snow_wizard Posted January 15, 2021 Report Share Posted January 15, 2021 1 minute ago, Skier B said: Has the Parallel been any more accurate in the long range? It does look nice at the end! It's too new to know how good it is. The last several runs have either had major cold, significant snow, or both. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted January 15, 2021 Report Share Posted January 15, 2021 1 minute ago, TacomaWaWx said: I’d just like to live closer to the San Juan’s...I just like the geography and foothills meeting the salish sea and the islands...along with the weather being more active. More windstorms and usually more snow up that way and not as hot as down this way in the summer. It is a nice area. I totally agree about the cooler summers, although I would go for Whatcom County for winter. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian_in_Leavenworth Posted January 15, 2021 Report Share Posted January 15, 2021 With all the cold air in BC still there, a storm track like this could be snowy for anyone north of a whatever storms that come through. At least that is the way I see it. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 15, 2021 Report Share Posted January 15, 2021 00z ECMWF Day 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheNewCulverJosh Posted January 15, 2021 Report Share Posted January 15, 2021 Models look like a Culver special!!!! I'm climbing to the top of Juniper Butte if temps are marginal!!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Skier B Posted January 15, 2021 Report Share Posted January 15, 2021 6 minutes ago, snow_wizard said: It's too new to know how good it is. The last several runs have either had major cold, significant snow, or both. I have a good feeling about this, Snow Wiz! We shall see. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted January 15, 2021 Author Report Share Posted January 15, 2021 Getting closer! 1 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian_in_Leavenworth Posted January 15, 2021 Report Share Posted January 15, 2021 9 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said: I’d just like to live closer to the San Juan’s...I just like the geography and foothills meeting the salish sea and the islands...along with the weather being more active. More windstorms and usually more snow up that way and not as hot as down this way in the summer. Jim is right about Whatcom County for winter I am from Anacortes. Grew up on Dewey Beach just north of Deception Pass on the South part of Fidalgo Island, about a 10 to 15 minute drive to Anacortes. Lovely summers. Not as hot, usually. Sometimes fog and low clouds prevent the hotter temps. Many times it would be in the 80s or 90s in other part of Western Wa., and in the 70s in Anacortes and Whidbey Island and even 60s in the San Juan's. Not always though. When it is in the 70s and clear, no better place to be. But as far as snow, so often it rains there and snows everywhere else. Way more snow falls toward Whatcom County and even toward places like Mt. Vernon and Burlington. It can and does snow in Anacortes, but not a good place for snow. But the winds can blow too. They had really strong winds this week. 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 15, 2021 Report Share Posted January 15, 2021 Day 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 15, 2021 Report Share Posted January 15, 2021 Day 4 Hmmm.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bainbridgekid Posted January 15, 2021 Report Share Posted January 15, 2021 17 minutes ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said: Jim is right about Whatcom County for winter I am from Anacortes. Grew up on Dewey Beach just north of Deception Pass on the South part of Fidalgo Island, about a 10 to 15 minute drive to Anacortes. Lovely summers. Not as hot, usually. Sometimes fog and low clouds prevent the hotter temps. Many times it would be in the 80s or 90s in other part of Western Wa., and in the 70s in Anacortes and Whidbey Island and even 60s in the San Juan's. Not always though. When it is in the 70s and clear, no better place to be. But as far as snow, so often it rains there and snows everywhere else. Way more snow falls toward Whatcom County and even toward places like Mt. Vernon and Burlington. It can and does snow in Anacortes, but not a good place for snow. But the winds can blow too. They had really strong winds this week. Yeah the combo of lack of elevation and being completely surrounded by water make the San Juan and Anacortes pretty crappy for snow. More than makes up for being further North in most setups. They can get hit in certain outflow situations, but get shadowed a lot and have no CZ possibilities in the San Juans. Quote Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation) Snow since February 2019: 91" 2023-24: 6" 2022-23: 17.5" 2021-22: 17.75" 2020-21: 14.5” 2019-20: 10.5" 2018-19: 24.75" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 15, 2021 Report Share Posted January 15, 2021 Day 5 I think I like this Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MWG Posted January 15, 2021 Report Share Posted January 15, 2021 16 minutes ago, iFred said: Welcome to the forums @MWG. I stayed in Medford once. It was ok. Thank you! And it is still ok maybe okish now lol 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dave Posted January 15, 2021 Report Share Posted January 15, 2021 Lots of work to do if I'm going to get birthday snowfall. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted January 15, 2021 Report Share Posted January 15, 2021 10 minutes ago, bainbridgekid said: Yeah the combo of lack of elevation and being pretty surrounded by water make the San Juan and Anacortes pretty crappy for snow. The San Juan can get hit in certain outflow situations, but get shadowed a lot and have no CZ possibilities. It takes a pretty displaced czone to really nail the San Juans. 2/23/2011 and 11/26/1985 are two examples off the top of my head. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted January 15, 2021 Author Report Share Posted January 15, 2021 D**n it who told Komo??? https://komonews.com/news/local/long-range-forecasts-suggest-colder-pattern-possible-late-next-week 1 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 15, 2021 Report Share Posted January 15, 2021 Day 6 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted January 15, 2021 Author Report Share Posted January 15, 2021 3 minutes ago, BLI snowman said: It takes a pretty displaced czone to really nail the San Juans. 2/23/2011 and 11/26/1985 are two examples off the top of my head. A former boss that lives in Mt. Vernon got nuked from that in Feb. 2011, he got 24” if I remember correctly. I got 16” at my old house...The one and only time I can ever remember Mt. Vernon outdoing my area. Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Skagit Weather Posted January 15, 2021 Report Share Posted January 15, 2021 12 minutes ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said: Jim is right about Whatcom County for winter I am from Anacortes. Grew up on Dewey Beach just north of Deception Pass on the South part of Fidalgo Island, about a 10 to 15 minute drive to Anacortes. Lovely summers. Not as hot, usually. Sometimes fog and low clouds prevent the hotter temps. Many times it would be in the 80s or 90s in other part of Western Wa., and in the 70s in Anacortes and Whidbey Island and even 60s in the San Juan's. Not always though. When it is in the 70s and clear, no better place to be. But as far as snow, so often it rains there and snows everywhere else. Way more snow falls toward Whatcom County and even toward places like Mt. Vernon and Burlington. It can and does snow in Anacortes, but not a good place for snow. But the winds can blow too. They had really strong winds this week. Agree with all this above. I live across the bay from Anacortes. If you want to live in one of the most naturally beautiful places in the NW with weather that most people in Washington would consider ideal, then go to Anacortes. If you want the beauty with "more exciting weather" go further north. In the last 12 years we've only had 3 days over 90F and usually only have about 2-5 days above 80F a year so if you like cool summers it's ideal. The sunsets are incredible up here and you have direct access to the San Juans and the North Cascades. Anacortes averages less than 30" a year and spends a large chunk of the year in the rain shadow. Most days it's raining throughout the sound so that I have at least a couple dry hours to get outside. And of course the wind is almost a constant factor, but not too strong to really be annoying (although the closer to the water you get, the fewer freezes you'll have). This is not a place to go for snow. Maybe if you end up with a little elevation close to Mount Erie on Fidalgo you can do okay, but most of Skagit County west of I-5 gets equivalent (or less) snow to the rest of the sound. The only recent years we've done "well" (better than many places in WA) were 2006, 2008, 2011, and 2020. To get lucky with northern storms you really have to be in the Skagit foothills, or more likely cross the Skagit/Whatcom line. 3 Quote Home Wx Station Stats (Since January 2008): Max Temp: 96.3F (2009) Min Temp: 2.0F (2008) Max Wind Gust: 45 mph (2018, 2021) Wettest Day: 2.34 (11/4/22) Avg Yearly Precip: 37" 10yr Avg Snow: 8.0" Snowfall Totals '08-09: 30" | '09-10: 0.5" | '10-11: 21" | '11-12: 9.5" | '12-13: 0.2" | '13-14: 6.2" | '14-15: 0.0" | '15-16: 0.25"| '16-17: 8.0" | '17-18: 0.9"| '18-19: 11.5" | '19-20: 11" | '20-21: 10.5" | '21-22: 21.75" | '22-23: 10.0" 2023-24: 7.0" (1/17: 3", 1/18: 1.5", 2/26: 0.5", 3/4: 2.0", Flakes: 1/11, 1/16) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted January 15, 2021 Report Share Posted January 15, 2021 Just now, MossMan said: A former boss that lives in Mt. Vernon got nuked from that in Feb. 2011, he got 24” if I remember correctly. I got 16” at my old house...The one and only time I can ever remember Mt. Vernon outdoing my area. Yeah, that thing was an insane monster. I think the highest places around Burlington had around 30" from it that day. The band just barely made it up to south Bellingham where we got less than an inch. I made a couple snow trips to Skagit County that week. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 15, 2021 Report Share Posted January 15, 2021 Day 7 Here we go! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brennan Posted January 15, 2021 Report Share Posted January 15, 2021 2 minutes ago, Skagit Weather said: Agree with all this above. I live across the bay from Anacortes. If you want to live in one of the most naturally beautiful places in the NW with weather that most people in Washington would consider ideal, then go to Anacortes. If you want the beauty with "more exciting weather" go further north. In the last 12 years we've only had 3 days over 90F and usually only have about 2-5 days above 80F a year so if you like cool summers it's ideal. The sunsets are incredible up here and you have direct access to the San Juans and the North Cascades. Anacortes averages less than 30" a year and spends a large chunk of the year in the rain shadow. Most days it's raining throughout the sound so that I have at least a couple dry hours to get outside. And of course the wind is almost a constant factor, but not too strong to really be annoying (although the closer to the water you get, the fewer freezes you'll have). This is not a place to go for snow. Maybe if you end up with a little elevation close to Mount Erie on Fidalgo you can do okay, but most of Skagit County west of I-5 gets equivalent (or less) snow to the rest of the sound. The only recent years we've done "well" (better than many places in WA) were 2006, 2008, 2011, and 2020. To get lucky with northern storms you really have to be in the Skagit foothills, or more likely cross the Skagit/Whatcom line. The whatcom/skagit line is a gold mine for outrageous weather events, especially above 500 feet. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 15, 2021 Report Share Posted January 15, 2021 1 minute ago, DJ Droppin said: Day 7 Here we go! GFS Day 7 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmet Posted January 15, 2021 Report Share Posted January 15, 2021 2 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said: GFS Day 7 So similar I had to check the headers to make sure they weren't the same models. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bainbridgekid Posted January 15, 2021 Report Share Posted January 15, 2021 9 minutes ago, BLI snowman said: Yeah, that thing was an insane monster. I think the highest places around Burlington had around 30" from it that day. The band just barely made it up to south Bellingham where we got less than an inch. I made a couple snow trips to Skagit County that week. Watching the radar that day was brutal. Got literally about 1/4 inch of windswept snow at WWU while they got over 2 feet less than 20 miles away. If I had a car then I would have driven into the heart of it. Probably would have gotten stuck but would have been a hell of a memory. 3 Quote Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation) Snow since February 2019: 91" 2023-24: 6" 2022-23: 17.5" 2021-22: 17.75" 2020-21: 14.5” 2019-20: 10.5" 2018-19: 24.75" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 15, 2021 Report Share Posted January 15, 2021 Day 8 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted January 15, 2021 Report Share Posted January 15, 2021 If I lived in anacortes or anywhere up in the San Juan’s I’d definitely live at some elevation. I wouldn’t want to be at a location near the water at sea level. I’m at 300’ elevation here in Tacoma...but less than a half mile from the water so we don’t get a lot of snow here and more muted cold anomalies. I’d like to have an improvement in that aspect. Outside of the weather aspect of living up north...the San Juan’s and up north is amazing and it’s my favorite place in PNW. 1 Quote Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 15, 2021 Report Share Posted January 15, 2021 In my opinion we're still about 2 days out from really having a good idea how this plays out. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bainbridgekid Posted January 15, 2021 Report Share Posted January 15, 2021 1 minute ago, DJ Droppin said: In my opinion we're still about 2 days out from really having a good idea how this plays out. *12 Quote Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation) Snow since February 2019: 91" 2023-24: 6" 2022-23: 17.5" 2021-22: 17.75" 2020-21: 14.5” 2019-20: 10.5" 2018-19: 24.75" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Skagit Weather Posted January 15, 2021 Report Share Posted January 15, 2021 3 minutes ago, bainbridgekid said: Watching the radar that day. Got literally about 1/4 inch of windswept snow at WWU while they got over 2 feet less than 20 miles away. If I had a car then I would have driven into the heart of it. Probably would have gotten stuck but would have been a hell of a memory. Probably my favorite weather day ever! I woke up at 5 a.m. that morning to watch the snow come down and then had 3 hours of snow from 5:30 to 8:30 which brought 8". Later that night I saw the radar exploding and went east into town. By far the most intense snow I've ever seen. You couldn't see more than a few feet. Honestly, not too much wind, but just dumping snow. Some places picked up 18" of snow in 3 hours. Luckily I was able to get home later that night without too much of an issue. We only picked up another 3-4" at home which gave us about 11" on the ground, but It was awesome to observe that event. 2 Quote Home Wx Station Stats (Since January 2008): Max Temp: 96.3F (2009) Min Temp: 2.0F (2008) Max Wind Gust: 45 mph (2018, 2021) Wettest Day: 2.34 (11/4/22) Avg Yearly Precip: 37" 10yr Avg Snow: 8.0" Snowfall Totals '08-09: 30" | '09-10: 0.5" | '10-11: 21" | '11-12: 9.5" | '12-13: 0.2" | '13-14: 6.2" | '14-15: 0.0" | '15-16: 0.25"| '16-17: 8.0" | '17-18: 0.9"| '18-19: 11.5" | '19-20: 11" | '20-21: 10.5" | '21-22: 21.75" | '22-23: 10.0" 2023-24: 7.0" (1/17: 3", 1/18: 1.5", 2/26: 0.5", 3/4: 2.0", Flakes: 1/11, 1/16) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 15, 2021 Report Share Posted January 15, 2021 Day 9'er Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 15, 2021 Report Share Posted January 15, 2021 2 minutes ago, bainbridgekid said: *12 Maybe 3 to 3 1/2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 15, 2021 Report Share Posted January 15, 2021 Ridge merger at Day 4, so it's going to be awhile and seem like forever with the grueling model riding to come. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted January 15, 2021 Report Share Posted January 15, 2021 10 minutes ago, bainbridgekid said: Watching the radar that day was brutal. Got literally about 1/4 inch of windswept snow at WWU while they got over 2 feet less than 20 miles away. If I had a car then I would have driven into the heart of it. Probably would have gotten stuck but would have been a hell of a memory. Yeah February 2011 was pretty interesting. We got 7” here in tacoma...while other spots just nearby got totally skunked. Seattle and auburn had nothing...my grandparents out in graham at 900’ only got 3”. One of the rare times my location was a big winner! Quote Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SeanNyberg Posted January 15, 2021 Report Share Posted January 15, 2021 Been around this forum for years and I love this. Because we all know, even if we do get some epic winter weather (which things are leaning that way), the models are going to back off at some point ... even if just temporarily ... and everyone will be throwing things at their laptops. Then they correct themselves and about half the people follow the models back, the other half are skeptical. We are in the current "High" of a couple GREAT model runs. Just remember, if they warm up 2-3 degrees it doesn't mean winter is over. LOL I will say, the familiar emotional whirlwind leading up to any snowstorm is comforting. It is like an episode of Law and Order... predictable and formulaic, like a warm blanket. This will be a fun two weeks. 8 1 Quote -------------------- Sean Nyberg IG: @SeanNyberg X: @SeanNyberg Facebook: Sean Nyberg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kolk1604 Posted January 15, 2021 Report Share Posted January 15, 2021 1 minute ago, DJ Droppin said: Ridge merger at Day 4, so it's going to be awhile and seem like forever with the grueling model riding to come. That's the best part. Many night shifts ahead! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Art_Digbee Posted January 15, 2021 Report Share Posted January 15, 2021 1 hour ago, TacomaWaWx said: I’d like to live up north too...Bellingham or anacortes would be places I’d like to live. Orcas island maybe too but there’s not a big job market there! There is a saying that you need to have three houses or three jobs in order to live in the San Juans. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 15, 2021 Report Share Posted January 15, 2021 1 minute ago, Kolk1604 said: That's the best part. Many night shifts ahead! Many. Mandatory night shifts may begin tonight? or fairly soon. If I'm not here, or Tiger, someone will have to take over if even just to post a few maps or a recap. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted January 15, 2021 Report Share Posted January 15, 2021 1 minute ago, Art_Digbee said: There is a saying that you need to have three houses or three jobs in order to live here. Yeah...I couldn’t live out there. I want to live closer by though so I don’t have to drive 2 hours to get to the ferry. Would be nice to only have to travel 20-30 minutes to hop on a ferry. If there was a good opportunity for me to move out there someday though I might just take it. Quote Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 15, 2021 Report Share Posted January 15, 2021 Day 10 says this pattern goes nowhere. We should turn progressively colder and colder. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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