Jesse Posted January 18, 2021 Report Share Posted January 18, 2021 17 minutes ago, AlTahoe said: Went mt biking today up to 7200'. The only other year we could mt bike in Jan was 2015. #worstwinterever. Trees look sad. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted January 18, 2021 Author Report Share Posted January 18, 2021 1 hour ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said: I hadn't purchased a sled in many years so I did some research. This sled is pricey but built very good and is extremely fast. I tried it on road to my cabin and I hit 22 mph on my phone and the typical cheap sled would probably do 10 mph. Next time I'm wearing helmet! Here is my childhood sled...I nearly died on it a few times during the 80’s. 5 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted January 18, 2021 Author Report Share Posted January 18, 2021 7 minutes ago, Jesse said: Trees look sad. They need to be cut down for firewood which will come in handy for when we go into the freezer! Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poulsbo Snowman Posted January 18, 2021 Report Share Posted January 18, 2021 49 minutes ago, kokaneekidz said: NWS SEA is prognosticating a NorthWesterly flow with too much Pacific Ocean influence to amount to a hill of beans for any of us other than Andrew and Tim..... .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...A cool upper low will drop down from the northwest on Thursday--it is not impressive and will probably not have much precip as it mostly misses Western Washington on its way to northern California. A more substantial front and upper trough reaches the area around Sunday and a third system a few days after that. Each front and upper trough has colder air aloft. Looking at GEFS 850mb temps--forecast members are clustered mostly in a range of -4c to -7c, but those temps are merely flirting with wintry weather if there is onshore flow. The upper ridge around 145w next Thursday shifts to 160w into the last week of January and we see a series of colder upper troughs with a lot of over-water trajectory. That looks like a good recipe for a low snow level and great skiing but not a lot of anguish for the lowlands. 19 "not a lot of anguish for the lowlands." Geeze. Whoever wrote that is not a member of this board. 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jakeinthevalley Posted January 18, 2021 Report Share Posted January 18, 2021 16 minutes ago, MossMan said: Here is my childhood sled...I nearly died on it a few times during the 80’s. The kale will kill your will to live now! 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kokaneekidz Posted January 18, 2021 Report Share Posted January 18, 2021 18 minutes ago, MossMan said: Here is my childhood sled...I nearly died on it a few times during the 80’s. I have a identical Flexible Flyer. I used to sharpen the edges with a file to make better turns when I was a child. Sighs.... The good ol days 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlTahoe Posted January 18, 2021 Report Share Posted January 18, 2021 30 minutes ago, Jesse said: Trees look sad. That's the burn scar from the Angora fire in 2007 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rubus Leucodermis Posted January 18, 2021 Report Share Posted January 18, 2021 1 hour ago, Phil said: A bigger problem for record keeping is contamination by UHI/land use changes. Most of the USHCN data records are poisoned beyond repair, and there seems to be little interest developing a surface station based data record away from urban/suburban locations. Which is flummoxing given this so called “climate emergency” politicians have been whining about. https://news.utexas.edu/2010/11/15/rural-weather-stations-detect-warming-too/ Quote It's called clown range for a reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted January 18, 2021 Report Share Posted January 18, 2021 8 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said: https://news.utexas.edu/2010/11/15/rural-weather-stations-detect-warming-too/ What’s your point? Has anyone claimed the observer warming is solely an artifact of UHI? Because I certainly haven’t. And the “corrections” referenced in the article aren’t for UHI, specifically. In fact the homogenization procedures are quite perplexing at times, and the net effect of all “corrections” has been to quadruple the rate of warming in the raw data (and to *increase* it with respect to time). 1 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian_in_Leavenworth Posted January 18, 2021 Report Share Posted January 18, 2021 15 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said: https://news.utexas.edu/2010/11/15/rural-weather-stations-detect-warming-too/ Way more complicated than that. There is also the problem of paint. They need to constantly repaint the weather stations (but they don't), and that leads to artificial warming). Has been a big problem. Most likely the rural weather stations are also not being repainted often enough. Comparative analysis of the influence of solar radiation screen ageing on temperature measurements by means of weather stations - Lopardo - 2014 - International Journal of Climatology - Wiley Online Library And there is time of day adjustments in the past, etc. Really hard to get a good feel of what is happening or not happening, not nearly as simple as what anyone says it is. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted January 18, 2021 Report Share Posted January 18, 2021 Looked like it was clearing out earlier, but can already see mid level clouds backfilling from the Cascades now. Should be yet another insulated night in the low 40s. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rubus Leucodermis Posted January 18, 2021 Report Share Posted January 18, 2021 3 minutes ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said: Way more complicated than that. There is also the problem of paint. They need to constantly repaint the weather stations (but they don't), and that leads to artificial warming). Has been a big problem. Most likely the rural weather stations are also not being repainted often enough. Comparative analysis of the influence of solar radiation screen ageing on temperature measurements by means of weather stations - Lopardo - 2014 - International Journal of Climatology - Wiley Online Library And there is time of day adjustments in the past, etc. Really hard to get a good feel of what is happening or not happening, not nearly as simple as what anyone says it is. Acutally, it's pretty easy to see the planet is warming. Many, many signs point to it, not just weather station readings. 3 Quote It's called clown range for a reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted January 18, 2021 Author Report Share Posted January 18, 2021 2 minutes ago, Jesse said: Looked like it was clearing out earlier, but can already see mid level clouds backfilling from the Cascades now. Should be yet another insulated night in the low 40s. Raining here. Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted January 18, 2021 Report Share Posted January 18, 2021 8 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said: Acutally, it's pretty easy to see the planet is warming. Many, many signs point to it, not just weather station readings. He’s referring to the surface stations that measure said warming. Which is what your linked article is referring to. And, for the sake of accuracy, the earth has been cooling since July, as it does every year. It’s also been cooling for the last 6,500 years. And the last 5+ million years. And the last billion years. Lol. Depends on which timescale you choose! Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthHillFrosty Posted January 18, 2021 Report Share Posted January 18, 2021 7 minutes ago, Phil said: He’s referring to the surface stations that measure said warming. Which is what your linked article is referring to. And, for the sake of accuracy, the earth has been cooling since July, as it does every year. It’s also been cooling for the last 6,500 years. And the last 5+ million years. And the last billion years. Lol. Depends on which timescale you choose! It’s been getting colder for the past two hours 1 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted January 18, 2021 Report Share Posted January 18, 2021 1 hour ago, AlTahoe said: Went mt biking today up to 7200'. The only other year we could mt bike in Jan was 2015. #worstwinterever. It appears the second half of the winter will be a MUCH different story. You don't know how lucky you are to have blue sky like that BTW! Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted January 18, 2021 Report Share Posted January 18, 2021 1 hour ago, Jesse said: Trees look sad. The fact they have trees at 7200 feet puts them way up on WA. Up here it's barren that high up. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted January 18, 2021 Author Report Share Posted January 18, 2021 Currently 43 degrees and the shower just ended. .12” on the day, 4.76” on the month. Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted January 18, 2021 Report Share Posted January 18, 2021 26 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said: Acutally, it's pretty easy to see the planet is warming. Many, many signs point to it, not just weather station readings. Climate change is a constant. It has never ceased to change since the planet formed. The whole man is causing it theme is highly flawed. Very high chance the planet would be warming right now even if man wasn't here. I'll be very interested to see if the solar grand minimum reverses the trend though. There is probably a lag effect with this stuff. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted January 18, 2021 Report Share Posted January 18, 2021 3 minutes ago, MossMan said: Currently 43 degrees and the shower just ended. .12” on the day, 4.76” on the month. You must have been shadowed a lot this month. I've had 7.5" Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted January 18, 2021 Author Report Share Posted January 18, 2021 16 minutes ago, snow_wizard said: You must have been shadowed a lot this month. I've had 7.5" Yep was shadowed for much of the last big event. Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Skagit Weather Posted January 18, 2021 Report Share Posted January 18, 2021 I really appreciate the Pivotal Weather update and the fact we can now see snowfall out to 384 hours on the GFS. Tropical Tidbits has shown that for a while, but it doesn't zoom far enough and its resolution is terrible for the Sound. Maybe the update isn't good for the weenie inside me, but it's fun to be able to see the "fake" snow predictions change with each run. This is from the 18z today. 3 1 Quote Home Wx Station Stats (Since January 2008): Max Temp: 96.3F (2009) Min Temp: 2.0F (2008) Max Wind Gust: 45 mph (2018, 2021) Wettest Day: 2.34 (11/4/22) Avg Yearly Precip: 37" 10yr Avg Snow: 8.0" Snowfall Totals '08-09: 30" | '09-10: 0.5" | '10-11: 21" | '11-12: 9.5" | '12-13: 0.2" | '13-14: 6.2" | '14-15: 0.0" | '15-16: 0.25"| '16-17: 8.0" | '17-18: 0.9"| '18-19: 11.5" | '19-20: 11" | '20-21: 10.5" | '21-22: 21.75" | '22-23: 10.0" 2023-24: 7.0" (1/17: 3", 1/18: 1.5", 2/26: 0.5", 3/4: 2.0", Flakes: 1/11, 1/16) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Skagit Weather Posted January 18, 2021 Report Share Posted January 18, 2021 3 minutes ago, MossMan said: Yep was shadowed for much of the last big event. Even more shadowing up here with 2.58" on the month. Some of the runs this past week were suggesting this could be one of the driest Januarys I've recorded, but looks like we'll end up getting another inch or two before the end. 1 Quote Home Wx Station Stats (Since January 2008): Max Temp: 96.3F (2009) Min Temp: 2.0F (2008) Max Wind Gust: 45 mph (2018, 2021) Wettest Day: 2.34 (11/4/22) Avg Yearly Precip: 37" 10yr Avg Snow: 8.0" Snowfall Totals '08-09: 30" | '09-10: 0.5" | '10-11: 21" | '11-12: 9.5" | '12-13: 0.2" | '13-14: 6.2" | '14-15: 0.0" | '15-16: 0.25"| '16-17: 8.0" | '17-18: 0.9"| '18-19: 11.5" | '19-20: 11" | '20-21: 10.5" | '21-22: 21.75" | '22-23: 10.0" 2023-24: 7.0" (1/17: 3", 1/18: 1.5", 2/26: 0.5", 3/4: 2.0", Flakes: 1/11, 1/16) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted January 18, 2021 Author Report Share Posted January 18, 2021 19 minutes ago, Skagit Weather said: Even more shadowing up here with 2.58" on the month. Some of the runs this past week were suggesting this could be one of the driest Januarys I've recorded, but looks like we'll end up getting another inch or two before the end. Perhaps the snowfall will outdo the rainfall totals! Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GHweatherChris Posted January 18, 2021 Report Share Posted January 18, 2021 53 minutes ago, MossMan said: Currently 43 degrees and the shower just ended. .12” on the day, 4.76” on the month. Just a measly 17.26" here for the month. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthHillFrosty Posted January 18, 2021 Report Share Posted January 18, 2021 3 minutes ago, GHweatherChris said: Just a measly 17.26" here for the month. What is your yearly average? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 18, 2021 Report Share Posted January 18, 2021 4 minutes ago, GHweatherChris said: Just a measly 17.26" here for the month. Impressive. The Cedar Lake station out here at 1,500 feet is at 14.82 inches... and the station down in North Bend is at 9.69 inches. We have sad trees... parched from a lack of water. 1 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GHweatherChris Posted January 18, 2021 Report Share Posted January 18, 2021 2 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said: What is your yearly average? Not really sure out where I live, it is higher than HQM and the last 2 years have been the wettest I have ever recorded. I don't keep the stats logged permanently so I don't have the exact numbers to average. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GHweatherChris Posted January 18, 2021 Report Share Posted January 18, 2021 1 minute ago, GHweatherChris said: Not really sure out where I live, it is higher than HQM and the last 2 years have been the wettest I have ever recorded. I don't keep the stats logged permanently so I don't have the exact numbers to average. Don't be sad Frosty, I live in the now not stats of the past. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthHillFrosty Posted January 18, 2021 Report Share Posted January 18, 2021 4 minutes ago, GHweatherChris said: Don't be sad Frosty, I live in the now not stats of the past. That's fair! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RentonHill Posted January 18, 2021 Report Share Posted January 18, 2021 1 hour ago, Phil said: He’s referring to the surface stations that measure said warming. Which is what your linked article is referring to. And, for the sake of accuracy, the earth has been cooling since July, as it does every year. It’s also been cooling for the last 6,500 years. And the last 5+ million years. And the last billion years. Lol. Depends on which timescale you choose! How could we all have been so stupid? Why didn’t anybody think of it that way before?? Get those coal plants back online boys nothing we do matters it’s all about timescale!!! 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted January 18, 2021 Author Report Share Posted January 18, 2021 Go Tim Go!! https://youtu.be/OJ_6JKtXGQs Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 18, 2021 Report Share Posted January 18, 2021 00Z is running NOW. 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted January 18, 2021 Report Share Posted January 18, 2021 2 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: 00Z is running NOW. First run of MLK 2021!!! 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterdog Posted January 18, 2021 Report Share Posted January 18, 2021 I just signed up for Pivotal yearly. Was that a dumb move? Input anyone? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 18, 2021 Report Share Posted January 18, 2021 00z GFS Day 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 18, 2021 Report Share Posted January 18, 2021 Day 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kayla Posted January 18, 2021 Report Share Posted January 18, 2021 00z ICON gets mighty cold with the late next week trough. 5 1 Quote Cold Season 2023/24: Total snowfall: 26" Highest daily snowfall: 5" Deepest snow depth: 12" Coldest daily high: -20ºF Coldest daily low: -42ºF Number of subzero days: 5 Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 18, 2021 Report Share Posted January 18, 2021 Day 3 (Past 4 runs) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnarkyGoblin Posted January 18, 2021 Report Share Posted January 18, 2021 18 minutes ago, RentonHillTC said: How could we all have been so stupid? Why didn’t anybody think of it that way before?? Get those coal plants back online boys nothing we do matters it’s all about timescale!!! Exactly. This whole "we've been warming for 20,000 years" argument is ridiculous. No one with a brain denies our climate changes naturally - but it's at a MUCH slower scale we've seen in the last 100 years. You are completely ignoring the concept of 'rate of change' in your posts. If the only indicator of warming were temperature increases in cities around the world, you'd maybe have a valid argument over trying to dispute that comic. But as a whole, there's no question we are warming at an unnatural (and unprecedented) rate. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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