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January 2021 weather observations for the PNW


MossMan

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54 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

Seems like a situation where the East will be very overdue for some significant cold. This winter is obviously hot trash and they mostly missed out in 2018-19 and of course 2016-17. They did okay in the first half of 2017-18.

2018/19 was worlds better than 2017/18 here. Got a foot of snow with one storm in Jan 2019 and an epic snow squall along the arctic front with 70mph winds and thunder/lightning.

2017/18 was just a lot of dry cold and wind. Took until late March 2018 to get a 3”+ snowfall here.

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2 minutes ago, Phil said:

2018/19 was worlds better than 2017/18 here. Got a foot of snow with one storm in Jan 2019 and an epic snow squall along the arctic front with 70mph winds and thunder/lightning.

2017/18 was just a lot of dry cold and wind. Took until late March 2018 to get a 3”+ snowfall here.

I was in DC and Pennsylvania for about 10 days in March 2018, it was pretty cold/snowy. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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1612267200-NOyYlIBuqGU.png

1612267200-MoMvJBoI2rw.png

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Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

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58 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Total snow through Monday morning per 12Z ECMWF... c-zone signature is pretty much gone.

 

ecmwf-deterministic-washington-total_snow_10to1-1576000.png

Probably the most realistic solution at this point, some models bring the low in a bit further south but climate would tend to have reforming in the Olympic shadow when it hits the coast. Almost guaranteed to get nothing here but Inland / East Vancouver Island will get slammed.

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1 hour ago, Front Ranger said:

Even in the LAMEST WINTER EVER, Spain has already seen their coldest temperature on record (normally balmy Madrid fell to 3 degrees), and Beijing saw their coldest temps since 1966 earlier this month.

Definitely a lot of IMBYism with the commentary here of late. Sure North America has been left out of the fun *so far*, but the extent of NH cold is actually very impressive. Similar thing happened in 2011/12, where the rest of the NH went into the freezer while North America torched.

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1 minute ago, Phil said:

 

Definitely a lot of IMBYism with the commentary here of late. Sure North America has been left out of the fun so far, but the extend of NH cold is actually very impressive. Similar thing happened in 2011/12, where the rest of the NH went into the freezer while North America torched.

I’ve always kinda considered North America my own backyard. The septic tank is under the DC area.

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My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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5 minutes ago, Jesse said:

Assuming PDX makes it to 45-ish today, this January will drop behind 2020 and 2018 to fourth warmest on record by tomorrow.

#eightwholedayslefttoo

#wegotthis

SLE is “only” running a +3.8 departure through yesterday. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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6 minutes ago, Jesse said:

Assuming PDX makes it to 45-ish today, this January will drop behind 2020 and 2018 to fourth warmest on record by tomorrow.

#eightwholedayslefttoo

#wegotthis

Tweak things just a tiny bit and suddenly my average temps call doesn’t look quite so weenified.

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My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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Imagine this for PDX:


URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Reno NV
1001 AM PST Sat Jan 23 2021

CAZ072-NVZ002-241815-
/O.NEW.KREV.WS.A.0001.210127T0000Z-210129T1200Z/
/O.CON.KREV.WW.Y.0003.210125T0000Z-210125T1800Z/
Greater Lake Tahoe Area-
Including the cities of South Lake Tahoe, Truckee, Stateline,
and Incline Village
1001 AM PST Sat Jan 23 2021

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM SUNDAY TO
10 AM PST MONDAY...
...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
LATE THURSDAY NIGHT...

* CHANGES...Added Winter Storm Watch for Tuesday afternoon through
  Thursday night.

* WHAT...For the Winter Weather Advisory, snow expected. Total
  snow accumulations of 3 to 6 inches with up to 12 inches above
  7000 feet. For the Winter Storm Watch, heavy snow possible.
  Total snow accumulations of 1 to 3 feet, with 3 to 6 feet above
  7000 feet possible. Winds could gust up to 40 in the lower
  elevations and in excess of 80 mph over ridges leading to
  whiteout conditions.

* WHERE...Greater Lake Tahoe Area.

* WHEN...For the Winter Weather Advisory, from 4 PM Sunday to 10
  AM PST Monday. For the Winter Storm Watch, from Tuesday
  afternoon through late Thursday night.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult to impossible. The
  hazardous conditions could impact the Monday morning commute.
  with very dangerous travel conditions possible Tuesday night
  through Thursday night. Strong winds could cause tree damage
  and whiteout conditions.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Be prepared for winter driving conditions over the next several
days. Do you have a backup travel plan? Do you have an an
emergency kit for your car and additional supplies for your home?
Once the storm arrives Tuesday afternoon, travel may be difficult
or impossible for an extended period of time.

The latest road conditions can be obtained by calling 5 1 1.
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We were +3F for Dec and currently +5.4F so it's gonna be tough but we might get there. Probly won't be in the top 5 as we are in 5th place for Jan right now. Might not be in the top 10.

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Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

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23 minutes ago, TheNewCulverJosh said:

Time to find some live webcam links to Redding, Shasta City, Tahoe, et al.

Somebody down there is getting hammered this coming week.

I'm guessing all of the above will be.

@Omegaraptor will actually be livestreaming from the 76 station in Yreka, Jim Cantore style, until about five minutes in when he realizes he hates snow and a heavy warm rain would be much preferred.

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SLE is not even in the top 5 right now. 😢

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Just now, Jesse said:

I'm guessing all of the above will be.

Omegaraptor will actually be livestreaming from 76 station in Yreka Jim Cantore style, until about five minutes in when he realizes he hates snow and wants some warmth and thunderstorms instead.

Don’t forget Sacramento.

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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21 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I was in DC and Pennsylvania for about 10 days in March 2018, it was pretty cold/snowy. 

Except it wasn’t lol. Farther up the coast did better but it was mediocre in the snowfall department here.

Most exciting event that month was the windstorm on the 2nd, which (I think) you missed? Now that was legit..70-80mph gusts for 10+ hours west of the fall line. Easily the strongest windstorm since Feb 2011.

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4 minutes ago, Phil said:

Except it wasn’t lol. Farther up the coast did better but it was mediocre in the snowfall department here.

Most exciting event that month was the windstorm on the 2nd, which (I think) you missed? Now that was legit..70-80mph gusts for 10+ hours west of the fall line. Easily the strongest windstorm since Feb 2011.

Yeah I think I got out there around the 6/7th. It was snowing when I was in DC, but didn’t amount to much. Philly had a lot on the ground when I got there.

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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1 hour ago, BLI snowman said:

In both the 1973-76 and 1998-01 multi-year Ninas, our coldest airmass came in that first winter.

I would say that does NOT bode well for 2021-22 and very likely for 2022-23 as well. This week could be the pinnacle of winter for quite a little while.

Depends where in the QBO/IPWP cycle the 1st Niña starts.

Multiyear niña 2007-09 had most of the cold in the 2nd year. 

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1 hour ago, hawkstwelve said:

Compact SUV. Leaning towards either a Mazda CX-5, Subaru Forester, or Honda CR-V. The CX-5 has a significant lead at the moment based off of reviews and online pics/videos. Love the look of it and it supposedly handles really well. I'm excited to test drive it. CR-V is more 'blah' in the looks category but I have to include it since it's Honda. 

Here’s a vote for CX-5!

No on the other two cause I hate CVT’s.

Home Weather Station Stats for 2023

High - Satans Bunghole

Lowest High - Not sure

Low - I don't have the data

Sub 40 highs - Not quite

Sub-freezing highs - Try again

Lows below 25 - You're joking

Lows below 20 - No

2023 Snowfall - LOL

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1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Yeah I think I got out there around the 6/7th. It was snowing when I was in DC, but didn’t amount to much. Philly had a lot on the ground when I got there.

Philly/NYC did well. I remember Fred’s barrage of snow pics while staring at bare ground almost every day. 😂

We had one decent ~ 6” snowfall after the spring equinox, but it got eviscerated by insolation within a few days. I remember it still being light outside at 7pm and it was snowing and it just didn’t feel right.

 

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One consistency is that all model runs that develop significant cold in the vicinity of the PNW feature a stable block over the Beaufort Sea region. And it develops early. The runs with more neutral heights in that region have been mediocre.

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14 minutes ago, Phil said:

One consistency is that all model runs that develop significant cold in the vicinity of the PNW feature a stable block over the Beaufort Sea region. And it develops early. The runs with more neutral heights in that region have been mediocre.

Beaufort Sea blocking has been a pretty consistent entity the last few winters.  Most attempts at any favorable mid latitude blocking have resulted in a quick flight to that region.

My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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5 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Beaufort Sea blocking has been a pretty consistent entity the last few winters.  Most attempts at any favorable mid latitude blocking has resulted in a quick flight to that region.

Last winter certainly wasn’t. There was a black hole over that region for months on end. In fact, that coupled PV system there torpedoed what could have been a mammoth arctic blast in January 2020. 

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Just now, Phil said:

Last winter certainly wasn’t. There was a black hole over that region for months on end. In fact, that coupled PV system there torpedoed what could have been a mammoth arctic blast in January 2020. 

Feels like a theme for the PNW.

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Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

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1 minute ago, Phil said:

Last winter certainly wasn’t. There was a black hole over that region for months on end. In fact, that coupled PV system there torpedoed what could have been a mammoth arctic blast in January 2020. 

Last January was a fairly classic undercut, just without the typical strong mid latitude blocking which precedes it.  Turned out to be rather tepid and transient.  You’re right though, it was close!

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My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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Currently 38 degrees. 

I don’t know much about Mazda’s other than my sister attempted to drive her 1985 RX-7 in December of 1990 and couldn’t get it out of the driveway. As her little brother I did a lot of laughing at her. Anyway my uncle is a mechanic and he says the newer Mazda’s can be quite labor intensive to work on and he sees a lot of them. Good Old Scotty agrees...He also hates newer GM products and would have called me an idiot for buying one. 

 

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Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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10 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Last January was a fairly classic undercut, just without the typical strong mid latitude blocking which precedes it.  Turned out to be rather tepid and transient.  You’re right though, it was close!

I agree with your general assessment. There wasn’t a block over the Beaufort, though.

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Just thought I would check in with my latest opinions on things.  First of all the reason I haven't posted much is because I'm in a relatively rare mode of being somewhat pleased with the latest pattern change, but is tinged by disappointment over the details being so lousy for snow in the Central Puget Sound region.  When I have mixed feelings like that I get pretty unmotivated to post.

That having been said it's hard to not be pleased by ensemble means that show nothing but below normal temps for the entire 15 day period.  There have also been a couple of GFS runs that get pretty good in early Feb.  Probably the most interesting thing right now is how rapidly the Western Pacific MJO wave developed compared to what the models had projected.  It is probable the wave will achieve higher than expected amplitude as well which should bode well for us.  The long range ECMWF MJO model shows an MJO wave remaining in octant 7 for a long period of time which is about as good as gets for us from an MJO perspective.  It would be pretty unreal to have a cold February after 2011, 2014, 2017, 2018, and 2019, but it could well be in the cards.

Speaking of colder weather....since the official mid point of meteorological winter (January 15) the average temp IMBY has been 38.7 with an average low of 32.1.  A huge improvement from the first half of winter.  My low this morning was 25, and the ECMWF advertises another similar low on Tuesday.  Certainly not a terrible situation we are in, but it still needs work obviously.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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9 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Currently 38 degrees. 

I don’t know much about Mazda’s other than my sister attempted to drive her 1985 RX-7 in December of 1990 and couldn’t get it out of the driveway. As her little brother I did a lot of laughing at her. Anyway my uncle is a mechanic and he says the newer Mazda’s can be quite labor intensive to work on and he sees a lot of them. Good Old Scotty agrees...He also hates newer GM products and would have called me an idiot for buying one. 

 

I hear so much good stuff about Mazda these days. Everyone on Reddit just sings their praises, but then US News/JD power give them terrible predicted reliability. At the same time, consumer reports has them way up at the top.

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Home Weather Station Stats for 2023

High - Satans Bunghole

Lowest High - Not sure

Low - I don't have the data

Sub 40 highs - Not quite

Sub-freezing highs - Try again

Lows below 25 - You're joking

Lows below 20 - No

2023 Snowfall - LOL

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I am going to predict that we all fall in love with a bomb cyclone into Coos Bay that produces widespread 12-18" totals from Vancouver to Eugene, on February 14th.  

Jesse will buy it a card.

Andrew will buy it chocolates.

TWL will buy it flowers.

Tim will probably buy it some lingerie.

Jim will buy it a new sports car.

And I will buy it an engagement ring.

 

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