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January 2021 weather observations for the PNW


MossMan

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The 12Z ECMWF shows very little snow in the Cascades from about Stevens Pass southward over the next 10 days.

Luckily the WA Cascades are running way above normal for snow pack.

 

ecmwf-deterministic-nw-total_snow_10to1-1576000.png

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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TWL tell us the odds of a sub40 max at PDX! I’m saying 8:1

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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8 minutes ago, Kolk1604 said:

For my friends in Oregon 

floop-ecmwf_full-2021011512_sfct.us_state_or.gif

Not bad. Looks like a 38/23 day at SLE on there. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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1 hour ago, AlTahoe said:

This year would have left a bad taste in your mouth as we were inundated with Citiots, and Tourons. The state was on lockdown so everyone came to Tahoe. We probably had 5x the usual visitors and they were all trash people that ignored the lockdown. They literally trashed the entire area, and gave 1 out of 4 locals Covid including myself. Hopefully things will go back to normal next summer. 

Citiots and Tourons....I am soooo stealing those terms.  I thing that unfortunately everywhere that was "outdoors" was overrun with "citiots and tourons"

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11 minutes ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said:

Different look for the EPS.  Trough more offshore, not nearly as cool.  Probably a good snow pattern for places like mine, since it would still be cold enough for snow, but not so good for others.

image.thumb.png.c2071c5cd53efd177a2c7c8230dbf030.png

image.thumb.png.0800653db984dc20a261d4a8d391d1c0.png

Not a good trend...I might need to jump on the Justin/Andrew sad train. 

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Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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The pullback?

Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

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GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope

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7 minutes ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said:

Despite that, there must be enough good individual members of the ensembles to show snow that the mean still looks ok.  Ensemble mean snow totals don't mean much, but it is interesting that it didn't really change much from last night.

image.thumb.png.8e84d71c177144be113e04327bc8a6bb.png

Last nights:

image.thumb.png.d612b05a2ee8ebff918b32485a1a8ac3.png

Pretty negligible difference. You'd think they were identical maps from a cursory glance. 

Home Weather Station Stats for 2023

High - Satans Bunghole

Lowest High - Not sure

Low - I don't have the data

Sub 40 highs - Not quite

Sub-freezing highs - Try again

Lows below 25 - You're joking

Lows below 20 - No

2023 Snowfall - LOL

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11 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

Perhaps, but today's run still evolves pretty differently than yesterday's 12z. Not sure how much better it's been than the GFS.

ecmwf_z500a_namer_11.thumb.png.b648b76d70e95f76cc93b43acd2f4dc0.pngecmwf_z500a_namer_10.thumb.png.e5cb24ad8b1335584991eb5fb608e6b3.png

 

Hence the relative reference.  It’s been a volatile week overall.

My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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1 minute ago, AbbyJr said:

From what I can see on the models, the 500mb pattern looks good but there just isn't a strong cold signal.

I was hoping we would have more cold to work with after the SSW. Hopefully its still coming but perhaps its been dumped on the other side of the pole?

By the time the cold air shows up we have lost the 500mb pattern so it stays north of the border.

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Things fall apart.

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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37 minutes ago, AbbyJr said:

From what I can see on the models, the 500mb pattern looks good but there just isn't a strong cold signal.

I was hoping we would have more cold to work with after the SSW. Hopefully its still coming but perhaps its been dumped on the other side of the pole?

You just need the pattern to be a bit more stable to build the cold in. A few runs have shown that.

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A forum for the end of the world.

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Just noticed on Nextdoor that someone down the road from me had posted a picture on Wednesday of the reason it’s taking so long to get power back, probably even more damage on the same small grid. 

F1E96B54-1FFA-47EB-8FE3-6F2EE658438B.jpeg

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Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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Oh well. I lived thru 1996-2003. It’ll be ok.

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Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

Venmo

GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope

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