Gradient Keeper Posted January 16, 2021 Report Share Posted January 16, 2021 Day 9'er Mammoth block just a nad too far west. Low offshore, with PV lobe digging towards BC... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted January 16, 2021 Report Share Posted January 16, 2021 That PV over Central Canada is the real wildcard. If that thing can nose in here it will save us. At any rate the ECMWF looks better than the GFS at day 9. The low is further south and closer to the coast. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 16, 2021 Report Share Posted January 16, 2021 If that offshore low slipped southward we would see a prolific blast Day 10-11. IF. MAYBE. COULD BE. ALMOST. NEARLY. JUST ABOUT. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 16, 2021 Report Share Posted January 16, 2021 Snow pack in Oregon is going to be around 50-60% of normal by next weekend. Pretty bleak. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted January 16, 2021 Report Share Posted January 16, 2021 1 minute ago, DJ Droppin said: Day 9'er Mammoth block just a nad too far west. Low offshore, with PV lobe digging towards BC... This is still very doable. Just a few tweaks and we're fine. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 16, 2021 Report Share Posted January 16, 2021 12z runs will be improved and colder. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted January 16, 2021 Report Share Posted January 16, 2021 1 minute ago, DJ Droppin said: If that offshore low slipped southward we would see a prolific blast Day 10-11. IF. MAYBE. COULD BE. ALMOST. NEARLY. JUST ABOUT. We just need that PV lobe to dig this far. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted January 16, 2021 Report Share Posted January 16, 2021 1 minute ago, hawkstwelve said: Sucks we have to waste a giant block like this... It hasn't happened yet. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 16, 2021 Report Share Posted January 16, 2021 Gotta do something to get the good mojo flowing! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthHillFrosty Posted January 16, 2021 Report Share Posted January 16, 2021 2 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: Snow pack in Oregon is going to be around 50-60% of normal by next weekend. Pretty bleak. Yikes that is not good Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 16, 2021 Report Share Posted January 16, 2021 Day 10'er Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted January 16, 2021 Report Share Posted January 16, 2021 2 hours ago, Meatyorologist said: At the very least, it's a known bias of the GFS to not cut off lows. And again, no other model shows this feature. Pretty sure that's the Euro. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 16, 2021 Report Share Posted January 16, 2021 Day 10-11 would turn progressively colder. C'MON EPS turn us into ice cubes ! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
High Desert Mat? Posted January 16, 2021 Report Share Posted January 16, 2021 Block of all blocks at day ten. Something we all wish for during the winter. Maybe it’ll tilt and get sturdy with a Kona low. Maybe not. Either way it’s better than a raging jet with highs in mid 50’s and rain in the mountains. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted January 16, 2021 Report Share Posted January 16, 2021 We'll just have to wait and see how things shape up he next couple of days. I expect another change of "thinking" in the models, but will it be favorable is the question. 2 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 16, 2021 Report Share Posted January 16, 2021 SNOW! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted January 16, 2021 Report Share Posted January 16, 2021 2 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said: Day 10-11 would turn progressively colder. C'MON EPS turn us into ice cubes ! Yeah....it's not terrible at day 10. The trough will probably swing inland. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 16, 2021 Report Share Posted January 16, 2021 I just told my Cat it's gonna snow! Follow up: She was asleep. No reaction. 1 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted January 16, 2021 Report Share Posted January 16, 2021 1 minute ago, DJ Droppin said: SNOW! Maybe enough cold air left over from the cold shot at day 7. This is a lot better than the GFS. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted January 16, 2021 Report Share Posted January 16, 2021 For people in the Puget Sound region the good news is easterly gradients are shown to be pretty weak when the precip arrives on this ECMWF run. That would ideal for wet bulb cooling, but not enough to overpower the moisture. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OysterPrintout Posted January 16, 2021 Report Share Posted January 16, 2021 1 hour ago, RentonHillTC said: The last hour I'm user name obligated to reply here Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 16, 2021 Report Share Posted January 16, 2021 1 minute ago, hawkstwelve said: More cold air to work with in BC near the end of the run vs. 12z, so that's something. Maybe in another 11 days or so? I'm more confident now than I was 24 hours ago. 12z ECMWF in 10 hours 37 minutes Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted January 16, 2021 Report Share Posted January 16, 2021 2 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said: More cold air to work with in BC near the end of the run vs. 12z, so that's something. Maybe in another 11 days or so? Overall this is actually not too bad of a run. It even shows some snow here. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted January 16, 2021 Report Share Posted January 16, 2021 10 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: Snow pack in Oregon is going to be around 50-60% of normal by next weekend. Pretty bleak. Wanna hear something else bleak? Our coldest temp was 23F...all the way back on October 26. Real great stuff after that pre-Halloween cold snap... 1 Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meatyorologist Posted January 16, 2021 Report Share Posted January 16, 2021 Just because it's not *exactly* tuned to a prolific, major week-long arctic blast with fifteen inches of snow doesn't mean it's "dreadful." C'mon people, you know how unreliable models are. The pieces are there, just...scattered, and very uncertain at that. Patience. 3 Quote Weather stats for MBY Snowfall: -Total snowfall since joining: 50.25" -2018-19: 21" -2019-20: 2.5" -2020-21: 13" -2021-22: 8.75" -2022-23: 5.75" -2023-24*: 0.25" -Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024 -Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021 -Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019 Temperatures: -Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021 -Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021 -Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted January 16, 2021 Report Share Posted January 16, 2021 Just now, Meatyorologist said: Just because it's not *exactly* tuned to a prolific, major week-long arctic blast with fifteen inches of snow doesn't mean it's "dreadful." C'mon people, you know how unreliable models are. The pieces are there, just...scattered, and very uncertain at that. Patience. It's easier to expect nothing in a given year in the winter weather department like what I grew up with during a large chunk of time growing up. 1 Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 16, 2021 Report Share Posted January 16, 2021 IF, and I realize it's a BIG IF, but IF the next few runs resolve that pesky cut off low in shunting the energy south into a kona low, we are going to see very cold runs ahead. I put that at 40% right now. Maybe 39.4%. Think Cold and SNOW! C'MON!!!! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted January 16, 2021 Report Share Posted January 16, 2021 Surface obs aren't bad for SEA on this Euro run. The last 5 day all have highs in the 38 to 42 range with lows mid 20s to low 30s. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GHweatherChris Posted January 16, 2021 Report Share Posted January 16, 2021 Any possible goodies still haven't entered the believable range anyways, so that's good, next!! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted January 16, 2021 Report Share Posted January 16, 2021 Vegas moneyline odds of goodies hitting us below 500ft at any point have dropped to -110 from -300 36 hrs ago. Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian_in_Leavenworth Posted January 16, 2021 Report Share Posted January 16, 2021 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meatyorologist Posted January 16, 2021 Report Share Posted January 16, 2021 Just now, Brian_in_Leavenworth said: That is a nice mean. Down from the 12z iirc, but you won't hear me complaining. 1 Quote Weather stats for MBY Snowfall: -Total snowfall since joining: 50.25" -2018-19: 21" -2019-20: 2.5" -2020-21: 13" -2021-22: 8.75" -2022-23: 5.75" -2023-24*: 0.25" -Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024 -Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021 -Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019 Temperatures: -Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021 -Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021 -Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 16, 2021 Report Share Posted January 16, 2021 EPS improved from 12z run. Low is closer to the coast. 560 dam heights over Anchorage at Day 9-10. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
umadbro Posted January 16, 2021 Report Share Posted January 16, 2021 2 hours ago, MossMan said: Light at the end of the tunnel!! This was July last summer. Less than 200' from my house. Wasn't weather, just a guy who fell asleep at the wheel. It was also near 100 that day. Power was out for around 12 hours. The fires it started was our concern. #windsheltered 1 Quote https://ambientweather.net/dashboard/efcb24c8a999dceddfaba7469ce5bd2f my personal weather station Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthHillFrosty Posted January 16, 2021 Report Share Posted January 16, 2021 @DJ Droppin what do u think of 0z gfs ensembles slowly trending snowier, but the operational a mess?! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kolk1604 Posted January 16, 2021 Report Share Posted January 16, 2021 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kolk1604 Posted January 16, 2021 Report Share Posted January 16, 2021 Still looking good through the end of Feb. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted January 16, 2021 Report Share Posted January 16, 2021 Here we go...any improvement...come on!!! 2 1 Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meatyorologist Posted January 16, 2021 Report Share Posted January 16, 2021 This is likely going to be worse. Cutoff is stronger and more north. Quote Weather stats for MBY Snowfall: -Total snowfall since joining: 50.25" -2018-19: 21" -2019-20: 2.5" -2020-21: 13" -2021-22: 8.75" -2022-23: 5.75" -2023-24*: 0.25" -Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024 -Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021 -Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019 Temperatures: -Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021 -Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021 -Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meatyorologist Posted January 16, 2021 Report Share Posted January 16, 2021 Low actually doesn't strengthen as much. Trough could end up being filled. 1 Quote Weather stats for MBY Snowfall: -Total snowfall since joining: 50.25" -2018-19: 21" -2019-20: 2.5" -2020-21: 13" -2021-22: 8.75" -2022-23: 5.75" -2023-24*: 0.25" -Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024 -Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021 -Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019 Temperatures: -Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021 -Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021 -Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Posted by OysterPrintout,
3 reactions
Go to this post
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.