January 2021 weather observations for the PNW

[Meatyorologist]

There are differences that I both like and don't like so far on this run as more frames come out. Watching...

[SilverFallsAndrew]

14 minutes ago, paulb/eugene said:

Who had this avatar on fox blog years ago

Josh the Snowman!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I'm sorry Josh. I recently had some friends hurt me too, and they won't apologize. It sucks. So I feel your pain. 

[Phil]

1 minute ago, Meatyorologist said:

There are differences that I both like and don't like so far on this run as more frames come out. Watching...

One of the larger swings you’ll see inside 108hrs.

[BLI snowman]

3 minutes ago, MWG said:

No, I don't. I'm sorry but now this is just going to almost accusing me to be someone else. Also, I'm a she but I guess it doesn't matter since it looks like some have made up their mind. 

 

1 minute ago, High Desert Mat? said:

Just talked to Josh aka as “Kevin Martin”. He said the only way he’ll make up a name and come back is for at least three of you to apologize to him. He’s hurting right now. 

We can see that 

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 5

(Past 4 runs)

[Dave]

1 hour ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said:

Blatantly stolen from Facebook, but taken here in Leavenworth 

 

Jesus that's dope. It is now my phone's wallpaper.

[Meatyorologist]

Just now, Phil said:

One of the larger swings you’ll see inside 108hrs.

Lots of upstream implications w/ regards to SE Asia right now as the energy that forms the eventual block is as of right now ejecting out of the continent and into that screaming jet. I'd expect a lot of volatility within the next 48 hours. By no means is anything beyond 72 hours set in stone.

[Meatyorologist]

As expected, block still forms unfazed, with the pattern progression delayed by six hours, give or take. This time tilt is more northerly and that Kona low isn't being sucked up as it amplifies. This could be better in the realistic LR.

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 6

(Past 4 runs)

[High Desert Mat?]

I just told him he’s a legend in his own time and there’s a page of you guys talking about him. He said he can’t in to look since he’s still banned but that you guys need to “get a life”. Just passing it on. 

[TheNewCulverJosh]

Late January?

[Gradient Keeper]

Mega block on this run

[Meatyorologist]

Blocking catches up w/ the 18z in regards to timing. Much better tilt. Kona low staying put. This could be a much better run in the 180-240 hour timeframe than the 18z. At the very least, it may not have to rely on a zany, hooking insanely amplified west-of-ideal ridge.

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 6.5

[Phil]

3 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

As expected, block still forms unfazed, with the pattern progression delayed by six hours, give or take. This time tilt is more northerly and that Kona low isn't being sucked up as it amplifies. This could be better in the realistic LR.

I actually think this will end up much warmer w/ the slower NPAC response. But who knows with the goofus. This model sucks so bad its comical.

[High Desert Mat?]

If anything this run looks better so far. Time will tell and I’m not holding my breath to anything that looks remotely like the 18z. I’ll take half that run tho. 

[TheNewCulverJosh]

1 minute ago, DJ Droppin said:

Day 6.5

Would love to see 560's in Nova Scotia though.

[High Desert Mat?]

Oh sh@t there’s Josh. Thought you were banned. From what you just told me legend lol. 

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 7

(Past 4 runs)

[SouthHillFrosty]

A little warmer so far

[Meatyorologist]

3 minutes ago, Phil said:

I actually think this will end up much warmer w/ the slower NPAC response. But who knows with the goofus. This model sucks so bad its comical.

With the kind of block it's spitting out now, it will make things happen. Seems to have better potential than the 18z, which IMO the OP was in the 95th percentile of potential solutions. I wouldn't be surprised to see the 06z be radically different as well.

[VancouverIslandSouth]

Things played out a little differently this day last year. Widespread this to come on the 0z GFS:

[Gradient Keeper]

Absolutely textbook block and tilt.

[TheNewCulverJosh]

3 minutes ago, High Desert Mat? said:

Oh sh@t there’s Josh. Thought you were banned. From what you just told me legend lol. 

[Phil]

4 minutes ago, Phil said:

I actually think this will end up much warmer w/ the slower NPAC response. But who knows with the goofus. This model sucks so bad its comical.

Then again the -NAM signal is stronger even though the TPV is farther NE. Maybe that’ll compensate? Just rambling here.

[wxmet]

Like the GOA and negative NAO block more this run but time will tell

[TheNewCulverJosh]

2 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:

Absolutely textbook block and tilt.

Looks pretty good.  I bet Milwaukie/Gladstone/OC areas get only a trace though.

[Phil]

3 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

With the kind of block it's spitting out now, it will make things happen. Seems to have better potential than the 18z, which IMO the OP was in the 95th percentile of potential solutions. I wouldn't be surprised to see the 06z be radically different as well.

You may very well be correct.

I didn’t like the early changes but there’s so much going in it’s overwhelming my brain. Who knows.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

It is a touch milder through hour 180. 

[High Desert Mat?]

1 minute ago, TheNewCulverJosh said:

Your face is my case!!

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 8

[Gradient Keeper]

I'll take this any Winter

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Gonna go backdoor here huh.

[Jesse]

2 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:

Day 8

Snow in San Fransicso?

[Meatyorologist]

Even with the fluctuations, this is still a pretty pattern. Reinforcing block popping up behind it, maybe a little closer than the 18z. Wicked tilt to it.

[Front Ranger]

Drier.

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 8.5 Nice trough connected/phasing with the PV lobe

[Gradient Keeper]

That's better

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 9'er

Joe Biden: "If you don't like this run, you ain't black."

A little harmless political humor. You're welcome.