wxmet Posted January 16, 2021 Report Share Posted January 16, 2021 No appreciable differences on the ECMWF compared to last night's 00z run out to 72 hrs. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 16, 2021 Report Share Posted January 16, 2021 Day 4 Uhhhh..... Ehhh...... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 16, 2021 Report Share Posted January 16, 2021 Maybe the OP runs are having feedback issues that the ensembles do not.... I don't know. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmet Posted January 16, 2021 Report Share Posted January 16, 2021 Looks like that cut-off is very real as the GFS and ECMWF are seeing it Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cloud Posted January 16, 2021 Report Share Posted January 16, 2021 10 minutes ago, wxmet said: No appreciable differences on the ECMWF compared to last night's 00z run out to 72 hrs. Until hour 96 comes into the frame. Yikes. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meatyorologist Posted January 16, 2021 Report Share Posted January 16, 2021 Just now, DJ Droppin said: Maybe the OP runs are having feedback issues that the ensembles do not.... I don't know. Better than the GFS. Quote Weather stats for MBY Snowfall: -Total snowfall since joining: 50.25" -2018-19: 21" -2019-20: 2.5" -2020-21: 13" -2021-22: 8.75" -2022-23: 5.75" -2023-24*: 0.25" -Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024 -Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021 -Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019 Temperatures: -Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021 -Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021 -Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Posted January 16, 2021 Report Share Posted January 16, 2021 1 minute ago, DJ Droppin said: Maybe the OP runs are having feedback issues that the ensembles do not.... I don't know. Gfs leading the way unfortunately Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthHillFrosty Posted January 16, 2021 Report Share Posted January 16, 2021 1 minute ago, Timmy said: Gfs leading the way unfortunately ...king gfs?? 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian_in_Leavenworth Posted January 16, 2021 Report Share Posted January 16, 2021 1 minute ago, wxmet said: Looks like that cut-off is very real as the GFS and ECMWF are seeing it Talking about the cut off low near California? Was there last night too hour 120. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthHillFrosty Posted January 16, 2021 Report Share Posted January 16, 2021 Taken from the Canadians Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 16, 2021 Report Share Posted January 16, 2021 Day 5.... Yeah Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian_in_Leavenworth Posted January 16, 2021 Report Share Posted January 16, 2021 1 minute ago, DJ Droppin said: Day 5.... Yeah Looks just like last night's hour 144. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Posted January 16, 2021 Report Share Posted January 16, 2021 2 minutes ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said: Talking about the cut off low near California? Was there last night too hour 120. I think we are talking the on under the ridge in the goa. The one that was a kona last night Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted January 16, 2021 Report Share Posted January 16, 2021 #loleuro Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Posted January 16, 2021 Report Share Posted January 16, 2021 Just now, Deweydog said: #loleuro Which is your fav airbud? (Not to be confused with airplane) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 16, 2021 Report Share Posted January 16, 2021 Day 6 Shapes up pretty nice Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted January 16, 2021 Report Share Posted January 16, 2021 1 minute ago, Timmy said: Which is your fav airbud? (Not to be confused with airplane) I think I’ve only seen the first one. I’m more akin to the Santa Paws series. Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted January 16, 2021 Author Report Share Posted January 16, 2021 Currently 38 degrees. .04” on the day. Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian_in_Leavenworth Posted January 16, 2021 Report Share Posted January 16, 2021 4 minutes ago, Timmy said: I think we are talking the on under the ridge in the goa. The one that was a kona last night Ok, the one that weakens the ridge a bit. I see the difference now. When I read cut off low, I think of the ones that drift down to CA. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Posted January 16, 2021 Report Share Posted January 16, 2021 2 minutes ago, Deweydog said: I think I’ve only seen the first one. I’m more akin to the Santa Paws series. I think there are like 15 straight to vhs and dvd. I’ll look into Santa paws Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Posted January 16, 2021 Report Share Posted January 16, 2021 1 minute ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said: Ok, the one that weakens the ridge a bit. I see the difference now. When I read cut off low, I think of the ones that drift down to CA. That was confusing to me too 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted January 16, 2021 Report Share Posted January 16, 2021 So far the ECMWF looks way better than the GFS. You can see the GFS is domed to fail by day 5 while the ECMWF is far better at days 5 and 6. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthHillFrosty Posted January 16, 2021 Report Share Posted January 16, 2021 Euro looking way better than gfs so far 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Posted January 16, 2021 Report Share Posted January 16, 2021 Hard to hate the euro at hour 144. don’t have access to precip maps but I’m guessing proceeding hours will be a close call. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 16, 2021 Report Share Posted January 16, 2021 Day 7 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 16, 2021 Report Share Posted January 16, 2021 2 minutes ago, snow_wizard said: So far the ECMWF looks way better than the GFS. You can see the GFS is domed to fail by day 5 while the ECMWF is far better at days 5 and 6. Yeah. GFS Op was toast at Day 3.5... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted January 16, 2021 Report Share Posted January 16, 2021 So far so good at day 7. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian_in_Leavenworth Posted January 16, 2021 Report Share Posted January 16, 2021 3 minutes ago, Timmy said: Hard to hate the euro at hour 144. don’t have access to precip maps but I’m guessing proceeding hours will be a close call. Pivotalweather.com has ECMWF precip maps. Have to go under ECMWF high resolution maps. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 16, 2021 Report Share Posted January 16, 2021 Just now, Brian_in_Leavenworth said: Pivotalweather.com has ECMWF precip maps. Have to go under ECMWF high resolution maps. There is less snow through day 7 on this run than the last couple runs. Pretty unimpressive. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Posted January 16, 2021 Report Share Posted January 16, 2021 1 minute ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said: Pivotalweather.com has ECMWF precip maps. Have to go under ECMWF high resolution maps. Good to know, thanks Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmet Posted January 16, 2021 Report Share Posted January 16, 2021 Block looking better on Day 7 and the PV is dislodged further south and signs of bridging between the GOA and Greenland block. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 16, 2021 Report Share Posted January 16, 2021 Day 8 nope! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian_in_Leavenworth Posted January 16, 2021 Report Share Posted January 16, 2021 2 minutes ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said: Pivotalweather.com has ECMWF precip maps. Have to go under ECMWF high resolution maps. It also has temperature maps there too. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted January 16, 2021 Author Report Share Posted January 16, 2021 2 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted January 16, 2021 Report Share Posted January 16, 2021 850s are solidly cold with northerly surface gradients on the Euro at day 7. Pretty nice. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cloud Posted January 16, 2021 Report Share Posted January 16, 2021 Just now, DJ Droppin said: Day 8 nope! Looks awfully lot like the 0z GFS Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 16, 2021 Report Share Posted January 16, 2021 I wonder how different tomorrow's 12z runs will be after Day 3.5 to 4. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted January 16, 2021 Report Share Posted January 16, 2021 1 minute ago, DJ Droppin said: Day 8 nope! At least that's more than a week out. Time for it to change. That could still work out too. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted January 16, 2021 Report Share Posted January 16, 2021 1 minute ago, Cloud said: Looks awfully lot like the 0z GFS It's a smidge better but yeah... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Posted January 16, 2021 Report Share Posted January 16, 2021 Godspeed to the night shift. Not all hero’s wear capes. Bring this one home for us. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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