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January 2021 weather observations for the PNW


MossMan

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This system really does not have the look of a lowland snow producer. If it comes in early enough, I could see some cold air damming spots like Forest Grove starting as snow. Pretty good chance there is at least some light southerly flow at the surface. With the kind of southerly flow the GFS is showing it is not hard to imagine snow levels along the foothills/Cascades rising to around 2000-2500' briefly before dropping back down to 500-1000' in the post frontal airmass. All models continue to show out coldest airmass of the season behind the front. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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For most of western WA... almost all of the precip shown on the 12Z ECMWF over the next 10 days falls on Sunday.    Its basically dry until Sunday morning and then pretty much dry again for next week.    Any snow we get on Sunday might have a decent chance of sticking around for awhile.

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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9 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

For most of western WA... almost all of the precip shown on the 12Z ECMWF over the next 10 days falls on Sunday.    Its basically dry until Sunday morning and then pretty much dry again for next week.    Any snow we get on Sunday might have a decent chance of sticking around for awhile.

Guess my prediction of a foot of snow at my house by the 1st could be in jeopardy. 

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Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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22 minutes ago, Omegaraptor said:

Looks like PDX saw its first frost in 21 days this morning.

Luckily it's going to get a lot better from here on out.

First freeze. Frost can happen with temps well above freezing. I'm sure they had frost when they hit 34 and 35 back around the 10th.

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3 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Guess my prediction of a foot of snow at my house by the 1st could be in jeopardy. 

Its only January 19th... still time for things to change.

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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1 minute ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said:

Decent improvement with the EPS in the 5-10 day range.  A bit colder, deeper trough, and slower to go west of us.

Good news. I was just about to check it for that very trend.

Less retrogression of the mean trough position is what made this run so much better in the 5-10 day range. The GFS has been more aggressive with moving the trough axis offshore.

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2 minutes ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said:

Hour 216 EPS vs 228 last nights EPS

image.thumb.png.14ee7e5972f0c6d5e176a67b0c42f430.png

image.thumb.png.c6da2a362a9fcf9eddd0773f90e29b38.png

 

WOW! That is massive improvement. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Less than previous runs for here. Rats!

1612137600-TXd8Ldr8xxA.png

Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

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1612353600-kEOswdDDhh0.png

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Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

Venmo

GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope

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Just now, TigerWoodsLibido said:

1612353600-kEOswdDDhh0.png

Looks like we start working on that snow pack up and down the west coast. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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21 minutes ago, RentonHillTC said:

Just a wee bit soupy out there lads

4504A0BA-7119-4E33-9602-97E0A87E0FF3.jpeg

89F00981-4E3E-46BB-A151-0D548A0FA4C2.jpeg

I love that view... looking over Lake Washington towards downtown Seattle.    Is that the view from your house?

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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1 minute ago, hawkstwelve said:

Interesting bit there at the end with the ridge showing signs of moving east. Been too busy to be watching the EPS that closely so not sure if that's a new trend or not?

Could end up working out where we have a chillier few days, then the ridge and trough retrograde and we moderate a touch, and then they move back east and we drop into the colder pattern again during the 1st week of February.

That trend at the very end is new this morning.

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There's a pretty big fire starting to show up on Satellite near Yosemite, In the Middle of Jan! WTF is even going on anymore. Looking at the Santa Cruz Mt rainfall stats they had never recorded a Calendar year with precip being less than 20" in the last 100 years.

We have now had 3 such years in the last 7 years. It looks like the Mega droughts that were predicted are coming true. 

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20 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

I love that view... looking over Lake Washington towards downtown Seattle.    Is that the view from your house?

View from the end of my street where the cedar river water pipeline runs through the neighborhood and prevents any building from obstructing a fantastic viewpoint. 

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9 minutes ago, AlTahoe said:

There's a pretty big fire starting to show up on Satellite near Yosemite, In the Middle of Jan! WTF is even going on anymore. Looking at the Santa Cruz Mt rainfall stats they had never recorded a Calendar year with precip being less than 20" in the last 100 years.

We have now had 3 such years in the last 7 years. It looks like the Mega droughts that were predicted are coming true. 

A few years ago we had some fires in the coast range in February. I had never seen or heard of that occurring prior to that. About a week ago, I saw a snake. I've never seen a snake in January in my life until then. He was quite lethargic but managed to go back to his home.

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17 minutes ago, seattleweatherguy said:

what does the euro say about the same time period

Euro is a hair warmer. Don't have access to all the paid euro data but looks like weak/dead gradients but surface temps 34-35. Snow map shows accumulation but seems like it would be more of a snow in the air situation. 

IMO most likely outcome at this time at least here in the PDX area is snow in the air but no accumulation at the lowest elevations.  Looks doubtful for anything in WA lowlands as well I think.

prateptype_cat_ecmwf.us_nw.png

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