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January 2021 weather observations for the PNW


MossMan

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1 minute ago, wxmet said:

And as expected, the self-victimization and somehow turning this into a political argument. Not everything is political. Those of us who have been on here long enough know your "Fair and Balanced" routine 😉

Yeah... sure.    Its all part of an evil plan!   So stupid... stop being so paranoid.   😃

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Talk about a holy sheit 18z GFS run.  If that verifies there will be a lot of happy people on this forum.  The parallel was also pretty solid for week 2.  The EPS has me mystified.  It seems to be ignoring a highly favorable MJO wave  during the period the GFS suite of models is showing things getting good.  My guess is we will see the EPS improve considerably tonight after the dramatic improvement in the 18z GFS ensemble.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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Just now, wxmet said:

And now the gaslighting part 😃

Gaslighting?

Yep... you did that.   I posted a map in response to a question and you took offense.   Want me to re-post all of the "good maps" that I have posted just in the last 24 hours?  Some are good... some are bad.   That's life.     

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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3 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Talk about a holy sheit 18z GFS run.  If that verifies there will be a lot of happy people on this forum.  The parallel was also pretty solid for week 2.  The EPS has me mystified.  It seems to be ignoring a highly favorable MJO wave  during the period the GFS suite of models is showing things getting good.  My guess is we will see the EPS improve considerably tonight after the dramatic improvement in the 18z GFS ensemble.

The EPS never changes. Except when it does but once it does it is always rock solid until the next time it changes.

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We actually did  manage some showers mixed with ice pellets and snow today. Wasn't expecting that.  Going to be some very icy roads when this all freezes up.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

Talk about a holy sheit 18z GFS run.  If that verifies there will be a lot of happy people on this forum.  The parallel was also pretty solid for week 2.  The EPS has me mystified.  It seems to be ignoring a highly favorable MJO wave  during the period the GFS suite of models is showing things getting good.  My guess is we will see the EPS improve considerably tonight after the dramatic improvement in the 18z GFS ensemble.

Yeah... quite the model battle brewing between the GFS suite and ECMWF suite.   Recent history says not to assume the GFS suite is wrong.  

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Just now, TT-SEA said:

Gaslighting?

Yep... you did that.   I posted a map in response to a question and you took offense.   Want me to re-post all of the "good maps" that I have posted just in the last 24 hours?  Some are good... some are bad.   That's life.     

I didn't take offense you did which is why you're so unraveled at the moment. Please take a 5 min Headspace or Calm break. 

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1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

Talk about a holy sheit 18z GFS run.  If that verifies there will be a lot of happy people on this forum.  The parallel was also pretty solid for week 2.  The EPS has me mystified.  It seems to be ignoring a highly favorable MJO wave  during the period the GFS suite of models is showing things getting good.  My guess is we will see the EPS improve considerably tonight after the dramatic improvement in the 18z GFS ensemble.

The EPS map that was posted earlier in the day shows signs of retrogression at the end at around hour 360. The same time frame the GFS op run is picking up on this cold air.  So we're already seeing improvements. Just hope it continues. 

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Just now, TT-SEA said:

Yeah... quite the model battle brewing between the GFS suite and ECMWF suite.   Recent history says not to assume the GFS suite is wrong.  

The EPS also has stellar long-range accuracy when compared to the GEFS suite, so no solution can be discounted.

Regardless, the current stratospheric instability is inhibiting our long range forecasting quite a bit. We really have very little idea of how things will pan out beyond 8-10 days. Feels like the mid 2000's.

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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7 minutes ago, Jesse said:

Nah. I've definitely seen it snow more times in the last ten years than times you have been bullish about it, though. ;)

It’s always easiest to just not make a call, eh?

I like the chase.  Snow forecasting here is 80% of the time a losing battle. Last time we had any “easy” calls was February 2018. 

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My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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9 minutes ago, wxmet said:

I didn't take offense you did which is why you're so unraveled at the moment. Please take a 5 min Headspace or Calm break. 

So condescending.   You seem pretty intent on continuing this discussion for some reason... which was just silly from the start.  😄

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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8 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Talk about a holy sheit 18z GFS run.  If that verifies there will be a lot of happy people on this forum.  The parallel was also pretty solid for week 2.  The EPS has me mystified.  It seems to be ignoring a highly favorable MJO wave  during the period the GFS suite of models is showing things getting good.  My guess is we will see the EPS improve considerably tonight after the dramatic improvement in the 18z GFS ensemble.

I think the GFS and GEFS are right in the overall pattern but are getting the details wrong. I doubt it gets as cold as its showing.

I agree that the EPS is probably not latching onto the MJO wave. Phase 7 MJO is a very good sign and it looks like the GFS and GEFS are responding to it. Other models will likely join soon.

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5 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Yeah... quite the model battle brewing between the GFS suite and ECMWF suite.   Recent history says not to assume the GFS suite is wrong.  

The GFS while being volatile and waffling quite a bit, it tends to actually do fairly well in the long term.

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1 minute ago, Jesse said:

The EPS never changes. Except when it does but once it does it is rock solid until the next time it changes.

I'll be really surprised if it doesn't change tonight.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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1 minute ago, Cloud said:

The GFS while being volatile and waffling quite a bit, it tends to actually does fairly well in the long term.

I don't have any specific reason based on the models or the tropics... but I just feel like Justin's call for mid-February will be on target.    

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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4 minutes ago, Kolk1604 said:

GEFS also trending colder

download (73).png

download (72).png

download (71).png

download (70).png

You could really see it on the 500mb mean and the 850mb temp mean.  There were 10 or so members that dropped 850s to -9 or lower.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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2 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

It’s always easiest to just not make a call, eh?

I like the chase.  Snow forecasting here is 80% of the time a losing battle. Last time we had any “easy” calls was February 2018. 

There will be at least 58 flakes of snow visible from my house tomorrow evening. Happy?

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6 minutes ago, Cloud said:

The EPS map that was posted earlier in the day shows signs of retrogression at the end at around hour 360. The same time frame the GFS op run is picking up on this cold air.  So we're already seeing improvements. Just hope it continues. 

And the EPS yesterday showed retrogression as well... its toying with the idea already.  

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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3 minutes ago, AbbyJr said:

I think the GFS and GEFS are right in the overall pattern but are getting the details wrong. I doubt it gets as cold as its showing.

I agree that the EPS is probably not latching onto the MJO wave. Phase 7 MJO is a very good sign and looks like the GFS and GEFS are responding to it. Other models will likely join soon.

The funny thing is the ECMWF is also predicting the wave to maintain good amplitude and duration.  That makes the flat / boring EPS mean all the more puzzling.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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I was browsing the rest of the 18Z ECMWF and noticed that it shows a decent amount of snow up in Whatcom County and Vancouver BC area on Wednesday and Thursday...

ecmwf-deterministic-washington-snow_48hr-1921600.png

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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9 minutes ago, AbbyJr said:

I think the GFS and GEFS are right in the overall pattern but are getting the details wrong. I doubt it gets as cold as its showing.

I agree that the EPS is probably not latching onto the MJO wave. Phase 7 MJO is a very good sign and it looks like the GFS and GEFS are responding to it. Other models will likely join soon.

Lucky number 7!!

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4 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

The funny thing is the ECMWF is also predicting the wave to maintain good amplitude and duration.  That makes the flat / boring EPS mean all the more puzzling.

I thought the 12Z EPS matched up well with the 12Z ECMF at 240 hours.  

EPS on top and ECMWF on the bottom... 

 

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-namer-z500_anom-2440000 (1).png

ecmwf-deterministic-namer-z500_anom-2440000.png

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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It would sure be something if we do pick up another wintry February.  That would make 6 solid Febs in an 11 year period....2011, 2014, 2017, 2018, 2019, and 2021 (if it happens).  All of the others had either significant snow, significant cold, or both.

Amazingly we went from 1963 through 1984 (a period that had some really solid winters) without a single decent February just to emphasize how odd this is.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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10 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

I was browsing the rest of the 18Z ECMWF and noticed that it shows a decent amount of snow up in Whatcom County and Vancouver BC area on Wednesday and Thursday...

ecmwf-deterministic-washington-snow_48hr-1921600.png

At least the system is there. 18z GFS put that snow from Olympia through Bellingham but other models are still dry. 

Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation)

Snow since February 2019: 91"

2023-24: 6"

2022-23: 17.5"

2021-22: 17.75"

2020-21: 14.5”

2019-20: 10.5"

2018-19: 24.75"

 

 

 

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1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

It would sure be something if we do pick up another wintry February.  That would make 6 solid Febs in an 11 year period....2011, 2014, 2017, 2018, 2019, and 2021 (if it happens).  All of the others had either significant cold, significant cold, or both.

Amazingly we went from 1963 through 1984 (a period that had some really solid winters) without a single decent February just to emphasize how odd this is.

We’ve also had snow in February in 2006, 2009 and 2020 as well. 

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Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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Looks like the next round of snow in Truckee Tahoe have started. Seems to be quite windy as well as the flakes are flying sideways. They did a really good job clearing the snow off of the runway that fell last night. 

More interested in this next round of snow coming from them since there is a W.W.A. right now and a W.S. Warning tomorrow night.  

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2 minutes ago, bainbridgekid said:

Good sign. 18z GFS put that snow from Olympia through Bellingham but other models are still dry. 

I'll be happy with anything that falls in this area this week.  Low pressure off the south WA or north OR coast is usually terrible here for snow.  The east wind just wipes out the moisture.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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3 minutes ago, Cloud said:

Looks like the next round of snow in Truckee Tahoe have started. Seems to be quite windy as well as the flakes are flying sideways. They did a really good job clearing the snow off of the runway that fell last night. 

More interested in this next round of snow coming from them since there is a W.W.A. right now and a W.S. Warning tomorrow night.  

I have been randomly checking that web cam all day! 

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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