January 2021 weather observations for the PNW

[Slushy Inch]

Just now, DJ Droppin said:

Day 9'er hmmm.... If that slides south... Any offshore flow would make things VERY interesting!

Looking at that feature too.

[Gummy]

WRF GFS map is out, not buying those high snowfall totals though.

The GFS plumes mean from the noaa site show about the same totals as that Euro snowfall map.

 

 

 

 

[GHweatherChris]

8 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

ECMWF snow through Monday afternoon...

 

Monday is just over an hour away.

[TacomaWaWx]

6 minutes ago, wxmet said:

Snow to rain event 

Gotta take what we can get at this point. Have had just a trace of snowfall so far here this winter. 

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, TacomaWaWx said:

Gotta take what we can get at this point. Have had just a trace of snowfall so far here this winter. 

Its actually not snow to rain... its more diurnal in nature.  The air mass is not warming up overall in that time frame.

[TacomaWaWx]

Just now, TT-SEA said:

Its actually not snow to rain... its more diurnal in nature.  The air mass is not warming up overall in that time frame.

Maybe we will get lucky and get another trace of accumulation again. 

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 10 Block, trough too far offshore

[Gradient Keeper]

What does it take to keep a ridge in place in the Gulf of Alaska for more than 48 hours. Annoying.

[Kolk1604]

Snow totals keep going up at least...

[MossMan]

11 minutes ago, Gummy said:

WRF GFS map is out, not buying those high snowfall totals though.

The GFS plumes mean from the noaa site show about the same totals as that Euro snowfall map.

 

 

 

 

I’m in the dark blue! 

[SouthHillFrosty]

10 minutes ago, Kolk1604 said:

Snow totals keep going up at least...

I would be happy with this 

[wxmet]

15 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Its actually not snow to rain... its more diurnal in nature.  The air mass is not warming up overall in that time frame.

It is snow to rain. Your statement is non-sequitur. 

[Deweydog]

Looks like the Oregon coast outdoes Washington County.

[Kolk1604]

Not bad. Lows look good just need these highs to come down. Hope they do in future runs

[VancouverIslandSouth]

8 minutes ago, wxmet said:

It is snow to rain. Your statement is non-sequitur. 

Yeah, I was thinking the same. Winds become southerly/925mb temps warm with the passage of the front and the airmass becomes too humid to support evaporative cooling. It's a pretty common pattern with our snow-rain "cold" fronts. 

[SouthHillFrosty]

5 minutes ago, Kolk1604 said:

Not bad. Lows look good just need these highs to come down. Hope they do in future runs

@Kolk1604 4 inches for Puyallup? score!

[kokaneekidz]

43 minutes ago, Gummy said:

WRF GFS map is out, not buying those high snowfall totals though.

The GFS plumes mean from the noaa site show about the same totals as that Euro snowfall map.

 

 

 

 

What is this a Hood Canal upslope special? Brinnon does phenomenal in those setups. 

[Omegaraptor]

2020-21 is the warmest first half of winter ever recorded at PDX. 

Despite seemingly every alphabet soup indice being against it and favoring cold, it still somehow happens. 

Honestly, even though we could still have small localized events, I’m just about ready to stick my fork in for anything big or Arctic this winter. Hope nature surprises me, but it’s not looking good for the latter. Bring on the downvotes.

[Gradient Keeper]

2 minutes ago, Omegaraptor said:

2020-21 is the warmest first half of winter ever recorded at PDX. 

Despite seemingly every alphabet soup indice being against it, it still somehow happens. 

I think the back half of Winter is going to be vastly different.

[Jesse]

Euro looked chilly.

[SouthHillFrosty]

iFred throwing out @DJ Droppin of the conference calls with the NWS for being to positive.

[Jesse]

PDX down to 39 by midnight. Hopefully starting a nice long stretch of sub-40 lows.

[SnarkyGoblin]

24 minutes ago, Omegaraptor said:

2020-21 is the warmest first half of winter ever recorded at PDX. 

Despite seemingly every alphabet soup indice being against it and favoring cold, it still somehow happens. 

Honestly, even though we could still have small localized events, I’m just about ready to stick my fork in for anything big or Arctic this winter. Hope nature surprises me, but it’s not looking good for the latter. Bring on the downvotes.

It's because of our cyclical weather.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Looks like we made it down to 41F but now back up to 45F. Pleasant and warm-ish night with some fog. 56/41 today. +7.3F on the month so far. Still ahead on rainfall which is a nice change of pace.

[MWG]

We are 39 degrees and Fog which it’s typical around here. We have a dense fog advisory till 10am. Sometimes fog won’t burn off till maybe noon. 

[Gradient Keeper]

EPS must be a frosty turd or something. Maybe not even frosty. I don't yet see anything to suggest we see anything more than 2000-1000' snow levels perhaps dipping below that at times even though the 00z EURO suggested snow to the valley floor. IF the ridge Day 4-5 trends stronger with ridge bridge, and IF the PV lobe migrates further west/southwest the shortwave riding down the BC coast would be better connected to the bitter air mass. Maybe then we could consider legit snow chances for Portland, Seattle, etc. Onto the 6z and 12z runs today!

6z GFS in 1 hour 13 minutes

6z GEFS in 2 hours 44 minutes

12z GFS in 7 hours 13 minutes

12z GEM in 7 hours 43 minutes

12z GEFS in 8 hours 44 minutes

12z ECMWF in 9 hours 43 minutes

 

[Kolk1604]

3 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:

EPS must be a frosty turd or something. Maybe not even frosty. I don't yet see anything to suggest we see anything more than 2000-1000' snow levels perhaps dipping below that at times even though the 00z EURO suggested snow to the valley floor. IF the ridge Day 4-5 trends stronger with ridge bridge, and IF the PV lobe migrates further west/southwest the shortwave riding down the BC coast would be better connected to the bitter air mass. Maybe then we could consider legit snow chances for Portland, Seattle, etc. Onto the 6z and 12z runs today!

6z GFS in 1 hour 13 minutes

6z GEFS in 2 hours 44 minutes

12z GFS in 7 hours 13 minutes

12z GEM in 7 hours 43 minutes

12z GEFS in 8 hours 44 minutes

12z ECMWF in 9 hours 43 minutes

 

Yeah quite nights are no fun. At least Temps stay below normal right? That's a plus

[Kolk1604]

[Kolk1604]

Medford is a winner though

[Gradient Keeper]

At least we replenish and build our snow pack. Always an upside to everything, well unless you step in dog sh*t barefoot, or cat puke. Very little upside. No upside in fact. None.

[Cloud]

I'm gonna try something new and maybe it'll work in our favor. So gonna stop monitor the models next couple days and hopefully comes back to see significant changes. Not saying what we're seeing is bad but it can be so much better! I feel like a mental reset is needed anyway.

[Gradient Keeper]

6z GFS in 8 minutes...... I'll be here through Day 8? Then sleepy time. I have a big day of NOTHING ahead of me that I need to get proper rest for. Nah, furniture shopping...

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 1

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 2

(Past 4 runs)

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 3

(Past 4 runs)

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 4

(Past 4 runs)

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 5

(Past 4 runs)

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 5.5

(Past 4 runs)

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 6 AK Shortwave to ride down BC coast phasing with bitter air mass much better?

(Past 4 runs)

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 7 It's trying!

(Past 4 runs)