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January 2021 weather observations for the PNW


MossMan

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3 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

From the research I have done a really wet October is one of the best signs. Doesn't always work out (2012), but 2016 tracked well with history. 

Yeah, cool and/or active is rarely a bad bet Andrew.

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I was outside doing some yardwork and noticed we had a brisk breeze out of the north.  I would love to just get some real cold at this point.....outside of one day when I think we hit about 24-25, it just hasn't been getting that cold at night.

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8 minutes ago, Jesse said:

Yeah, cool and/or active is rarely a bad bet Andrew.

Didn't work out for us in October 2019, only colder October's on record at SLE were 1949 and 1919. LOLz

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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8 minutes ago, Acer said:

The ridge building into Alaska from the west has good amplification and is moving eastward at 276 hours.  The basic setup is looking promising if it continues.  

edit: hour 300 just dashed that hope

Wow, that was a ridiculous post.  What's wrong with you?  Get another hobby you dumb sh*t.

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2 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Didn't work out for us in October 2019, only colder October's on record at SLE were 1949 and 1919. LOLz

I’m going to take that one sample and crystallize it into an absolutely irrational fear of anything resembling longwave troughing before 12/1.

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4 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Didn't work out for us in October 2019, only colder October's on record at SLE were 1949 and 1919. LOLz

Of course calling that month active would be a stretch. Chilly and dry. Felt like we got a taste of central Oregon’s October climo that year.

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19 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

From the research I have done a really wet October is one of the best signs. Doesn't always work out (2012), but 2016 tracked well with history. 

I looked into that a year ago (following a similar debate on here) and found a very weak negative correlation between Oct precip & DJF temp departures.

Basically useless. Not even remotely close to statistical significance.

There are individual cases where you have a highly anomalous pattern in October (see: 2009, for example) where it actually is indicative of something on the larger scale. But that’s only after understanding *why* the pattern is occurring.

Because that *same pattern* could emerge through a wide array of in-situ boundary conditions. Some of which evolve in ways that offer no predictive benefit whatsoever, while others are more foundational and can be extrapolated from, at least statistically (even then it can fail).

In the end, this stuff isn’t useful for making long range projections. 

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No action for here on the 18z. Oh well...the usual.

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Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

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GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope

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6 minutes ago, Phil said:

I looked into that a year ago (following a similar debate on here) and found a very weak negative correlation between Oct precip & DJF temp departures.

Basically useless. Not even remotely close to statistical significance.

There are individual cases where you have a highly anomalous pattern in October (see: 2009, for example) where it actually is indicative of something on the larger scale. But that’s only after understanding *why* the pattern is occurring.

Because that *same pattern* could emerge through a wide array of in-situ boundary conditions. Some of which evolve in ways that offer no predictive benefit whatsoever, while others are more foundational and can be extrapolated from, at least statistically (even then it can fail).

In the end, this stuff isn’t useful for making long range projections. 

Sort of a different way of making my same point. It's largely dependent upon the context of the year in question. But by no means a stand alone, universal predictor either way.

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9 minutes ago, Phil said:

I looked into that a year ago (following a similar debate on here) and found a very weak negative correlation between Oct precip & DJF temp departures.

Basically useless. Not even remotely close to statistical significance.

There are individual cases where you have a highly anomalous pattern in October (see: 2009, for example) where it actually is indicative of something on the larger scale. But that’s only after understanding *why* the pattern is occurring.

Because that *same pattern* could emerge through a wide array of in-situ boundary conditions. Some of which evolve in ways that offer no predictive benefit whatsoever, while others are more foundational and can be extrapolated from, at least statistically (even then it can fail).

In the end, this stuff isn’t useful for making long range projections. 

As years go on here that will continue to change. Been a trend I’ve noticed since my senior year of HS, one of the 4 worst winters for me here. Along with 91-92, 14-15, and 19-20.

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Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

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GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope

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23 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

As years go on here that will continue to change. Been a trend I’ve noticed since my senior year of HS, one of the 4 worst winters for me here. Along with 91-92, 14-15, and 19-20.

October 2014 was one of our warmest on record...

I already made a list of all the years since 2000 that it's worked out, versus those that it hasn't. It's a sign of strength to be able to modify your opinions when provided with ample evidence to the contrary.

I'm not even trying to argue that cold in October is always good, just that it's not always bad and in fact there are many examples of both.

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44/41 today with 0.12” of rain. Atleast we’ve got something to look for on the models. Looking like in and around the Seattle area...our best shot at some snow down to sea level will be Wednesday morning. 

Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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532248928_500h_anom.npac(4).thumb.png.5a9b5088087f09a73c9dcd29fa35fa2c.png

850t_anom_npac.thumb.png.735a39991e64e9a398bafc17f27e761d.png

Well that's new... If we can get that block further east, we'll send that cold air in central Canada southward.

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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trend-gfs-2021012118-f222.500h_anom_npac.gif.818e3012044c1aaf69e408d4b3e3dd24.gif

Unfortunately, it looks like there hasn't been any eastward shift with that block center over the last 24 hours. That could easily change, though.

Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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11 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

532248928_500h_anom.npac(4).thumb.png.5a9b5088087f09a73c9dcd29fa35fa2c.png

850t_anom_npac.thumb.png.735a39991e64e9a398bafc17f27e761d.png

Well that's new... If we can get that block further east, we'll send that cold air in central Canada southward.

Yeah, I could definitely see that turning into a Fraser River event with some northern bleed-in. Think we might see it emerge on some future runs as it plays around with the block. 

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1 minute ago, MossMan said:

This has been a very long month. 

People have been either expecting an absolute snowmaggeddon or an endless torchfest. It's been a very polarizing and overemotional past few weeks, partly due to the admittedly huge expectations for this winter, but also due to its sheer disappointment thus far.

Though I'm reserving criticism for those who are (rightly) disappointed, even if what they are saying is untrue or their logic is flawed, because of the wildfires this last September. I think we all collectively shudder when thinking about them, and a few members lost property and livestock during those three weeks, or otherwise had the oppressiveness of the sun-blotching smoke compound on health problems and depression, all that stuff. This Spring will almost surely replenish the Oregon Cascade snowpack, that much is clear. Or at least, it will make up the necessary ground to prevent a total disaster next summer.

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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15 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

Yeah, I could definitely see that turning into a Fraser River event with some northern bleed-in. Think we might see it emerge on some future runs as it plays around with the block. 

And all of my annoying whining will pay off...Just like it did in February of 2018! 

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Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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2 hours ago, 1000'NorthBend said:

I lived in Yreka for a summer, fell in love with the Klamath National Forest. The weather was a bit too hot for me but I’m not too tolerant of temps over 85. There was a stream I would visit that drained from glaciers on Shasta that had near-DAILY small debris flows from intense glacial melt late in the day. 

Not only is it a beautiful area but some of the best gold prospecting in the US is just to the west. Next time I’m down that way I’d love to try prospecting. Haven't been to Jacksonville or the Applegate River (great river for prospecting, or so I've heard) so I'll have to go there too.

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2 hours ago, TT-SEA said:

I put them on back in late October... but have taken them off numerous times since then to use the hose during yard work since there has been no snow cover at all this winter.

And I don't think the covers are really needed unless the temp stays below freezing during the day as well.

Agree, that’s when mine will go on and I really really want to put mine on!!!

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2 hours ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

Off topic but i have terrible cell service at my home and only dish internet is available. I had 1 bar of 4g and so i did research on signal boosters and purchased one. I now have 4 bars 4g and my download speed went from 10-12 to 40 -45!! pretty amazed it worked. 

Cool when these toys actually work!! 

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1 hour ago, AbbyJr said:

 

Yeah this is some bizarre s**t. Closest one I can think of is 1998/99.

SSW in December 1998, then another in Feb 1999. But those were separated by 9+ weeks and at very different stages in the seasonal/radiative cycle(s).

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Kind of a bleak damp day here .

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Though as far as I know wind reversals should be separated by 20 consecutive days of westerlies @ 60N/10mb to qualify as separate events.

In this case it is a new set of wave breaks coming out of Eurasia (again) however there likely wouldn’t be a second SSW without the first one rendering the vortex so vulnerable to WAFz, so 🤷‍♀️.

My brain views it as single event/process, as would the conventional definition, even if it technically isn’t. 

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1 hour ago, Chewbacca Defense said:

I was outside doing some yardwork and noticed we had a brisk breeze out of the north.  I would love to just get some real cold at this point.....outside of one day when I think we hit about 24-25, it just hasn't been getting that cold at night.

I picked up on that as well as I was walking from my car into Lows.  I did the Bill Paxton look from twister.  Quite the powerful moment 

EB2269B5-DD81-4B26-8D69-BD3730870E17.jpeg

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