TT-SEA Posted January 18, 2021 Report Share Posted January 18, 2021 5 minutes ago, 1000'NorthBend said: Definitely, especially in the winter. That, plus the rain intensity differences I observe over my neighborhood as you get further from the mountain, are why I thought a weather station would be worth it at my location. You’d be surprised that we likely get more sun than many homes in our neighborhood in the summer, simply because of dense tree coverage over many homes (actually.. you’re probably not surprised). Least snow we’ve seen in a winter since we’ve moved here half a decade ago. Here’s hoping! Yeah... the lack of snow up here has been notable so far this year. We will probably make up ground between now and March though. We cut down trees that get too big... have to keep it open for sunshine when it happens! That neighborhood back there where you live is slowly thinning out it seems as people take down trees that are a danger to their homes or they come down in windstorms. 1 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 18, 2021 Report Share Posted January 18, 2021 Hey look! 2 2 1 2 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthHillFrosty Posted January 18, 2021 Report Share Posted January 18, 2021 Just now, SilverFallsAndrew said: Hey look! Hour 384 delivering the goodies!!!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 18, 2021 Report Share Posted January 18, 2021 Just now, SouthHillFrosty said: Hour 384 delivering the goodies!!!! Actually hour 408! 2 1 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheNewCulverJosh Posted January 18, 2021 Report Share Posted January 18, 2021 2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said: Actually hour 408! May happen next week. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cloud Posted January 19, 2021 Report Share Posted January 19, 2021 6 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: Hey look! Onto February!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meatyorologist Posted January 19, 2021 Report Share Posted January 19, 2021 Seattle gets its snowstorm of the century on that CFS run as well. 1 Quote Weather stats for MBY Snowfall: -Total snowfall since joining: 50.25" -2018-19: 21" -2019-20: 2.5" -2020-21: 13" -2021-22: 8.75" -2022-23: 5.75" -2023-24*: 0.25" -Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024 -Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021 -Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019 Temperatures: -Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021 -Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021 -Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterdog Posted January 19, 2021 Report Share Posted January 19, 2021 Seattle gets 45" of snow by the 9th of February! 3 1 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthHillFrosty Posted January 19, 2021 Report Share Posted January 19, 2021 5 minutes ago, Acer said: Seattle gets 45" of snow by the 9th of February! Seattle becomes the north pole. Portland becomes Alaska and all is right in the world 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheNewCulverJosh Posted January 19, 2021 Report Share Posted January 19, 2021 6 minutes ago, Acer said: Seattle gets 45" of snow by the 9th of February! That run has to assume the entire USA is at the same elevation. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterdog Posted January 19, 2021 Report Share Posted January 19, 2021 A beautiful day today. 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthHillFrosty Posted January 19, 2021 Report Share Posted January 19, 2021 11 minutes ago, Acer said: Seattle gets 45" of snow by the 9th of February! Isn't it lower resolution past two weeks so It can't see evaluation very well? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tyler Mode Posted January 19, 2021 Report Share Posted January 19, 2021 Coldest weather I've experienced was last March. Between -52 and -55 up in Alaska. Was painful, but the northern lights were worth it IMG_4361-1920.mp4 IMG_4383-1920.mp4 8 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheNewCulverJosh Posted January 19, 2021 Report Share Posted January 19, 2021 2 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said: Isn't it lower resolution past two weeks so It can't see evaluation very well? Yep Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian_in_Leavenworth Posted January 19, 2021 Report Share Posted January 19, 2021 16 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said: Isn't it lower resolution past two weeks so It can't see evaluation very well? Guessing the CFS is at a low resolution at hour 1. GFS BTW is at a higher resolution through hour 240. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterdog Posted January 19, 2021 Report Share Posted January 19, 2021 18 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said: Isn't it lower resolution past two weeks so It can't see evaluation very well? I didn’t realize that you were responding to my post. It looks like SHF and Brian answered your question. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian_in_Leavenworth Posted January 19, 2021 Report Share Posted January 19, 2021 20 minutes ago, Tyler Mode said: Coldest weather I've experienced was last March. Between -52 and -55 up in Alaska. Was painful, but the northern lights were worth it IMG_4361-1920.mp4 IMG_4383-1920.mp4 On my bucket list. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kolk1604 Posted January 19, 2021 Report Share Posted January 19, 2021 34 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said: Isn't it lower resolution past two weeks so It can't see evaluation very well? I think this has the same issue but more realistic. February looks solid 2 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthHillFrosty Posted January 19, 2021 Report Share Posted January 19, 2021 I meant to say elevation not evaluation. I am surprised nobody corrected me! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OROR Posted January 19, 2021 Report Share Posted January 19, 2021 9 hours ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: Time to hit up friends in Oakridge. I live in Oakridge. You think we’ll get snow? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted January 19, 2021 Report Share Posted January 19, 2021 5 hours ago, TT-SEA said: Speaking of ENSO... the models seems to indicate a return to neutral over the next few months, Nope. Multiyear Niña incoming. 2 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 19, 2021 Report Share Posted January 19, 2021 2 minutes ago, Phil said: Nope. Multiyear Niña incoming. You know best... that is your area of expertise. 1 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted January 19, 2021 Report Share Posted January 19, 2021 Looks like the models are already beginning to factor in the expected MJO wave right around Feb 1. The last two GFS runs have ended well and the 12z GFS ensemble in particular shows 850s on the way down again at the end. The EPS mean shows it to some extent and the EPS control shows the huge block moving eastward and a major trough in the NW as well. We could be looking at a situation with a decent pattern over the next 10 days followed by a brief period where the block migrates too far west and then comes back again. 2 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted January 19, 2021 Report Share Posted January 19, 2021 It appears the ECMWF weeklies have gone crazy with the snowfall as we get into Feb. By far the best mean yet with over 10 inches being shown for SEA. 1 2 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted January 19, 2021 Report Share Posted January 19, 2021 8 minutes ago, TT-SEA said: You know best... that is your area of expertise. Sucks for me. But all precursors suggest the continuation of La Niña. Consolidated IPWP, lack of WWB activity/destructive interference w/ low pass signal, falling PMM thru cold season, etc. 3 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kolk1604 Posted January 19, 2021 Report Share Posted January 19, 2021 Looking good @MWG 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted January 19, 2021 Report Share Posted January 19, 2021 Snowy. 2 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian_in_Leavenworth Posted January 19, 2021 Report Share Posted January 19, 2021 1 hour ago, Phil said: Nope. Multiyear Niña incoming. Not that I trust the CFS ENSO forecast in January, and in a month it might show the opposite, but it looks like it agrees with you. 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheNewCulverJosh Posted January 19, 2021 Report Share Posted January 19, 2021 6 minutes ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said: Not that I trust the CFS ENSO forecast in February, and in a month it might show the opposite, but it looks like it agrees with you. That can easily go neutral. I would say a weak La Nina next year, but for one, who cares about next year at this time, and two, that will probably be an improvement. Can we keep the north/central pacific cooler this summer? I think that means something. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MWG Posted January 19, 2021 Report Share Posted January 19, 2021 13 minutes ago, Kolk1604 said: Looking good @MWG Oh my! crossing fingers and toes! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian_in_Leavenworth Posted January 19, 2021 Report Share Posted January 19, 2021 2 minutes ago, TheNewCulverJosh said: That can easily go neutral. I would say a weak La Nina next year, but for one, who cares about next year at this time, and two, that will probably be an improvement. Can we keep the north/central pacific cooler this summer? I think that means something. I wonder what a 2nd year nina or cool neutral after a Nina would bring? Considering we won't be coming off a Nino, maybe it will be different next fall and early winter. But like you said, still a lot of winter left this year. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kolk1604 Posted January 19, 2021 Report Share Posted January 19, 2021 5 minutes ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said: I wonder what a 2nd year nina or cool neutral after a Nina would bring? Considering we won't be coming off a Nino, maybe it will be different next fall and early winter. But like you said, still a lot of winter left this year. Last one happened in 2017. It's referred to as a double dip La Nina https://komonews.com/weather/scotts-weather-blog/rejoice-skiers-la-nina-now-forecast-to-make-a-reappearance-this-winter Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheNewCulverJosh Posted January 19, 2021 Report Share Posted January 19, 2021 And I definitely do not have the data like some of you brainiacs, but historically we have done the best, snow-wise, from cool neutrals, have we not? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted January 19, 2021 Report Share Posted January 19, 2021 Mild winter fun fact!!! Through the first 18 days of 2021, PDX’s low max is 46 degrees. This is unprecedented with only three other years only able to score a 45 degree max through the 18th. Those are 2006, 1990 and 1945. Two of those featured ARCTIC AIR in February. Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted January 19, 2021 Report Share Posted January 19, 2021 And next December is gonna be sexy AF. Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheNewCulverJosh Posted January 19, 2021 Report Share Posted January 19, 2021 1 minute ago, Deweydog said: And next December is gonna be sexy AF. Only if I streak down Culver highway with only xmas lights on my head. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted January 19, 2021 Report Share Posted January 19, 2021 16 minutes ago, Kolk1604 said: Last one happened in 2017. It's referred to as a double dip La Nina https://komonews.com/weather/scotts-weather-blog/rejoice-skiers-la-nina-now-forecast-to-make-a-reappearance-this-winter That was a very +PMM La Niña, though. A peculiar inter-hemispheric disconnect. This doesn’t look like a repeat of 2017 IMO. 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 19, 2021 Report Share Posted January 19, 2021 Pivotal is only at HR 12. Slowwwwwwwwww Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 19, 2021 Report Share Posted January 19, 2021 00z GFS Day 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 19, 2021 Report Share Posted January 19, 2021 Day 2 (Past 4 runs) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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