Omegaraptor Posted January 19, 2021 Report Share Posted January 19, 2021 Looks like PDX saw its first frost in 21 days this morning. Luckily it's going to get a lot better from here on out. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 19, 2021 Report Share Posted January 19, 2021 This system really does not have the look of a lowland snow producer. If it comes in early enough, I could see some cold air damming spots like Forest Grove starting as snow. Pretty good chance there is at least some light southerly flow at the surface. With the kind of southerly flow the GFS is showing it is not hard to imagine snow levels along the foothills/Cascades rising to around 2000-2500' briefly before dropping back down to 500-1000' in the post frontal airmass. All models continue to show out coldest airmass of the season behind the front. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted January 19, 2021 Report Share Posted January 19, 2021 1 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 19, 2021 Report Share Posted January 19, 2021 For most of western WA... almost all of the precip shown on the 12Z ECMWF over the next 10 days falls on Sunday. Its basically dry until Sunday morning and then pretty much dry again for next week. Any snow we get on Sunday might have a decent chance of sticking around for awhile. 1 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted January 19, 2021 Author Report Share Posted January 19, 2021 9 minutes ago, TT-SEA said: For most of western WA... almost all of the precip shown on the 12Z ECMWF over the next 10 days falls on Sunday. Its basically dry until Sunday morning and then pretty much dry again for next week. Any snow we get on Sunday might have a decent chance of sticking around for awhile. Guess my prediction of a foot of snow at my house by the 1st could be in jeopardy. 1 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted January 19, 2021 Report Share Posted January 19, 2021 That was a solidly chilly Euro run. Especially for next week, compared to the GFS. Would love to see it verify. Hard to imagine with everything seemingly trending warmer lately, but our luck has to turn around one of these days. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post MR.SNOWMIZER Posted January 19, 2021 Popular Post Report Share Posted January 19, 2021 My brother found a person who makes custom park signs with the same colors the park use. We had this sign made with our last name to install on our Property. Amazing how good it turned out. 10 1 Quote We come from the land of the ice and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted January 19, 2021 Report Share Posted January 19, 2021 22 minutes ago, Omegaraptor said: Looks like PDX saw its first frost in 21 days this morning. Luckily it's going to get a lot better from here on out. First freeze. Frost can happen with temps well above freezing. I'm sure they had frost when they hit 34 and 35 back around the 10th. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tyler Mode Posted January 19, 2021 Report Share Posted January 19, 2021 The Urban Heat Island explained in one simple picture 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 19, 2021 Report Share Posted January 19, 2021 3 minutes ago, MossMan said: Guess my prediction of a foot of snow at my house by the 1st could be in jeopardy. Its only January 19th... still time for things to change. 1 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kolk1604 Posted January 19, 2021 Report Share Posted January 19, 2021 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rubus Leucodermis Posted January 19, 2021 Report Share Posted January 19, 2021 59 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said: Warshington Good for me, good for Mossman, not so good for Seattle. It has been the general trend. 1 Quote It's called clown range for a reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian_in_Leavenworth Posted January 19, 2021 Report Share Posted January 19, 2021 Decent improvement with the EPS in the 5-10 day range. A bit colder, deeper trough, and slower to go west of us. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted January 19, 2021 Report Share Posted January 19, 2021 1 minute ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said: Decent improvement with the EPS in the 5-10 day range. A bit colder, deeper trough, and slower to go west of us. Good news. I was just about to check it for that very trend. Less retrogression of the mean trough position is what made this run so much better in the 5-10 day range. The GFS has been more aggressive with moving the trough axis offshore. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmet Posted January 19, 2021 Report Share Posted January 19, 2021 Looking forward to getting the trace amount of snow on ECMWF 1 1 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian_in_Leavenworth Posted January 19, 2021 Report Share Posted January 19, 2021 Hour 216 EPS vs 228 last nights EPS 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Omegaraptor Posted January 19, 2021 Report Share Posted January 19, 2021 Looking at the Mt Hood Meadows/Timberline forecasts and seeing lows consistently in the teens with highs below freezing brings a special kind of warmth to my heart. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian_in_Leavenworth Posted January 19, 2021 Report Share Posted January 19, 2021 Hour 168 today vs 180 last night 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 19, 2021 Report Share Posted January 19, 2021 2 minutes ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said: Hour 216 EPS vs 228 last nights EPS WOW! That is massive improvement. 1 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cloud Posted January 19, 2021 Report Share Posted January 19, 2021 Looks like the outflow will be enough to keep Portland solidly cold. May bode well for the area. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted January 19, 2021 Report Share Posted January 19, 2021 Less than previous runs for here. Rats! Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 19, 2021 Report Share Posted January 19, 2021 12Z EPS... Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted January 19, 2021 Report Share Posted January 19, 2021 2 Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 19, 2021 Report Share Posted January 19, 2021 Just now, TigerWoodsLibido said: Looks like we start working on that snow pack up and down the west coast. 4 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SalemDuck Posted January 19, 2021 Report Share Posted January 19, 2021 Tuesday's system will need to be tracked over the next week. That system has high potential and huge variance right now. 5 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RentonHill Posted January 19, 2021 Report Share Posted January 19, 2021 Just a wee bit soupy out there lads 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MR.SNOWMIZER Posted January 19, 2021 Report Share Posted January 19, 2021 44 minutes ago, 1000'NorthBend said: That looks fantastic, are they local or was it an Etsy-type situation? They are down by Astoria. 550 bucks shipped. I thought that was very fair. 2 1 Quote We come from the land of the ice and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 19, 2021 Report Share Posted January 19, 2021 21 minutes ago, RentonHillTC said: Just a wee bit soupy out there lads I love that view... looking over Lake Washington towards downtown Seattle. Is that the view from your house? 1 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 19, 2021 Report Share Posted January 19, 2021 1 minute ago, hawkstwelve said: Interesting bit there at the end with the ridge showing signs of moving east. Been too busy to be watching the EPS that closely so not sure if that's a new trend or not? Could end up working out where we have a chillier few days, then the ridge and trough retrograde and we moderate a touch, and then they move back east and we drop into the colder pattern again during the 1st week of February. That trend at the very end is new this morning. 3 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted January 19, 2021 Author Report Share Posted January 19, 2021 One year ago today my snow was almost all melted. 1 1 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted January 19, 2021 Report Share Posted January 19, 2021 One thing seems clear at this point as the dust settles from last week, looks like a meaningful and fairly persistent pattern change with any AL influence entirely removed from the picture. 4 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Perturbed Member Posted January 19, 2021 Report Share Posted January 19, 2021 WRF PDX Soundings Sunday AM 4 AM before precip 7 AM Snow total by early Monday AM It shows more Monday-Tuesday as well. Probably best to not take these grand total maps at face value... 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OysterPrintout Posted January 19, 2021 Report Share Posted January 19, 2021 8 minutes ago, nwsnow said: WRF PDX Soundings Sunday AM 4 AM before precip Hey a marginal setup what could go wrong for us??? I'm personally sick of the slam dunk patterns we've had around here lately. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlTahoe Posted January 19, 2021 Report Share Posted January 19, 2021 There's a pretty big fire starting to show up on Satellite near Yosemite, In the Middle of Jan! WTF is even going on anymore. Looking at the Santa Cruz Mt rainfall stats they had never recorded a Calendar year with precip being less than 20" in the last 100 years. We have now had 3 such years in the last 7 years. It looks like the Mega droughts that were predicted are coming true. 1 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RentonHill Posted January 19, 2021 Report Share Posted January 19, 2021 20 minutes ago, TT-SEA said: I love that view... looking over Lake Washington towards downtown Seattle. Is that the view from your house? View from the end of my street where the cedar river water pipeline runs through the neighborhood and prevents any building from obstructing a fantastic viewpoint. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
seattleweatherguy Posted January 19, 2021 Report Share Posted January 19, 2021 17 minutes ago, nwsnow said: WRF PDX Soundings Sunday AM 4 AM before precip 7 AM Snow total by early Monday AM It shows more Monday-Tuesday as well. Probably best to not take these grand total maps at face value... what does the euro say about the same time period Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dave Posted January 19, 2021 Report Share Posted January 19, 2021 9 minutes ago, AlTahoe said: There's a pretty big fire starting to show up on Satellite near Yosemite, In the Middle of Jan! WTF is even going on anymore. Looking at the Santa Cruz Mt rainfall stats they had never recorded a Calendar year with precip being less than 20" in the last 100 years. We have now had 3 such years in the last 7 years. It looks like the Mega droughts that were predicted are coming true. A few years ago we had some fires in the coast range in February. I had never seen or heard of that occurring prior to that. About a week ago, I saw a snake. I've never seen a snake in January in my life until then. He was quite lethargic but managed to go back to his home. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dave Posted January 19, 2021 Report Share Posted January 19, 2021 Mark Nelsen has cougars in his backyard. 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OysterPrintout Posted January 19, 2021 Report Share Posted January 19, 2021 Probably get skunked on any of the grey colors and a fair share of the light blue here so EPS says maybe 1/4 maybe 1/5ish chance of actual accumulation here for the Sun/Mon system but let's get that half a foot member verified I think. Some more blue members by the end tho. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Perturbed Member Posted January 19, 2021 Report Share Posted January 19, 2021 17 minutes ago, seattleweatherguy said: what does the euro say about the same time period Euro is a hair warmer. Don't have access to all the paid euro data but looks like weak/dead gradients but surface temps 34-35. Snow map shows accumulation but seems like it would be more of a snow in the air situation. IMO most likely outcome at this time at least here in the PDX area is snow in the air but no accumulation at the lowest elevations. Looks doubtful for anything in WA lowlands as well I think. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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