January 2021 weather observations for the PNW

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

Here is the 12Z GFS for Wednesday morning... EPSL is basically dry with offshore flow but its a different story over there with upslope against the Olympics.

I am just left of the 1.1 right at the edge of the blue. 

[MossMan]

Going to be the best February since 2019! 

[MossMan]

2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Here is the 12Z GFS for Wednesday morning... EPSL is basically dry with offshore flow but its a different story over there with upslope against the Olympics.

I’m in a sliver of white.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Just now, MossMan said:

Going to be the best February since 2019! 

Even 1/2 as good would be great. 

[Perturbed Member]

WRF essentially gives PDX a snow sounding for tomorrow. Pretty close.

 

However the snow totals don't look impressive mostly because the precip looks more anemic for some reason. FWIW The soundings suggest we will have trouble getting sustained precip to wet bulb all the way down and saturate the air. 

 

 

[TT-SEA]

3 minutes ago, MossMan said:

I’m in a sliver of white.

That is going to suck... particularly when everywhere around you is buried in 0.1 inches of snow!

[chinook]

going to be a few HAPPY people and some that are SAD come tomorrow morning.  

 

 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

18 minutes ago, chinook said:

going to be a few HAPPY people and some that are SAD come tomorrow morning.  

 

 

This looks like a classic west-valley special. I remember those from living in SW Yamhill County. Going to be a fun night for you. Hope you have a beer all set-up.

[Jesse]

22 minutes ago, chinook said:

going to be a few HAPPY people and some that are SAD come tomorrow morning.  

 

 

The next snow chance is tomorrow night.

[FroYoBro]

Getting some more 36 degree rain right now. Will be dominating the cold rain stats this week! 

[Perturbed Member]

Last 3 Euro runs

 

 

[Perturbed Member]

Not too bad

[TT-SEA]

7 minutes ago, FroYoBro said:

Getting some more 36 degree rain right now. Will be dominating the cold rain stats this week! 

Getting some 39-degree sun breaks here...

[Timmy Supercell]

28 degree bloo sky here 

[Jesse]

Nice looking Euro run for tomorrow night.

Would be ideal if we could get some clearing and drop down around freezing tonight, then some cloud cover and increasing east winds tomorrow. Timing of that sort of stuff matters for these marginal setups.

[TT-SEA]

Snow tomorrow night per the 00Z ECMWF...

 

[jakerepp]

Pretty nice snowstorm in the 'Midwest' right now. 

[Perturbed Member]

Just now, Jesse said:

Nice looking Euro run for tomorrow night.

Would be idea if we could get some clearing and drop down around freezing tonight, then some cloud cover and increasing east winds tomorrow. Timing of that sort of stuff matters for these marginal setups.

Yeah the snow maps look good but the temps tomorrow still make it clear this will be real marginal. Euro shows plenty of 34-35F snow.

Models do seem to agree that we drop to around freezing tonight though.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

1 minute ago, Jesse said:

Nice looking Euro run for tomorrow night.

Would be ideal if we could get some clearing and drop down around freezing tonight, then some cloud cover and increasing east winds tomorrow. Timing of that sort of stuff matters for these marginal setups.

It's incredible and ridiculous how many things need to work out just to get snow west of the cascades. 

[SouthHillFrosty]

49 minutes ago, Fircrest said:

In Tacoma as well.  Went into a skid twice on my drive to work this morning!

Same here. Ended up in the oncoming traffic lane. 

 

[Jesse]

2 minutes ago, jakerepp said:

Pretty nice snowstorm in the 'Midwest' right now. 

So it is actually in the Midwest or did you put it in quotes because it's a place that has been inaccurately referred to as the Midwest?

[Cloud]

6 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Snow tomorrow night per the 00Z ECMWF...

 

I’ve really enjoyed being in the white circle it’s been showing. Way to go Seattle! 

[Timmy Supercell]

1 minute ago, Cloud said:

I’ve really enjoyed being in the white circle it’s been showing. Way to go Seattle! 

CHAZ except this time to keep out snow. 

[jakerepp]

2 minutes ago, Jesse said:

So it is actually in the Midwest or did you put it in quotes because it's a place that has been inaccurately referred to as the Midwest?

Omaha. 

So that depends on how you define the 'Midwest', doesn't it?

I get irrationally annoyed by how this country defines 'Midwest', although I assume it's a throwback to when nobody really lived on the West coast, so Illinois and Wisconsin were the 'Midwest' of the populous. 

[GHweatherChris]

A heavy band of precip is about to move over here, might see something interesting, it's 34 degrees.

[MossMan]

11 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

Same here. Ended up in the oncoming traffic lane. 

 

Nothing but 35 degree wet roads up here. No sliding for me.

[Phil]

So what makes this second PV distribution/SSW and jet extension different from last one is we’ll have more E-IPWP centric MJO propagation with less IO convection. That in conjunction with seasonality really increases the odds for cold pool building on our side of the pole. This time Putin won’t get to steal it all.

[TacomaWaWx]

Got down to 35 this morning. 40 with mostly sunny skies here. Picked up 0.02” overnight...may have had some wet snow as it was cold enough but not sure. Up to 8.77” on the month. 

[Jesse]

9 minutes ago, jakerepp said:

Omaha. 

So that depends on how you define the 'Midwest', doesn't it?

I get irrationally annoyed by how this country defines 'Midwest', although I assume it's a throwback to when nobody really lived on the West coast, so Illinois and Wisconsin were the 'Midwest' of the populous. 

Yeah it can change a lot depending on where the population center is. Present day Ohio, Michigan, Indiana, Illinois and Wisconsin were known as the Northwest Territory during the late 1700s, when that region was first being settled. It was north and west of the original 13 colonies.

I think these days most people would agree Omaha is part of the midwest though. I suppose some people might say the plains.

[Omegaraptor]

NWS Sacramento now forecasting 3-6 inches and locally up to a foot for the northern Sac valley.

Literally easier to get snow in Redding than here. What a joke.

[Cloud]

5 minutes ago, Phil said:

So what makes this second PV distribution/SSW and jet extension different from last one is we’ll have more E-IPWP centric MJO propagation with less IO convection. That in conjunction with seasonality really increases the odds for cold pool building on our side of the pole. This time Putin won’t get to steal it all.

Is this a question or a statement?  

[TacomaWaWx]

1 hour ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

I went for a walk behind my house yesterday and i could look up the ridge of gold mountain at about 800-1000 feet elevation and it was just flocked with snow. 2-300 feet above me it was winter!! 

Yeah I’m going to have to get up to green mountain and hike it Wednesday. Hopefully it’s snowy up there at 1600’. 

[TT-SEA]

12Z ECMWF takes away some of the snow that was shown with that heavy band of precip that moves through on Saturday night into Sunday morning.   Still looks pretty good for Andrew though.  

New 12Z run on top and the 12Z run from yesterday on the bottom for comparison.

 

[Jesse]

3 minutes ago, Omegaraptor said:

 

NWS Sacramento now forecasting 3-6 inches and locally up to a foot for the northern Sac valley.

Literally easier to get snow in Redding than here. What a joke.

 

Yes because one storm interpreted through the eyes of someone who has only been following the weather here for two years makes this a fact.

[seattleweatherguy]

9 minutes ago, Phil said:

So what makes this second PV distribution/SSW and jet extension different from last one is we’ll have more E-IPWP centric MJO propagation with less IO convection. That in conjunction with seasonality really increases the odds for cold pool building on our side of the pole. This time Putin won’t get to steal it all.

Chances it hits here?

[TT-SEA]

12Z ECMWF shows some more snow down south for Sunday afternoon... likely due to heavier precip rates down there.

 

 

[Cloud]

13 minutes ago, Timmy_Supercell said:

CHAZ except this time to keep out snow. 

Well, I guess the good news from a personal perspective is that I hope we don’t have to stay here much longer. Almost 30 years is long enough, been looking for an area more favorable. But just to get out of Seattle in general. 

[RentonHill]

1 hour ago, MossMan said:

I’m in a sliver of white.

[Perturbed Member]

NWS making some Dec 29 2009 references for tomorrow as the worst case outcome.

Models continue to trend a little slower with this system, which is
not ideal for snow down to the valley floors. Precipitation now looks
to spread inland Tuesday afternoon. However, easterly flow should
keep snow levels near river level in the Columbia Gorge and Hood
River Valley. The big question is how much the Willamette Valley will
be able to warm up before precipitation starts, and whether
evaporative cooling will be sufficient to bring snow levels down
below 500-1000 feet. If temperatures remain in the mid to upper 30s
tonight/Tue morning, this appears to be a rain event for most areas
below 1000 feet, similar to Sunday. However, if temperatures can dip
to, or even below, freezing in the lowlands tonight/Tue morning, and
if inversions hold long enough to keep temperatures cool, we could be
looking at a situation similar to the rain-to-snow 29 Dec 2009 event
which brought snow to the Willamette Valley during the afternoon just
in time to cripple the evening commute. This can be considered the
worst-case scenario forecast, and only has about a 10 percent chance
of occurring per the National Blend of Models. More likely is that
sticking snow will be limited to hills above 500 to 1000 feet, and
that Tuesday will be mostly a rain event for the coast and I-5
corridor. Easterly upslope flow will favor lower snow levels along
the eastern slopes of the Coast Range, so areas like Forest Grove,
Banks, Sheridan and perhaps Dallas could easily see an inch or two of
snow despite being below 500 ft in elevation.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

5 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

Yeah I’m going to have to get up to green mountain and hike it Wednesday. Hopefully it’s snowy up there at 1600’. 

There is about 3 inches on top. Do you start at the gold creek staging area?