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January 2021 weather observations for the PNW


MossMan

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5 minutes ago, 1000'NorthBend said:

Definitely, especially in the winter. That, plus the rain intensity differences I observe over my neighborhood as you get further from the mountain, are why I thought a weather station would be worth it at my location.

You’d be surprised that we likely get more sun than many homes in our neighborhood in the summer, simply because of dense tree coverage over many homes (actually.. you’re probably not surprised).

Least snow we’ve seen in a winter since we’ve moved here half a decade ago. Here’s hoping! 

Yeah... the lack of snow up here has been notable so far this year.    We will probably make up ground between now and March though.  

We cut down trees that get too big... have to keep it open for sunshine when it happens!    That neighborhood back there where you live is slowly thinning out it seems as people take down trees that are a danger to their homes or they come down in windstorms.  

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Hey look!

 

BECDBEC5-81C5-471C-A7FC-97DDFEA86D7A.jpeg

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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floop-cfs-2021011812.prateptype_cat_na.gif.30d501703f46267e33277f417af6f075.gif

Seattle gets its snowstorm of the century on that CFS run as well.

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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5 hours ago, TT-SEA said:

Speaking of ENSO... the models seems to indicate a return to neutral over the next few months,   

figure06.gif

Nope. Multiyear Niña incoming.

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Looks like the models are already beginning to factor in the expected MJO wave right around Feb 1.  The last two GFS runs have ended well and the 12z GFS ensemble in particular shows 850s on the way down again at the end.  The EPS mean shows it to some extent and the EPS control shows the huge block moving eastward and a major trough in the NW as well.

We could be looking at a situation with a decent pattern over the next 10 days followed by a brief period where the block migrates too far west and then comes back again.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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It appears the ECMWF weeklies have gone crazy with the snowfall as we get into Feb.  By far the best mean yet with over 10 inches being shown for SEA.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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8 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

You know best... that is your area of expertise.  

Sucks for me. But all precursors suggest the continuation of La Niña. Consolidated IPWP, lack of WWB activity/destructive interference w/ low pass signal, falling PMM thru cold season, etc.

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6 minutes ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said:

Not that I trust the CFS ENSO forecast in February, and in a month it might show the opposite, but it looks like it agrees with you.

image.thumb.png.dc696485efe477ad0cc7742d143995fd.png

That can easily go neutral.  I would say a weak La Nina next year, but for one, who cares about next year at this time, and two, that will probably be an improvement.

Can we keep the north/central pacific cooler this summer?  I think that means something.

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2 minutes ago, TheNewCulverJosh said:

That can easily go neutral.  I would say a weak La Nina next year, but for one, who cares about next year at this time, and two, that will probably be an improvement.

Can we keep the north/central pacific cooler this summer?  I think that means something.

I wonder what a 2nd year nina or cool neutral after a Nina would bring?  Considering we won't be coming off a Nino, maybe it will be different next fall and early winter.  But like you said, still a lot of winter left this year.

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5 minutes ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said:

I wonder what a 2nd year nina or cool neutral after a Nina would bring?  Considering we won't be coming off a Nino, maybe it will be different next fall and early winter.  But like you said, still a lot of winter left this year.

Last one happened in 2017. It's referred to as a double dip La Nina

https://komonews.com/weather/scotts-weather-blog/rejoice-skiers-la-nina-now-forecast-to-make-a-reappearance-this-winter

195572.png?1673757432

 

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Mild winter fun fact!!!

Through the first 18 days of 2021, PDX’s low max is 46 degrees.  This is unprecedented with only three other years only able to score a 45 degree max through the 18th.  Those are 2006, 1990 and 1945.  Two of those featured ARCTIC AIR in February.  

My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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16 minutes ago, Kolk1604 said:

That was a very +PMM La Niña, though. A peculiar inter-hemispheric disconnect. This doesn’t look like a repeat of 2017 IMO. 

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