January 2021 weather observations for the PNW

[Winterdog]

Just now, MossMan said:

Fork it all to heck. 
Next winter will be our time to shine.

Good to have you onboard!  

[TacomaWaWx]

12 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

Indeed we can, and I’m particularly well set for it. But, still a lot less likely than a month or two earlier.

Just looked back at the numbers for February 2018 and 2011. 33/28 on 2/20 and 33/26 on 2/21 during the 2018 event...not bad. Then in 2011 it was 33/28 on 2/24 30/25 on 2/25 and 32/22 on 2/26. Late February 2011 was one of my favorites. 

[paulb/eugene]

Maybe we will get one of those quick hitting Feb 1933 arctic air masses which give us one day in the 20s and teens and then back to usual mild winter weather without any snow at all.  

[BLI snowman]

 

11 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Fork it all to heck. 
Next winter will be our time to shine.

Horrible winter + frigid spring + fire-filled summer inferno

We did it in 1967, too! 

 

[MossMan]

Took a drive to Yakima and back this morning. Lots of snow at the summit of Snoqualmie but nothing a few miles west or east of that. Lowest temp I recorded during the drive was 27 in the Cle Elum area. Pathetic. Even the snow at the top looked sloppy at 35 degrees.  

[SouthHillFrosty]

I wonder if I could hit a 1000 days without having an inch of accumulating snow at my house. Easily hit that by next year

[AlTahoe]

11 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Took a drive to Yakima and back this morning. Lots of snow at the summit of Snoqualmie but nothing a few miles west or east of that. Lowest temp I recorded during the drive was 27 in the Cle Elum area. Pathetic. Even the snow at the top looked sloppy at 35 degrees.  

Current view of the meadow (6300') in my neighborhood and the coyote that was aggressively following my dog and I. This could pass as late Oct. 

[GHweatherChris]

[Rubus Leucodermis]

[TT-SEA]

12Z EPS...

[Rubus Leucodermis]

4 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

I wonder if I could hit a 1000 days without having an inch of accumulating snow at my house. Easily hit that by next year

It looks like I’m going to hit 30 days since that last happened. Last fall I knew this winter was being overhyped by many (sorry, La Niña is not the best scenario for epic amounts of lowland snow) but I was still expecting below-normal temps and near-normal snowfall in the lowlands, not the epic torch that we instead got.

Oh well, still chance for a February surprise. It just won’t be as cold as it would have been earlier in the season.

[FroYoBro]

Invest in sad faces today. The demand is going through the roof! 

[Jesse]

PDX sitting at just 41 at the noon hour.

#arcticblast

#thanksbiden

[TigerWoodsLibido]

2 minutes ago, AlTahoe said:

Current view of the meadow (6300') in my neighborhood and the coyote that was aggressively following my dog and I. This could pass as late Oct. 

Funny story...our coldest temp so far has been 23F...all the way back on Oct 26...

We are likely going to go 4 consecutive winters without a sub-freezing high, which has never happened in the record books.

[MossMan]

Think my lowest temp this season so far was 27 which I think was in November? I don’t even know anymore. Pathetic. 

[Meatyorologist]

I'm not ready to cancel winter yet. But once mid February comes... We'll see what models show then. Overall a very disappointing season so far.

[Deweydog]

[Meatyorologist]

I'm still more bullish on early February for a better chance at some arctic air, as the MJO migrates to phases 6/7 and the jet stays retracted. Could be nothing, too. Time will tell.

[Jesse]

Just now, Meatyorologist said:

I'm still more bullish on early February for a better chance at some arctic air, as the MJO migrates to phases 6/7 and the jet stays retracted. Could be nothing, too. Time will tell.

Probably a good bet that it is generally chilly with decent mountain and foothill snow at times between now and April. Anything beyond that comes down to details.

[TacomaWaWx]

Just now, Meatyorologist said:

I'm still more bullish on early February for a better chance at some arctic air, as the MJO migrates to phases 6/7 and the jet stays retracted. Could be nothing, too. Time will tell.

February has been good to us lately. Hopefully we can manage to thread the needle and get a little snow next week and then get something meaningful next month. Still 39 days until March starts lots of time until spring arrives. 

[MossMan]

Didn’t we have a false start in January 2019 as well? I’m grasping for straws at this point...But...

[Deweydog]

For the “local” folks, it’s pretty incredible how snow starved Silver Star is on January 20th, 51 days into winter. Chances are it will have more snow atop it in May.

[Meatyorologist]

Just now, TacomaWaWx said:

February has been good to us lately. Hopefully we can manage to thread the needle and get a little snow next week and then get something meaningful next month. Still 39 days until March starts lots of time until spring arrives. 

Right. The sun angle argument only really applies after mid February. After then we do need a little extra help to see subfreezing highs and whatnot. It's no coincidence our all-time low occurred after mid January.

Though for those really cold high temperatures, it does get more difficult outside of January/early Feb.

[Jesse]

1 minute ago, Deweydog said:

For the “local” folks, it’s pretty incredible how snow starved Silver Star is on January 20th, 51 days into winter. Chances are it will have more snow atop it in May.

I was thinking things were off to such a good start with those chilly storms in mid-November. We went snowshoeing on a decent early season snowpack two months ago.

[TacomaWaWx]

11 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Think my lowest temp this season so far was 27 which I think was in November? I don’t even know anymore. Pathetic. 

Yeah we haven’t even hit the 20s yet and it’s late January now. February will have to be pretty d*mn good to make up for how bad this winters been so far. I thought last winter was lame...but atleast we had 1.5” of snow at this point and had some lows in the 20s too. 

[AbbyJr]

Model trends have me starting to even doubt our chances for February. What looked like a solid cold and snowy pattern last week has fallen apart.

Looks like the Alaskan trough wants to emerge to start of February too. Still potential but the fact that the SSW did not send the Polar Vortex into North America really messed things up for us.

That said, model reliability so far this winter has been non-existent. Thus, an arctic outbreak for February could easily show up in the models next week. I think its worth giving the operational GFS a bit more credit than it normally gets. Its not been perfect but it seems like its even outperformed the ensembles this time around. I thought for sure it was clueless when over 50% of the of the members showed an arctic blast coming into the PNW. Turns out, the ensembles were clueless, which is rare.

[Jesse]

Just now, AbbyJr said:

Model trends have me starting to even doubt our chances for February. What looked like a solid cold and snowy pattern last week has fallen apart.

Looks like the Alaskan trough wants to emerge to start of February too. Still potential but the fact that the SSW did not send the Polar Vortex into North America really messed things up for us.

That said, model reliability so far this winter has been non-existent. Thus, an arctic outbreak for February could easily show up in the models next week. I think its worth giving the operational GFS a bit more credit than it normally gets. Its not been perfect but it seems like its even outperformed the ensembles this time around. I thought for sure it was clueless when over 50% of the of the members showed an arctic blast coming into the PNW. Turns out, the ensembles were clueless, which is rare.

Do you think the SSW will help our chances? 

[TacomaWaWx]

28 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

I wonder if I could hit a 1000 days without having an inch of accumulating snow at my house. Easily hit that by next year

You didn’t even manage 1” during January 2020? I figured your location would have done better than mine...we had 1” exactly on the morning of 1/14. 

[Dave]

Not a single frame from the Euro by anyone? That speaks for itself. What a f@ckin disaster.

[BLI snowman]

 

6 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Didn’t we have a false start in January 2019 as well? I’m grasping for straws at this point...But...

Don't think so, and at this point in 2019 we were at least staring down a pretty impressively bitter arctic airmass that was forming in Canada and swung down into the Midwest, right before we got cold. Chicago dropped to -23 with that. Their coldest temp this winter so far is 8 with nothing colder looking possible any time soon.

[The Blob]

I'm starting to think the '16-'17 winter has ruined any expectations for winter in the PNW. It was an awesome first winter.

[Jesse]

2 minutes ago, dolt said:

Not a single frame from the Euro by anyone? That speaks for itself. What a f@ckin disaster.

At least its not foggy. Or windy. Or rainy. Or hand crushing. Or whatever else.

[TacomaWaWx]

5 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

Right. The sun angle argument only really applies after mid February. After then we do need a little extra help to see subfreezing highs and whatnot. It's no coincidence our all-time low occurred after mid January.

Though for those really cold high temperatures, it does get more difficult outside of January/early Feb.

We’re probably not going to get any crazy cold Arctic temps this winter IMO. We could definitely get some snow next month though...and maybe if we’re lucky next week some places with a little elevation might get a dusting-1” if we thread the needle.

[BLI snowman]

7 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

For the “local” folks, it’s pretty incredible how snow starved Silver Star is on January 20th, 51 days into winter. Chances are it will have more snow atop it in May.

I would honestly have been more surprised if there was much up there right now, given the fact that it's a contemporary January.

[Dave]

1 minute ago, Jesse said:

At least its not foggy. Or windy. Or rainy. Or whatever else.

It is sunny and nice out and there are shady puddles that are still partially frozen. This is winter at its best!

[Dave]

Time for an avatar change. 

[AbbyJr]

8 minutes ago, Jesse said:

Do you think the SSW will help our chances? 

Didn't the SSW happen already and initiate the 500mb pattern change? The problem is that the Polar Vortex never made it into North America and that stubborn Alaskan vortex looks to return. The pattern did flip to La Nina but the North Pacific ridge never amplified over the GOA with a favourable West Coast trough. That is something I think would have happened had the Polar Vortex dropped into North America. Cold onshore flow before the stubborn Alaskan vortex returns by early February seems likely.

Of course Phil has said the SSW wind reversal only peaked a few days ago, so if he's right, then winter may still have hope. But it seems the SSW event had little effects on North America this winter.

[Meatyorologist]

Just now, AbbyJr said:

Didn't the SSW happen already and initiate the 500mb pattern change? The problem is that the Polar Vortex never made it into North America and that stubborn Alaskan vortex looks to return. The pattern did flip to La Nina but the North Pacific ridge never amplified properly, something I think that would have happened had the Polar Vortex dropepd into North America. Cold onshore flow before the stubborn Alaskan vortex returns by early February seems likely.

Of course Phil has said the SSW wind reversal only peaked a few days ago, so if he's right, then winter may still have hope.
But it seems the SSW event had little effects on North America this winter.

This is not an AK vortex pattern.

[BLI snowman]

4 minutes ago, The Blob said:

I'm starting to think the '16-'17 winter has ruined any expectations for winter in the PNW. It was an awesome first winter.

Yeah, in many ways that was our best and most consistent winter in decades. A fluke of sorts, and one that will only be increasingly rare in the future as the climate continues to warm.

[MWG]

Cold morning here I think it was 27 degrees. Right now it’s sunny and 42. Reading looks like winter is donzo?