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January 2021 weather observations for the PNW


MossMan

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45 minutes ago, MossMan said:

I just noticed on a FB weather group that a Moses Lake resident posted that their coldest temp so far this season was 17 degrees on October 17th...MID OCTOBER! That is why I hate seeing cold snaps in October, so many times I have seen winters take a dump afterward a big October cold snap. 

19DB02D0-2F39-4DD6-AA2C-ECE6AF2334B9.jpeg

Thank you. Been saying this since 2002.

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Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

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GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope

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10 minutes ago, Kolk1604 said:

Totals keep going up for some. Maybe I should move to Medford where most members are extreme

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I would like a Member E36 (Everett) supersized and to go please and thank you! 

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Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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For instance, note how the TPV in SW Canada is already several hundred miles NW by D5 on the 18z GFS versus 12z projection. That’s a huge shift with only slight changes in initialized conditions. This is one of those patterns where the very slightest of short range errors can have massive implications by the end of week one.

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1 minute ago, Jesse said:

And it's as untrue now as it was then.

We had a decent cold snap in October 2006 and 06/07 ended up being a pretty decent winter. Just hasn’t been good the last 2 years. 

Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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10 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

What is some years with counterpoints that make this statement invalid? Just curious

Well I mean for starters you said prolonged early season cold snap. The one last October was a pretty quick hitter that lasted just a few days. Last October was solidly warm.

Early season cold snaps are by no means a guarantee for something good but they are not a kiss of death either. This century so far, 2017, 2013, 2009, 2008, 2006 and 2003 had chilly Octobers or a standalone cold airmass in October which lead to "goods" down the road. On the other hand 2019, 2002 and 2000 had October chill that didn't amount to much. 

As to how our mini-event last year ends up working out for this winter, we won't really know until March.

 

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Just now, Jesse said:

Well I mean for starters you said prolonged early season cold snap. The one last October was a pretty quick hitter that lasted just a few days.

Early season cold snaps are by no means a guarantee for something good but they are not a kiss of death either. This century so far, 2017, 2013, 2009, and 2006 and 2003 had chilly Octobers or a standalone cold airmass in October which lead to "goods" down the road. On the other hand 2019, 2002 and 2000 had October chill that didn't amount to much. 

As to how our mini-event this year ends up working out for this winter, we won't really know until March.

 

This October's cold snap lasted for 10-14 days right? Wouldn't that be prolonged? Thinking back, those years did have early cold but snow later on!

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3 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

We had a decent cold snap in October 2006 and 06/07 ended up being a pretty decent winter. Just hasn’t been good the last 2 years. 

There’s no statistically significant correlation between the October weather pattern and that of the subsequent winter. Anecdotal recollections are easy to fall victim to, especially in a constantly+nonlinearly evolving system.

In fact, the tropical forcing(s) that most favors western cold in October (WHEM to W-IO transit) ends up favoring warmth by January. 😂

Seasonal transitions are extremely complicated. That’s the *least* likely timeframe for low pass correlations to emerge.

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1 minute ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

This October's cold snap lasted for 10-14 days right? Wouldn't that be prolonged? Thinking back, those years did have early cold but snow later on!

You might be thinking of 2019? That one was cold most of the month. Last October had the airmass on the 25th-26th that brought a quick shot of cold air and some record lows, but things rebounded back to close to average after a few days. October 2020 ended up on the warm side overall.

And yeah its a mixed bag. But given our climate history I would always take my chances with a chilly or stormy pattern in October, especially during a La Nina. It's usually a good sign at very least that cold air is getting an early start on the North American side of the pole.

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6 minutes ago, Jesse said:

You might be thinking of 2019? That one was cold most of the month. Last October had the airmass on the 25th-26th that brought a quick shot of cold air and some record lows, but things rebounded back to close to average after a few days. October 2020 ended up on the warm side overall.

And yeah its a mixed bag. But given our climate history I would always take my chances with a chilly or stormy pattern in October, especially during a La Nina. It's usually a good sign at very least that cold air is getting an early start on the North American side of the pole.

Except that didn’t happen and hasn’t happened. All the cold is on the other side of the pole.

If we end up with nothing down this way then it still counts as another crappy year following an interesting October as far as I’m concerned.

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Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

Venmo

GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope

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12 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

While snow totals will obviously fluctuate, it's looking a little more likely that most of us should see a couple different chances at some minor accumulations. Certainly could be worse than that.

Definitely. Just getting a little something at this point would boost us from the winter of 15-16 dud territory. I just want to get some snow pics! 

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Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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15 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

Except that didn’t happen and hasn’t happened. All the cold is on the other side of the pole.

If we end up with nothing down this way then it still counts as another crappy year following an interesting October as far as I’m concerned.

This October was warm and honestly not very interesting aside from the two day cold snap.

You can believe whatever you want to believe. You prove that frequently here lol. But the list of years I made for Frosty on the last page shows that cold in October has worked out more often than not, even since the turn of the millennium.

Acting like it's always a kiss of death is nothing better than superstition fueled by confirmation bias. Same could be said for acting like it's always a slam dunk. Truth is its a mixed bag and largely dependent on ENSO state.

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39 minutes ago, Phil said:

That is true. To clarify, I’m not claiming to be one hundred percent accurate here. That TPV might very well get hung up in Canada. Or it could dive into the Western and/or Central CONUS. It’s a fickle situation where small changes to initial conditions can have significant repercussions.

Which is why I left all of those possibilities open. 😉 The only thing I was/still am confident of is a favorable long wave pattern progression for cold/snow in PNW region.

 

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The only thing I was/still am confident of is a favorable long wave pattern progression for cold/snow in PNW region.

When do you expect this pattern to set up in the PNW? Early, mid, or late February?

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1 hour ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

Off topic but i have terrible cell service at my home and only dish internet is available. I had 1 bar of 4g and so i did research on signal boosters and purchased one. I now have 4 bars 4g and my download speed went from 10-12 to 40 -45!! pretty amazed it worked. 

I got a fancy booster through work, and it cannot work here, there is absolutely 0 signal to boost. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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3 minutes ago, AbbyJr said:

When do you expect this pattern to set up in the PNW? Early, mid, or late February?

It’s already establishing. Just need some minor tweaks over NPAC/W-Arctic to drive arctic air south of the border.

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4 minutes ago, Jesse said:

This October was warm and honestly not very interesting aside from the two day cold snap.

You can believe whatever you want to believe. You prove that frequently here lol. But the list of years I made for Frosty on the last page even shows that cold in October has worked out more often than not, even since the turn of the millennium.

Acting like its a kiss of death is nothing better than superstition fueled by confirmation bias. Same could be said for acting like its always a slam dunk. Truth is its a mixed bag and largely dependent on ENSO state.

From the research I have done a really wet October is one of the best signs. Doesn't always work out (2012), but 2016 tracked well with history. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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18z is a mess of suppressed lows and anafronts. I think we are going to see some surprises (Good and bad) over the next couple of weeks. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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I feel like Tahoe Al is going to get the goods. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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