January 2021 weather observations for the PNW

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 6

(Past 4 runs)

[SilverFallsAndrew]

ICON is on board!

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 7 Not seeing it this run just a return to La Nina, which is fine.

(Past 4 runs)

[Gradient Keeper]

A step back in terms of 850mb temps Gorge, Columbia Basin. Onshore flow is roughly as cold as previous runs, but not enough for snow levels lower than 2000-1000'.

[Gradient Keeper]

I've noticed for a few weeks that whatever positive changes we see with 00z and 6z runs, the 12z run following them reverts away from that. This has been quite common recently.

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 8 522 dam heights Bellingham

[BLI snowman]

3 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:

I've noticed for a few weeks that whatever positive changes we see with 00z and 6z runs, the 12z run following them reverts away from that. This has been quite common recently.

I wouldn't say this run is a significant change of course at all. Pretty similar to the 06z, actually. 18z and 06z often trend colder as they tend to live on the edge a bit more.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Seems like another fairly chilly run.

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 9'er You can't get much closer to an arctic blast than these past several runs. If we had anymore amplification or if the ridge bridge held longer this would be an AMAZING pattern.

[Gradient Keeper]

12z GFS 10 Day Snowfall totals. A chilly run for sure.

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 10

[Gradient Keeper]

12z GEM Day 4 tracks the initial shortwave right down the BC Coast.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

For some reason the GEM thinks next Sunday will feature an overrunning snow event. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Onshore BLAST!

[High Desert Mat?]

1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Onshore BLAST!

Eh, I get shadowed pretty good. But nice trends and chilly runs for sure. 

[paulb/eugene]

Looks Jan 1971

[BLI snowman]

3 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

For some reason the GEM thinks next Sunday will feature an overrunning snow event. 

For some reason the ICON and the EURO (yes, the EURO) agree!

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Looks like a lot of cold rain on the 12z GFS.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

2 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

Looks like a lot of cold rain on the 12z GFS.

Time to hit up friends in Oakridge.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Time to hit up friends in Oakridge.

I stayed in a hotel there one night. It was like there was a fully-functioning small town with no one around at about 9PM.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

3 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

I stayed in a hotel there one night. It was like there was a fully-functioning small town with no one around at about 9PM.

I bet the meth lab was open. 

This run goes bananas with snow here at the end of next week. 

[Gradient Keeper]

12z GEM Day 6.5

[Gradient Keeper]

I know it's redundant, but with a few tweaks of the pattern here and there we would be looking at a snow-fest, snow-a-palooza, snow paradise!

[Cloud]

2 hours ago, ShawniganLake said:

 

That didn’t last long. 

I can explain myself! I didn’t realize the 6z was about to run as I posted that? So might as well?

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Good run, be many chances for snow in the low lands even with onshore flow and those 522 heights.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Well... I think it goes without saying how I feel about this run!

[Gradient Keeper]

12z GEFS Day 7 (Past 4 runs)

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

3 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Well... I think it goes without saying how I feel about this run!

Any place above 500ft will do well. Probable sea level snow at night.

[Gradient Keeper]

12z GEFS Day 9 (Past 4 runs) Nah......

[kokaneekidz]

There is a great read on SSW and the tropospheric polar vortex on cliffmass.blogspot.com it explains well what just happened in the upper atmosphere and how the jet reacts to it. 

[Gradient Keeper]

Not seeing any improvements on ensembles with 850s. I think we just may have to settle on 1000' snow levels perhaps lower at times, and a chance of slushy accumulations to sea level at night with any precip.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Hmmmm

[jakerepp]

1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Hmmmm

I don't dislike that. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, DJ Droppin said:

Not seeing any improvements on ensembles with 850s. I think we just may have to settle on 1000' snow levels perhaps lower at times, and a chance of slushy accumulations to sea level at night with any precip.

I think you are spot on. Really no chance of arctic air through the end of the month. It's going to be chilly, but it is going to be onshore flow for the most part. Places below 1000' could score if gradients go flat with moisture. Honestly these trends are a lot more encouraging than previous runs a couple days ago showing the trough offshore pumping in mild SW flow.

[paulb/eugene]

Living in the Willamette Valley can feel like being the ancient mariner with albatross on neck, the curse of low elevation and smothering layer of oceanic air

[Gradient Keeper]

1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I think you are spot on. Really no chance of arctic air through the end of the month. It's going to be chilly, but it is going to be onshore flow for the most part. Places below 1000' could score if gradients go flat with moisture. Honestly these trends are a lot more encouraging than previous runs a couple days ago showing the trough offshore pumping in mild SW flow.

Yeah far more encouraging than a couple of days ago. Bellingham, Ferndale, Lynden, to Winthrop, Twisp, Omak, Spokane could see modified arctic air at times.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

2 minutes ago, paulb/eugene said:

Living in the Willamette Valley can feel like being the ancient mariner with albatross on neck, the curse of low elevation and smothering layer of oceanic air

It is really interesting driving down from 1600' in cold onshore flow situations. The clouds hang very low, and its like once you break through the bottom layer of the clouds around 1000-1200' everything changes and you go from white to wet. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

The cold onshore flow setup shown next week through the end of the run is like something straight out of the 2008-2012 period. I doubt it verifies. 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Looks good!

[MossMan]

23 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

Any place above 500ft will do well. Probable sea level snow at night.

550’ right here! Woo Hoo!!!