Kolk1604 Posted January 15, 2021 Report Share Posted January 15, 2021 12z EMCWF Day 1-7 6 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted January 15, 2021 Report Share Posted January 15, 2021 1 hour ago, AlTahoe said: My street around that same time. Jan 2017 was awesome everywhere. House in the picture is a 2 story. My lab is 100lbs for scale. This was at lake level (banana belt) This is awesome. Hope you see a redux! Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bainbridgekid Posted January 15, 2021 Report Share Posted January 15, 2021 Euro is chilly days 7-8 and shows a little lowland snow but that some messy looking blocking. Quote Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation) Snow since February 2019: 91" 2023-24: 6" 2022-23: 17.5" 2021-22: 17.75" 2020-21: 14.5” 2019-20: 10.5" 2018-19: 24.75" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kolk1604 Posted January 15, 2021 Report Share Posted January 15, 2021 1 minute ago, hawkstwelve said: Bleh... It would be nice to have the Euro more onboard. Hopefully the EPS is. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted January 15, 2021 Report Share Posted January 15, 2021 1 minute ago, hawkstwelve said: Bleh... It would be nice to have the Euro more onboard. Fairly chilly run. Euro has definitely been the most consistent, relatively speaking. Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FroYoBro Posted January 15, 2021 Report Share Posted January 15, 2021 1 minute ago, Deweydog said: Fairly chilly run. Euro has definitely been the most consistent, relatively speaking. Yeah, the GFS has been a lost puppy over the last two days. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bainbridgekid Posted January 15, 2021 Report Share Posted January 15, 2021 4 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said: Bleh... It would be nice to have the Euro more onboard. Looks like snow in Vegas. Quote Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation) Snow since February 2019: 91" 2023-24: 6" 2022-23: 17.5" 2021-22: 17.75" 2020-21: 14.5” 2019-20: 10.5" 2018-19: 24.75" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kolk1604 Posted January 15, 2021 Report Share Posted January 15, 2021 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 15, 2021 Report Share Posted January 15, 2021 The 12Z ECMWF shows very little snow in the Cascades from about Stevens Pass southward over the next 10 days. Luckily the WA Cascades are running way above normal for snow pack. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 15, 2021 Report Share Posted January 15, 2021 TWL tell us the odds of a sub40 max at PDX! I’m saying 8:1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kolk1604 Posted January 15, 2021 Report Share Posted January 15, 2021 For my friends in Oregon 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SalemDuck Posted January 15, 2021 Report Share Posted January 15, 2021 The Euro looked great through about day 8.5. The slider on day 7-7.5 had a perfect trajectory, one of those notorious setups where systems get undermodeled and can have a surprise punch to them. After that though it got a bit wonky with the next shortwave curling under the block Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 15, 2021 Report Share Posted January 15, 2021 8 minutes ago, Kolk1604 said: For my friends in Oregon Not bad. Looks like a 38/23 day at SLE on there. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chewbacca Defense Posted January 15, 2021 Report Share Posted January 15, 2021 1 hour ago, AlTahoe said: This year would have left a bad taste in your mouth as we were inundated with Citiots, and Tourons. The state was on lockdown so everyone came to Tahoe. We probably had 5x the usual visitors and they were all trash people that ignored the lockdown. They literally trashed the entire area, and gave 1 out of 4 locals Covid including myself. Hopefully things will go back to normal next summer. Citiots and Tourons....I am soooo stealing those terms. I thing that unfortunately everywhere that was "outdoors" was overrun with "citiots and tourons" 1 Quote Britton Rd Bellingham Weather Station: https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KWABELLI103?cm_ven=localwx_pwsdash Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted January 15, 2021 Report Share Posted January 15, 2021 Up to 8.33” of rain on the month after this morning’s rain. Suns shining and 51 degrees. 7th 50+ day of the month now and 4th in a row. Quote Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian_in_Leavenworth Posted January 15, 2021 Report Share Posted January 15, 2021 Different look for the EPS. Trough more offshore, not nearly as cool. Probably a good snow pattern for places like mine, since it would still be cold enough for snow, but not so good for others. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SalemDuck Posted January 15, 2021 Report Share Posted January 15, 2021 Very ugly EPS run that trough axis digs out to around 132W and we're left with a lot of chilly rain. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted January 15, 2021 Author Report Share Posted January 15, 2021 11 minutes ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said: Different look for the EPS. Trough more offshore, not nearly as cool. Probably a good snow pattern for places like mine, since it would still be cold enough for snow, but not so good for others. Not a good trend...I might need to jump on the Justin/Andrew sad train. 2 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SalemDuck Posted January 15, 2021 Report Share Posted January 15, 2021 The EPS gets derailed by over amplifying the block on the day 9 reorganization which causes that trough to dig SW under it and it's centered about 5 degrees too far to the west Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chewbacca Defense Posted January 15, 2021 Report Share Posted January 15, 2021 1 minute ago, MossMan said: Not a good trend...I might need to jump on the Justin/Andrew sad train. volatility 1 Quote Britton Rd Bellingham Weather Station: https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KWABELLI103?cm_ven=localwx_pwsdash Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted January 15, 2021 Report Share Posted January 15, 2021 1 hour ago, ShawniganLake said: I have never used a weather app. I have one I use for radar, that's about it. 1 Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted January 15, 2021 Report Share Posted January 15, 2021 The pullback? Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian_in_Leavenworth Posted January 15, 2021 Report Share Posted January 15, 2021 Despite that, there must be enough good individual members of the ensembles to show snow that the mean still looks ok. Ensemble mean snow totals don't mean much, but it is interesting that it didn't really change much from last night. Last nights: Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian_in_Leavenworth Posted January 15, 2021 Report Share Posted January 15, 2021 Just now, TigerWoodsLibido said: The pullback? There's always a pullback. And sometimes it is the beginning of the end, and sometimes it goes back to being good. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted January 15, 2021 Report Share Posted January 15, 2021 56 minutes ago, Deweydog said: Fairly chilly run. Euro has definitely been the most consistent, relatively speaking. Perhaps, but today's run still evolves pretty differently than yesterday's 12z. Not sure how much better it's been than the GFS. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GHweatherChris Posted January 15, 2021 Report Share Posted January 15, 2021 Good thing none of the goodies shown were in the believable range. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jakerepp Posted January 15, 2021 Report Share Posted January 15, 2021 7 minutes ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said: Despite that, there must be enough good individual members of the ensembles to show snow that the mean still looks ok. Ensemble mean snow totals don't mean much, but it is interesting that it didn't really change much from last night. Last nights: Pretty negligible difference. You'd think they were identical maps from a cursory glance. Quote Home Weather Station Stats for 2023 High - Satans Bunghole Lowest High - Not sure Low - I don't have the data Sub 40 highs - Not quite Sub-freezing highs - Try again Lows below 25 - You're joking Lows below 20 - No 2023 Snowfall - LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted January 15, 2021 Report Share Posted January 15, 2021 6 minutes ago, Front Ranger said: I have one I use for radar, that's about it. That sounds useful. I’ve never seen one that forecasts locally any better than what I know from following the weather. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian_in_Leavenworth Posted January 15, 2021 Report Share Posted January 15, 2021 Keep in mind the GEFS actually was improved since last night. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted January 15, 2021 Report Share Posted January 15, 2021 11 minutes ago, Front Ranger said: Perhaps, but today's run still evolves pretty differently than yesterday's 12z. Not sure how much better it's been than the GFS. Hence the relative reference. It’s been a volatile week overall. Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AbbyJr Posted January 15, 2021 Report Share Posted January 15, 2021 From what I can see on the models, the 500mb pattern looks good but there just isn't a strong cold signal. I was hoping we would have more cold to work with after the SSW. Hopefully its still coming but perhaps its been dumped on the other side of the pole? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SalemDuck Posted January 15, 2021 Report Share Posted January 15, 2021 1 minute ago, AbbyJr said: From what I can see on the models, the 500mb pattern looks good but there just isn't a strong cold signal. I was hoping we would have more cold to work with after the SSW. Hopefully its still coming but perhaps its been dumped on the other side of the pole? By the time the cold air shows up we have lost the 500mb pattern so it stays north of the border. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted January 15, 2021 Report Share Posted January 15, 2021 3 1 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 15, 2021 Report Share Posted January 15, 2021 Things fall apart. 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted January 15, 2021 Author Report Share Posted January 15, 2021 2 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: Things fall apart. Still time for a nuclear winter...C’MON North Korea!! 1 1 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted January 15, 2021 Report Share Posted January 15, 2021 14 years ago today it snowed here tonight. Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted January 15, 2021 Report Share Posted January 15, 2021 37 minutes ago, AbbyJr said: From what I can see on the models, the 500mb pattern looks good but there just isn't a strong cold signal. I was hoping we would have more cold to work with after the SSW. Hopefully its still coming but perhaps its been dumped on the other side of the pole? You just need the pattern to be a bit more stable to build the cold in. A few runs have shown that. 2 Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted January 15, 2021 Author Report Share Posted January 15, 2021 Just noticed on Nextdoor that someone down the road from me had posted a picture on Wednesday of the reason it’s taking so long to get power back, probably even more damage on the same small grid. 1 1 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted January 15, 2021 Report Share Posted January 15, 2021 7 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: Things fall apart. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted January 15, 2021 Report Share Posted January 15, 2021 Oh well. I lived thru 1996-2003. It’ll be ok. 1 Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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