RentonHill Posted January 17, 2021 Report Share Posted January 17, 2021 First timer here, can someone tell me if this worse than a Jesse Downvote? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 17, 2021 Report Share Posted January 17, 2021 Day 5 (Past 4 runs) 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FroYoBro Posted January 17, 2021 Report Share Posted January 17, 2021 Just now, RentonHillTC said: First timer here, can someone tell me if this worse than a Jesse Downvote? Sleep with a knife tonight. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted January 17, 2021 Report Share Posted January 17, 2021 2 minutes ago, RentonHillTC said: First timer here, can someone tell me if this worse than a Jesse Downvote? None of them are really bad. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted January 17, 2021 Report Share Posted January 17, 2021 TPV is significantly further S/SW this run. Could be interesting... 1 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GHweatherChris Posted January 17, 2021 Report Share Posted January 17, 2021 1 minute ago, Jesse said: None of them are really bad. Some people are emotionally impacted by emojis, for some really strange reason. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted January 17, 2021 Report Share Posted January 17, 2021 3 minutes ago, RentonHillTC said: First timer here, can someone tell me if this worse than a Jesse Downvote? If you’re on “The List” you get a downvote, angry beaver or a Costco hotdog. Consider it a compliment. 1 1 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 17, 2021 Report Share Posted January 17, 2021 Day 6 (Past 4 runs) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bainbridgekid Posted January 17, 2021 Report Share Posted January 17, 2021 Doesn't necessarily mean much, but the block is definitely a lot less "messy" at day 6 on the 00z. 1 Quote Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation) Snow since February 2019: 91" 2023-24: 6" 2022-23: 17.5" 2021-22: 17.75" 2020-21: 14.5” 2019-20: 10.5" 2018-19: 24.75" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kayla Posted January 17, 2021 Report Share Posted January 17, 2021 I feel like everyone is holding their breath. 00z is much improved! 1 Quote Cold Season 2023/24: Total snowfall: 26" Highest daily snowfall: 5" Deepest snow depth: 12" Coldest daily high: -20ºF Coldest daily low: -42ºF Number of subzero days: 5 Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meatyorologist Posted January 17, 2021 Report Share Posted January 17, 2021 3 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said: Day 5 (Past 4 runs) I’m liking how that cutoff is handled. definitely hampers the block development initially, but then scoots off to the south instead if meandering off the coast of AK/Canada and funneling warm Pacific air into the continent. Also the block reorganizes better. Similar to how the Euro handled it last night. 1 Quote Weather stats for MBY Snowfall: -Total snowfall since joining: 50.25" -2018-19: 21" -2019-20: 2.5" -2020-21: 13" -2021-22: 8.75" -2022-23: 5.75" -2023-24*: 0.25" -Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024 -Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021 -Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019 Temperatures: -Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021 -Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021 -Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted January 17, 2021 Report Share Posted January 17, 2021 Yeah this run looks much more interesting early on. The TPV in Canada is at 600-700 miles farther S/SW and more favorably tilted. 4 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted January 17, 2021 Report Share Posted January 17, 2021 5 minutes ago, Deweydog said: If you’re on “The List” you get a downvote, angry beaver or a Costco hotdog. Consider it a compliment. I've probably given everyone here one of those at some point. I guess I don't take emoji reacts super seriously. They are fun though! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted January 17, 2021 Report Share Posted January 17, 2021 Lions and tigers and downvotes, oh my! 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bainbridgekid Posted January 17, 2021 Report Share Posted January 17, 2021 1 minute ago, Phil said: Yeah this run looks much more interesting early on. TPV is at 600-700 miles farther S/SW and more favorably tilted. Huge differences in Western Canada with much more intense cold air this run. It would still take a lot to get it here, but that's never a bad thing. Last 4 runs at day 7: 5 Quote Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation) Snow since February 2019: 91" 2023-24: 6" 2022-23: 17.5" 2021-22: 17.75" 2020-21: 14.5” 2019-20: 10.5" 2018-19: 24.75" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kayla Posted January 17, 2021 Report Share Posted January 17, 2021 TPV headed for Montana... 3 Quote Cold Season 2023/24: Total snowfall: 26" Highest daily snowfall: 5" Deepest snow depth: 12" Coldest daily high: -20ºF Coldest daily low: -42ºF Number of subzero days: 5 Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 17, 2021 Report Share Posted January 17, 2021 Day 7 (Past 4 runs) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted January 17, 2021 Report Share Posted January 17, 2021 3 minutes ago, Kayla said: TPV headed for Montana... Yeah it actually makes it into the CONUS this time. Even if it doesn’t spill west of the cascades it’s a notable swing in that direction, in the early portion of the medium range too. One more bump and it’s there. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted January 17, 2021 Report Share Posted January 17, 2021 2 minutes ago, Kayla said: TPV headed for Montana... I know what the PV part is but what does the T stand for? Don't think I've ever seen that term de-acronymated here. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kayla Posted January 17, 2021 Report Share Posted January 17, 2021 Just now, Phil said: Yeah it actually makes it into the CONUS this time. Even if it doesn’t spill west of the cascades it’s a notable swing in the medium range. One more bump and it’s there. Yeah, it doesn't quite get there but this run takes a huge step in the right direction. 1 Quote Cold Season 2023/24: Total snowfall: 26" Highest daily snowfall: 5" Deepest snow depth: 12" Coldest daily high: -20ºF Coldest daily low: -42ºF Number of subzero days: 5 Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Posted January 17, 2021 Report Share Posted January 17, 2021 1 minute ago, Jesse said: I know what the PV part is but what does the T stand for? Don't think I've ever seen that term de-acronymated here. The 3 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kayla Posted January 17, 2021 Report Share Posted January 17, 2021 1 minute ago, Jesse said: I know what the PV part is but what does the T stand for? Don't think I've ever seen that term de-acronymated here. Tropospheric. 1 1 Quote Cold Season 2023/24: Total snowfall: 26" Highest daily snowfall: 5" Deepest snow depth: 12" Coldest daily high: -20ºF Coldest daily low: -42ºF Number of subzero days: 5 Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted January 17, 2021 Report Share Posted January 17, 2021 1 minute ago, Timmy said: The That's like people who say ATM machine. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted January 17, 2021 Report Share Posted January 17, 2021 4 minutes ago, Jesse said: I know what the PV part is but what does the T stand for? Don't think I've ever seen that term de-acronymated here. A tropospheric polar vortex. They’re like tendrils that usually couple to the stratospheric vortex, die off, and re-form, etc. However, now that the SSW has blasted the strat vortex into Eurasia, these tendrils are floating around loose and untethered. They’re a source of post-SSW chaos and model struggles. 4 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 17, 2021 Report Share Posted January 17, 2021 Day 8 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 17, 2021 Report Share Posted January 17, 2021 I certainly like the improvements this run. Another notch here and there(Yes, it is notch time!) and we get blasted! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted January 17, 2021 Report Share Posted January 17, 2021 Just now, Phil said: A tropospheric polar vortex. They’re like tendrils that usually couple to the stratospheric vortex, but now since the SSW has blasted the strat vortex into Eurasia, these tendrils are floating around loose and untethered. They’re a source of post-SSW chaos and model struggles. That makes sense. Can it easily be discerned where those are just by looking at the 500mb pattern? I mean I would assume every pocket of low heights floating around up north isn't technically a TPV. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 17, 2021 Report Share Posted January 17, 2021 Not as good as the 18z so far. 1 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted January 17, 2021 Report Share Posted January 17, 2021 2 minutes ago, Jesse said: That makes sense. Can it easily be discerned where those are just by looking at the 500mb pattern? I mean I would assume every pocket of low heights floating around up north isn't technically a TPV. They usually hang out above 50N, except in extreme cases where they’re forced south into the CONUS (IE: big league arctic outbreaks). Look for pockets of lowest 500mb heights in Canada. In this case it’s in Alberta and comes down & licks the Montana border. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted January 17, 2021 Report Share Posted January 17, 2021 This is actually one of the least meridional runs we’ve seen in quite some time. Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cloud Posted January 17, 2021 Report Share Posted January 17, 2021 Watching “Yellowstone” on BBC as the models comes in. Man, that place is so beautiful in the wintertime. Quite stunning. Would love to visit one day. 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Posted January 17, 2021 Report Share Posted January 17, 2021 ridge is flat at hour 200ish. Arctic air is nowhere close like previous runs Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted January 17, 2021 Report Share Posted January 17, 2021 Aaaand...we lose the ridge bridge earlier than 18z. Funny how chaotic these post-SSW periods can be. Even 4-5 days out. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted January 17, 2021 Report Share Posted January 17, 2021 2 minutes ago, Phil said: They usually hang out above 50N. Look for pockets of lowest 500mb heights in Canada. In this case it’s in Alberta and comes down & licks the Montana border. I feel like I see those every winter. BOTH pre and post SSW. What distinguishes them or can you just spot them because you have a good grasp on what's going on the the troposphere? I will admit I almost never look at the models at the 10mb level. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bainbridgekid Posted January 17, 2021 Report Share Posted January 17, 2021 Blocking in general is much flatter and less amplified this run. Who knows how that would impact things down the road and what kind of amplification might occur later but the difference is pretty huge. Quote Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation) Snow since February 2019: 91" 2023-24: 6" 2022-23: 17.5" 2021-22: 17.75" 2020-21: 14.5” 2019-20: 10.5" 2018-19: 24.75" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted January 17, 2021 Report Share Posted January 17, 2021 3 minutes ago, Jesse said: I feel like I see those every winter. BOTH pre and post SSW. What distinguishes them or can you just spot them because you have a good grasp on what's going on the the troposphere? I will admit I almost never look at the models at the 10mb level. They exist every winter. Most of the year, in fact. But they are much harder to dislodge (and are more predictable) when the stratospheric vortex is strong and baratropically coupled to the TPV(s). Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hyperbolic Trendz Posted January 17, 2021 Report Share Posted January 17, 2021 3 minutes ago, Deweydog said: If you’re on “The List” you get a downvote, angry beaver or a Costco hotdog. Consider it a compliment. Yeah, I mean pretty easy to cherry pick annoyances on this forum. For some, it might be a guy that downvotes profusely. For others, it’s a guy who touts model volatility during a pattern change as a groundbreaking, personal discovery and then reminds everyone ad nausea that he did just that. Or posts puppy photos. Or aligns themselves with the most obvious possible model solutions and shows up when they verify to remind everyone that he knew better in a veiled arrogance. It’s what makes this place great! 2 2 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Posted January 17, 2021 Report Share Posted January 17, 2021 gem still looks near snow next weekend. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted January 17, 2021 Report Share Posted January 17, 2021 Just now, Phil said: They exist every winter. Most of the year, in fact. But they are more predictable and much harder to dislodge when the stratospheric vortex is strong and baratropically coupled to the TPV(s). I see. So they are just chunks of the polar vortex that exist with or without an SSW. Although of course an SSW would make them a lot more common since they destabilize the PV. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted January 17, 2021 Report Share Posted January 17, 2021 Don’t give up on this run yet. 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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