Cloud Posted January 17, 2021 Report Share Posted January 17, 2021 Just now, Hawksfan2008 said: The SSW talk is getting old. It takes so many variables to fall into place to get snow around here. Until we get consistency across models within 120 hours there's not much to get excited about. Hope February delivers the goods! This SSW may very well be a dud on this side of the pole, certainly not on Putin’s side. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 17, 2021 Report Share Posted January 17, 2021 EURO at Day 4 has the healthiest ridge merger, stronger evolving block. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 17, 2021 Report Share Posted January 17, 2021 Day 5 hmmm.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RentonHill Posted January 17, 2021 Report Share Posted January 17, 2021 3 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said: EURO at Day 4 has the healthiest ridge merger, stronger evolving block. Hell yes that’s the good stuff. I have nothing to offer but GIFS. I apologize. But they are the best way to express how I feel. I don’t know about weather technically but I do know that it frickin fascinates me. And I love snow. And that I’ve had too much boxed wine. 3 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cloud Posted January 17, 2021 Report Share Posted January 17, 2021 5 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said: EURO at Day 4 has the healthiest ridge merger, stronger evolving block. I would say even at day 3. Even though it looks funky, there were noticeable differences and a smidge healthier than the GFS. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 17, 2021 Report Share Posted January 17, 2021 Day 6 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 17, 2021 Report Share Posted January 17, 2021 Day 7 If the ridge flops back to the east we're golden! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted January 17, 2021 Report Share Posted January 17, 2021 Do you guys feel lucky with the day 8 ECMWF? Day 7 looks like things could go well. 1 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted January 17, 2021 Report Share Posted January 17, 2021 Euro’s going an even less meridional route... Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted January 17, 2021 Report Share Posted January 17, 2021 5 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said: Day 7 If the ridge flops back to the east we're golden! PV over Sask. Not bad. I say 55% day 8 looks good. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 17, 2021 Report Share Posted January 17, 2021 Day 8 Oh SO CLOSE!!! 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian_in_Leavenworth Posted January 17, 2021 Report Share Posted January 17, 2021 3 minutes ago, snow_wizard said: Do you guys feel lucky with the day 8 ECMWF? Day 7 looks like things could go well. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 17, 2021 Report Share Posted January 17, 2021 Thank you King EURO for at least giving us some hope in the somewhat believable time frame... 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted January 17, 2021 Report Share Posted January 17, 2021 Day 8 could look a lot worse that's for sure. I like the fact this is obviously still in flux and the models are moving around a lot still. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted January 17, 2021 Report Share Posted January 17, 2021 2 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said: Day 8 Oh SO CLOSE!!! I like how there is such a big area of low heights inland on this run. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 17, 2021 Report Share Posted January 17, 2021 Day 9'er and off goes the block back to the Bering 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted January 17, 2021 Report Share Posted January 17, 2021 Winner at day 9! Northerly surface gradients. No digging out over the ocean. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted January 17, 2021 Report Share Posted January 17, 2021 3 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said: Day 9'er and off goes the block back to the Bering That trough over us sure is pretty though. There is still hope for this to be good. The first challenge was getting rid of that disastrous digging out over the ocean late next week. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted January 17, 2021 Report Share Posted January 17, 2021 No matter what day 10 looks like I will gladly take this ECMWF run. Lots of chilly weather in the 4 to 9 day period at least. Big improvement in the believable range. 3 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cloud Posted January 17, 2021 Report Share Posted January 17, 2021 5 minutes ago, snow_wizard said: That trough over us sure is pretty though. There is still hope for this to be good. The first challenge was getting rid of that disastrous digging out over the ocean late next week. This was a nice improvement compare to last night’s run at the same time frame. I really like the fact that it’s not digging the trough out to sea. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted January 17, 2021 Report Share Posted January 17, 2021 Really nice run. Really cold at day 10 too. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kolk1604 Posted January 17, 2021 Report Share Posted January 17, 2021 Looks like Arctic air just off the coast and a TPV just north of the border? Someone send it our way! C'MON EPS! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jakerepp Posted January 17, 2021 Report Share Posted January 17, 2021 Easy does it....back away from the ledge now... Quote Home Weather Station Stats for 2023 High - Satans Bunghole Lowest High - Not sure Low - I don't have the data Sub 40 highs - Not quite Sub-freezing highs - Try again Lows below 25 - You're joking Lows below 20 - No 2023 Snowfall - LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted January 17, 2021 Report Share Posted January 17, 2021 The surface obs show temps well below normal Wednesday through the following Tuesday at least. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kolk1604 Posted January 17, 2021 Report Share Posted January 17, 2021 Guys check out southern BC at hour 234. It's marching south! This run is going to end on a cliffhanger lol 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted January 17, 2021 Report Share Posted January 17, 2021 7 minutes ago, Kolk1604 said: Guys check out southern BC at hour 234. It's marching south! This run is going to end on a cliffhanger lol 1 Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted January 17, 2021 Report Share Posted January 17, 2021 3 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said: Not enough libido? Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kolk1604 Posted January 17, 2021 Report Share Posted January 17, 2021 Also heading in the right direction 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted January 17, 2021 Report Share Posted January 17, 2021 EPS is way better at least in the believable range. Much less digging over the ocean. Looking at last night's 0z this is a really good trend right now. Realistic snow threat being shown on this run. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
seattleweatherguy Posted January 17, 2021 Report Share Posted January 17, 2021 LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...Aforementioned high pressure will prevail on Wednesday into Thursday with temperatures cooling to just below normal. Ridge shifts off to the east Thursday as large upper level low across the eastern Pacific drops southeast. 12z ECMWF has come more into line with 12Z GFS and drops the low south but is more to the west and south as it heads into California. GFS takes the low in closer proximity to Washington as it heads into Oregon - with wrap around precip affecting portions of the area. This would suggest the possibility of a rain/snow mix in the lowlands but latest ensemble solutions have backed off on the possibility of snow with only a member or two showing anything. Ridging likely rebounds for later Friday into Saturday with cooler northerly flow. Things become more interesting for the end of the weekend into next week as ensembles highlight a better probability of below normal temperatures and snow chances for the lowlands. At this point, it's anyone's guess so continue to stay tuned! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GHweatherChris Posted January 17, 2021 Report Share Posted January 17, 2021 Phew, still nothing in the believable range on the Euro. 3 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted January 17, 2021 Report Share Posted January 17, 2021 Now the the operational, EPS mean, and EPS control all show the trough not digging too far west until after day 10. You have got to love that! 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted January 17, 2021 Report Share Posted January 17, 2021 5 minutes ago, GHweatherChris said: Phew, still nothing in the believable range on the Euro. You really get tiring. Looks like a pretty solid run to me. 3 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted January 17, 2021 Report Share Posted January 17, 2021 Even the stuff beyond day 10 looks better on this EPS run. Every time period is improving right now. 2 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GHweatherChris Posted January 17, 2021 Report Share Posted January 17, 2021 5 minutes ago, snow_wizard said: You really get tiring. Looks like a pretty solid run to me. We have differing opinions and I am ok with that, as you should be as well. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted January 17, 2021 Report Share Posted January 17, 2021 The EPS shows vodka cold beginning to move into AK, the Yukon, and slowly spread southward late in the run. The control shows major cold almost here by the end. Maybe all of the stuff this month will be just an appetizer with the main course arriving in early Feb. 2 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted January 17, 2021 Report Share Posted January 17, 2021 3 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said: 18z and 00z GFS/GEFS and 00z Euro/EPS all showed improvements with the trough axis within the semi believable range. Considering how close the disastrous 12z runs put me to the edge, it's nice to see a slight trend for the better. Hoping models continue to look better down the home stretch. If the trend of the EPS continues to improve at this rate we will talking about great things by this time tomorrow. Tonight's run is pretty darn good in the 6 to 10 day period. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kolk1604 Posted January 17, 2021 Report Share Posted January 17, 2021 5 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said: 18z and 00z GFS/GEFS and 00z Euro/EPS all showed improvements with the trough axis within the semi believable range. Considering how close the disastrous 12z runs put me to the edge, it's nice to see a slight trend for the better. Hoping models continue to look better down the home stretch. Hopefully this continues and we get some amazing weeklies on Monday 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthHillFrosty Posted January 17, 2021 Report Share Posted January 17, 2021 To colder runs 3 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kolk1604 Posted January 17, 2021 Report Share Posted January 17, 2021 1 1 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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