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January 2021 weather observations for the PNW


MossMan

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4 minutes ago, Kayla said:

Lemme see what I can find...oh yes here is the EPS control run!

918167515_ScreenShot2021-01-15at3_59_57PM.thumb.png.7868854e1d38298f4e125d3cfbe74d58.png1649588399_ScreenShot2021-01-15at3_59_27PM.thumb.png.af106d08df5d3ccebfbd2decbbcc4d38.png

 

Better! Still looks a little cut-off there on the 850s.

I guess if there's any good news it's that the models often do weird things with energy on the backside of major blocks like that, and especially in the midrange seem to have a cut-off fetish. 18z is probably about the warmest solution possible given the circumstances. The block still looks to hold largely firm and that's half the battle.

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Just now, Brian_in_Leavenworth said:

500h_anom.na.png

I swear this is at least the third time we've both posted the GEFS simultaneously!

Great minds think alike... :D

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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Welp, onto 22-23.

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Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

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floop-gefs-2021011518.500h_anom_npac.gif.cd6bd6c770aca507664751cccad7ce40.gif

I'm not complaining.

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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image.gif

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Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

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GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope

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8 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

I'm starting to lose some faith in any meaningful cold and/or snowy period. Just not the best trends on the operational runs recently.

Hopefully this is just their regular 'pull back before showing the goods again' move but I'm not optimistic.

Is the 2nd SSW throwing off the models?

195572.png?1673757432

 

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I’ll wait a few days before throwing in the towel. Ensembles still look good...gfs has been so up and down really hard to put much stock into it past a week out. Ensembles have been steady. 

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Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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Looks aight.

image.png

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Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

Venmo

GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope

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6 hours ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said:

Still cant believe people actually use weather apps for winter time forecasts.  Summer I understand, but winter?

I use the NWS app (AWeather). I trust the NWS over model snow maps.

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Phil! What went wrong?!

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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11 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

Cold night at the water front in Tacoma. Sad that 50 is considered cold for this winter

Well you’re at one or the warmest places in the Seattle area! Don’t worry it’ll atleast get chilly soon I have faith in some good winter weather soon still.

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Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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5 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Phil! What went wrong?!

Nothings gone wrong yet.  These are models.  The actual weather hasn't happened yet.  We may still get an arctic blast.  Every single time, and I mean every single time there is an actual arctic blast, the models  do this.  And you know that.  

And of course there are times when it actually does turn into a bust, and this could very well turn into a bust.

Give it time, and then analyze.

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40 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Getting dark out.  Three weeks ago right now it was pretty much dark already.

#winterisnear

It’s an interesting thought experiment to imagine a post made in a similar tone in mid-July.

#neverwouldhappen

#summerissacred

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4 minutes ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said:

Nothings gone wrong yet.  These are models.  The actual weather hasn't happened yet.  We may still get an arctic blast.  Every single time, and I mean every single time there is an actual arctic blast, the models  do this.  And you know that.  

And of course there are times when it actually does turn into a bust, and this could very well turn into a bust.

Give it time, and then analyze.

Things can change pretty quickly on the models. This event is still a ways out no surprise the models aren’t giving us a clear picture. 

Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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It appears the 18z GFS ensemble began to pick up on possible influence from a PV WSW of Hudson's Bay.  That is going to be a feature to watch.  That could be a game changer if it's able to dig close enough.  As it is the snowfall numbers on the 18z ensemble are pretty awesome.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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10 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

Things can change pretty quickly on the models. This event is still a ways out no surprise the models aren’t giving us a clear picture. 

The chance is still there for a great outcome.  I'm actually glad to be seeing it indicating stuff digging out too far over the ocean at this stage of the game as opposed to showing that two days from now.  We all know from past experience this won't play out as currently progged.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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I was going to say I can’t believe how people cancel then Uncancel winter whenever the models ebb and flow from run to run 8-10 days out. Then I remembered that I do this 😂 

 

I expect some typical flip flopping the next few days. When we are 3-4 days out I will officially release my vote for cancel or uncancel (and I will still probably be wrong)

 

here’s to hoping for some cold and some snow 🍻 

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Foggy out at the falls today. 

3625E800-DDED-4882-84BA-AC0EA785B885.jpeg

C26FB955-4614-4114-AA00-D138884D34A9.jpeg

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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7 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

The chance is still there for a great outcome.  I'm actually glad to be seeing it indicating stuff digging out too far over the ocean at this stage of the game as opposed to showing that two days from now.  We all know from past experience this won't play out as currently progged.

Still plenty of potential for something good to happen. How good? Yet to be seen. Atleast we know it’ll be cooler than what we’ve been seeing recently. 

Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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17 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

Things can change pretty quickly on the models. This event is still a ways out no surprise the models aren’t giving us a clear picture. 

Yup.  And it isn't like the models are showing a GOA low and zonal flow.  The same basic patter is there, just a few details that aren't right on those model runs, at least for those on the West side.

As people have been saying, the devil is in the details, and this is an example.

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FWIW most of the models are showing the GOA positive anomaly center VERY near the best possible location historically speaking.  The problem popping up on the bad runs is the bottom of the block doesn't hold strong enough and allows too much digging off the coast.  Hard to figure with the GOA positive center being so close to the sweet spot.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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13 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Power update...Still no power. 

That sucks, at least the weather is somewhat decent.  I'm sure it would be much more unpleasant if it were in the blizzard conditions we should be seeing in the near future.  ⛄⛄⛄

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9 minutes ago, Chewbacca Defense said:

That sucks, at least the weather is somewhat decent.  I'm sure it would be much more unpleasant if it were in the blizzard conditions we should be seeing in the near future.  ⛄⛄⛄

Yeah the mild weather has helped for sure! I’m planning on changing the oil and restocking fuel this weekend (if I get power back) to get ready in case we get a big wet snow event coming up that knocks out the power again. Even just the 3” we had last month started bringing down small branches, if it would have kept up we would have lost power for sure. 

Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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