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January 2021 weather observations for the PNW


MossMan

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3 minutes ago, RentonHillTC said:

First timer here, can someone tell me if this worse than a Jesse Downvote™️

AF3C8BAA-BF8B-482D-A860-4A9069ED304C.jpeg

If you’re on “The List” you get a downvote, angry beaver or a Costco hotdog.  Consider it a compliment.

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My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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I feel like everyone is holding their breath. 00z is much improved!

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Cold Season 2023/24:

Total snowfall: 26"

Highest daily snowfall: 5"

Deepest snow depth: 12"

Coldest daily high: -20ºF

Coldest daily low: -42ºF

Number of subzero days: 5

Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: 

https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history

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3 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:

Day 5

500h_anom.na.png

(Past 4 runs)

trend-gfs-2021011700-f120.500h_anom.na.gif

I’m liking how that cutoff is handled. definitely hampers the block development initially, but then scoots off to the south instead if meandering off the coast of AK/Canada and funneling warm Pacific air into the continent. Also the block reorganizes better. Similar to how the Euro handled it last night.

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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Yeah this run looks much more interesting early on. The TPV in Canada is at 600-700 miles farther S/SW and more favorably tilted.

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5 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

If you’re on “The List” you get a downvote, angry beaver or a Costco hotdog.  Consider it a compliment.

I've probably given everyone here one of those at some point. I guess I don't take emoji reacts super seriously. They are fun though!

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1 minute ago, Phil said:

Yeah this run looks much more interesting early on. TPV is at 600-700 miles farther S/SW and more favorably tilted.

Huge differences in Western Canada with much more intense cold air this run. It would still take a lot to get it here, but that's never a bad thing.

Last 4 runs at day 7:

 

3cbab0b0-1dd8-40a7-8363-513960bcc9d8.gif

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Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation)

Snow since February 2019: 91"

2023-24: 6"

2022-23: 17.5"

2021-22: 17.75"

2020-21: 14.5”

2019-20: 10.5"

2018-19: 24.75"

 

 

 

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TPV headed for Montana...

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Cold Season 2023/24:

Total snowfall: 26"

Highest daily snowfall: 5"

Deepest snow depth: 12"

Coldest daily high: -20ºF

Coldest daily low: -42ºF

Number of subzero days: 5

Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: 

https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history

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3 minutes ago, Kayla said:

TPV headed for Montana...

Yeah it actually makes it into the CONUS this time. Even if it doesn’t spill west of the cascades it’s a notable swing in that direction, in the early portion of the medium range too. One more bump and it’s there.

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Just now, Phil said:

Yeah it actually makes it into the CONUS this time. Even if it doesn’t spill west of the cascades it’s a notable swing in the medium range. One more bump and it’s there.

Yeah, it doesn't quite get there but this run takes a huge step in the right direction.

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Cold Season 2023/24:

Total snowfall: 26"

Highest daily snowfall: 5"

Deepest snow depth: 12"

Coldest daily high: -20ºF

Coldest daily low: -42ºF

Number of subzero days: 5

Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: 

https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history

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1 minute ago, Jesse said:

I know what the PV part is but what does the T stand for? Don't think I've ever seen that term de-acronymated here.

Tropospheric. 

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Cold Season 2023/24:

Total snowfall: 26"

Highest daily snowfall: 5"

Deepest snow depth: 12"

Coldest daily high: -20ºF

Coldest daily low: -42ºF

Number of subzero days: 5

Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: 

https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history

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4 minutes ago, Jesse said:

I know what the PV part is but what does the T stand for? Don't think I've ever seen that term de-acronymated here.

A tropospheric polar vortex. They’re like tendrils that usually couple to the stratospheric vortex, die off, and re-form, etc. However, now that the SSW has blasted the strat vortex into Eurasia, these tendrils are floating around loose and untethered. They’re a source of post-SSW chaos and model struggles.

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Just now, Phil said:

A tropospheric polar vortex. They’re like tendrils that usually couple to the stratospheric vortex, but now since the SSW has blasted the strat vortex into Eurasia, these tendrils are floating around loose and untethered. They’re a source of post-SSW chaos and model struggles.

That makes sense. Can it easily be discerned where those are just by looking at the 500mb pattern? I mean I would assume every pocket of low heights floating around up north isn't technically a TPV.

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Not as good as the 18z so far. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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2 minutes ago, Jesse said:

That makes sense. Can it easily be discerned where those are just by looking at the 500mb pattern? I mean I would assume every pocket of low heights floating around up north isn't technically a TPV.

They usually hang out above 50N, except in extreme cases where they’re forced south into the CONUS (IE: big league arctic outbreaks). Look for pockets of lowest 500mb heights in Canada. In this case it’s in Alberta and comes down & licks the Montana border.

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Aaaand...we lose the ridge bridge earlier than 18z. Funny how chaotic these post-SSW periods can be. Even 4-5 days out. 

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2 minutes ago, Phil said:

They usually hang out above 50N. Look for pockets of lowest 500mb heights in Canada. In this case it’s in Alberta and comes down & licks the Montana border.

I feel like I see those every winter. BOTH pre and post SSW. What distinguishes them or can you just spot them because you have a good grasp on what's going on the the troposphere? I will admit I almost never look at the models at the 10mb level.

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Blocking in general is much flatter and less amplified this run. Who knows how that would impact things down the road and what kind of amplification might occur later but the difference is pretty huge.

 

 

8b31c831-0009-4885-8bac-84f76365a9df.gif

Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation)

Snow since February 2019: 91"

2023-24: 6"

2022-23: 17.5"

2021-22: 17.75"

2020-21: 14.5”

2019-20: 10.5"

2018-19: 24.75"

 

 

 

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3 minutes ago, Jesse said:

I feel like I see those every winter. BOTH pre and post SSW. What distinguishes them or can you just spot them because you have a good grasp on what's going on the the troposphere? I will admit I almost never look at the models at the 10mb level.

They exist every winter. Most of the year, in fact. But they are much harder to dislodge (and are more predictable) when the stratospheric vortex is strong and baratropically coupled to the TPV(s).

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3 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

If you’re on “The List” you get a downvote, angry beaver or a Costco hotdog.  Consider it a compliment.

Yeah, I mean pretty easy to cherry pick annoyances on this forum. For some, it might be a guy that downvotes profusely.  For others, it’s a guy who touts model volatility during a pattern change as a groundbreaking, personal discovery and then reminds everyone ad nausea that he did just that.  Or posts puppy photos.  Or aligns themselves with the most obvious possible model solutions and shows up when they verify to remind everyone that he knew better in a veiled arrogance.  It’s what makes this place great! 

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Just now, Phil said:

They exist every winter. Most of the year, in fact. But they are more predictable and much harder to dislodge when the stratospheric vortex is strong and baratropically coupled to the TPV(s).

I see. So they are just chunks of the polar vortex that exist with or without an SSW. Although of course an SSW would make them a lot more common since they destabilize the PV.

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