow maps. It’s hard for me to imagine us getting February 2019 totals twice in a 3 year span. Really no way of knowing this point wether it’ll play out good for just an average couple inch snow event for most...a much bigger event...or the lowlands below a 1000’ getting skunked altogether. Signs are really good at this point but things can change. 

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Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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Full run

1612029600-ECc9aSV1DU4.png

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Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

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15 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

Full run

1612029600-ECc9aSV1DU4.png

It's so hard not to get sucked in to these pretty maps.  Have to remind myself that they usually don't actually happen, but there is the chance! I told my niece who loves snow so I probably jinxed it.  Of course I've been telling my coworkers also.  Even wrote snow for the 28th on our work calendar a few days ago as a bold prediction. Might be a few days late on that....

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10 minutes ago, Fircrest said:

It's so hard not to get sucked in to these pretty maps.  Have to remind myself that they usually don't actually happen, but there is the chance! I told my niece who loves snow so I probably jinxed it.  Of course I've been telling my coworkers also.  Even wrote snow for the 28th on our work calendar a few days ago as a bold prediction. Might be a few days late on 

I know it's long range and it's the GFS, but what I honestly like is that this is the ensemble average and not the op run.

Still a long shot but gives me hope

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195572.png?1673757432

 

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Lock it in:

image.png

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Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

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13 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

Can you post KPLU pls?

1610647200-tbDD2cfFhQA.png

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Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

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GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

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A new source for weather forecasts. 

https://www.facebook.com/TheWeatherMessiah

Image may contain: one or more people, text that says 'BIBLICAL FLOODS ARE ABOUT TO RISE UPON THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY. FOR I SHALL FLUSH THE SIN FROM THIS LAND BOOK OF THE MESSIAH 6:66'

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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3 minutes ago, iFred said:

He came to me in a dream and told me to redirect everyone to his page and shut the forum down. In exchange, not only would I receive his blessing and the protection of Q, but Seattle would see several meters of snow before Easter.

Canadian snow!

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Just now, wxmet said:

GFS Pressure Lev KBFI 10-day Daily Temperature High_Low.png

Well alrighty then. :)

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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I am definitely not going to hold my breath for anything close to 12 inches but would be happy with even a smaller event with 2-3 inches.  North Seattle does 'okay' with fringe events due to being 250-300 feet.

Last year was a rather big letdown for areas Seattle and South with the models backing off the snowfall at the last minute if  I recall correctly.

 

 

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As good as the GFS operational is the parallel run is even better.  It shows a major snowstorm followed by 507 thicknesses over SEA.  In fact the parallel has had several runs showing major snowfall now, but this is the coldest run I've seen so far.

Speaking of cold....the last two ensemble means have shown 850s dropping to -7.5, and the 18z had both the operational and control drop below -10.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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Just now, snow_wizard said:

As good as the GFS operational is the parallel run is even better.  It shows a major snowstorm followed by 507 thicknesses over SEA.  In fact the parallel has had several runs showing major snowfall now, but this is the coldest run I've seen so far.

Speaking of cold....the last two ensemble means have shown 850s dropping to -7.5, and the 18z had both the operational and control drop below -10.

Yeah, I don't ever recall seeing forcasted temps this low...

Sign me up!

download (7).png

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195572.png?1673757432

 

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500h_anom.na.png

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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