January 2021 weather observations for the PNW

[BLI snowman]

10 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

It would sure be something if we do pick up another wintry February.  That would make 6 solid Febs in an 11 year period....2011, 2014, 2017, 2018, 2019, and 2021 (if it happens).  All of the others had either significant snow, significant cold, or both.

Amazingly we went from 1963 through 1984 (a period that had some really solid winters) without a single decent February just to emphasize how odd this is.

February 1971 had a nice regional snow event at the end and there were some other little events in there like 1980 and 1982. And BC did really well in 1975. But yeah that period was very December/January centric.

[Cloud]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

I have been randomly checking that web cam all day! 

Yeah, the last time I checked was them having a plow clearing  up the runway with a lot of snow still. Just checked again and even though it's dark, you could tell it's completely clear of snow. 

[TT-SEA]

Just now, Cloud said:

Yeah, the last time I checked was them having a plow clearing  up the runway with a lot of snow still. Just checked again and even though it's dark, you could tell it's completely clear of snow. 

Just noticed that... right down to the pavement.   I also see snow starting to fall under the lights.

[Deweydog]

5 minutes ago, Jesse said:

I still say I see 58+

Toasty.

[bainbridgekid]

00z NAM has a bit more more moisture tomorrow night around the Sound. Spits out 0.8" of snow for Seattle and 2-4" for Kitsap/Hood Canal.

 

 

 

[Jesse]

Just now, Deweydog said:

Toasty.

How the ice burn will feel when my gutsy flake count forecast pans out.

[AbbyJr]

19 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

It would sure be something if we do pick up another wintry February.  That would make 6 solid Febs in an 11 year period....2011, 2014, 2017, 2018, 2019, and 2021 (if it happens).  All of the others had either significant snow, significant cold, or both.

Amazingly we went from 1963 through 1984 (a period that had some really solid winters) without a single decent February just to emphasize how odd this is.

February is our new January it would seem.

Last February almost worked out too but that stubborn vortex ruined it. 

Thankfully that shouldn't be a problem this time around because of the SSW event.

[Deweydog]

1 minute ago, Jesse said:

How the ice burn will feel when my gutsy flake count forecast pans out.

I would have went with 69+ but you’ve  always been a bit of a prude.

[MWG]

Reminds me of the February 2019 event that started around 12pm without the winds though.

[Jesse]

1 minute ago, Deweydog said:

I would have went with 69+ but you’ve  always been a bit of a prude.

You must see me getting warm tongued?

LoLoLoLoLoLoL

[Perturbed Member]

1 hour ago, TT-SEA said:

Correct...

 

Do you find these euro maps a bit exaggerated? A lot of that precip around PDX falls with temps above freezing. 

[BLI snowman]

NAM sticking to its guns! Keep in mind the 06z and 12z NAM runs were poo today so it has actually trended a smidge better again the last two runs. Sucks to be in Oregon City though.

[umadbro]

[TT-SEA]

8 minutes ago, nwsnow said:

Do you find these euro maps a bit exaggerated? A lot of that precip around PDX falls with temps above freezing. 

I am not sure... sometimes it seems to overstate snow totals in very marginal situations and assumes accumulating snow with temps in the mid to upper 30s.    But it does not make this error as often when there is offshore flow and dewpoints are at or below freezing so I would feel better about what it shows tomorrow down there. 

[bainbridgekid]

9 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

NAM sticking to its guns! Keep in mind the 06z and 12z NAM runs were poo today so it has actually trended a smidge better again the last two runs. Sucks to be in Oregon City though.

Comparing the last 4 runs, the NAM definitely trended snowier overall for both WA and Oregon.

 

[Jesse]

I’m just glad that we finally have some interesting stuff to talk about that’s in NAM range.

#bestsignyetthiswinterisfinallyturningitaround

[Cloud]

NAM wants to give the Sound couple hours of snow Wed. morning. 

[bainbridgekid]

NAM is totally dry for Western WA Thursday morning though unfortunately.

[Bryant]

Alright Whatcom County members, we need to start bitching about the models to get some future snowy runs. Seems to work for the PDX members 

 

JK

[RentonHill]

I also like this webcam

https://tahoetopia.com/webcam/sunnyside-resort

[TT-SEA]

4 minutes ago, Bryant said:

Alright Whatcom County members, we need to start bitching about the models to get some future snowy runs. Seems to work for the PDX members 

 

JK

Works wonders for Randy too! 

[Blizzard777]

3 hours ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

Chunky rain in Auburn 

That was from this! I put some makeup on it but is was quite an impressive cell in the middle of lots O blue sky! It was bubbling good  

[Perturbed Member]

46 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

NAM sticking to its guns! Keep in mind the 06z and 12z NAM runs were poo today so it has actually trended a smidge better again the last two runs. Sucks to be in Oregon City though.

Last 3 of the 3km NAM appears to be going in the wrong direction though. 

 

 

 

[Deweydog]

Kind of interesting, the NAM shows less of a damming signature overall.  Wants to keep a more SE’erly component with low level gradients. 

[Blizzard777]

1 hour ago, Cloud said:

Still showing Seattle in the white hole. TOSS. IT. OUT. 

Second the motion 

[Perturbed Member]

8 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Kind of interesting, the NAM shows less of a damming signature overall.  Wants to keep a more SE’erly component with low level gradients. 

How damning is this development to our event tomorrow?

[Jesse]

20 minutes ago, Bryant said:

Alright Whatcom County members, we need to start bitching about the models to get some future snowy runs. Seems to work for the PDX members 

 

JK

I’ll trade you all the snowy runs in the world for an actual run of snowy weather.

[Blizzard777]

44/33 currently 35*

Dp 29*

Had one small shower of ice pellets earlier in day. Otherwise a sunny day with the one cool cell forming just to the east of me.  
 

[TheNewCulverJosh]

It definitely looks very similar to Jan 10, 2017, just one problem.  Gorge temps are about 10-15 degrees warmer.  No way anyone outside of westside 500'+ sees much of anything IMO.  Sunset summit may be the best place to be this time.

[BLI snowman]

5 minutes ago, nwsnow said:

Last 3 of the 3km NAM appears to be going in the wrong direction though. 

 

 

 

 

Yeah, coming back to reality there. Accumulations look very unlikely aside from the westside. But... will be nice to see snow in the air again, in the daytime no less!

[Deweydog]

Just now, nwsnow said:

How damning is this development to our event tomorrow?

Wouldn’t think it matters much overall but it would reduce the east slope enhancement potential.  GFS and Euro both seem more in tune with some upslope help though.

[Cjmessling]

18 minutes ago, Jginmartini said:

That was from this! I put some makeup on it but is was quite an impressive cell in the middle of lots O blue sky! It was bubbling good  

Awesome picture. It completely snuck up on me this afternoon. This picture was from 430ish in Seatac

 

[Perturbed Member]

1 minute ago, BLI snowman said:

 

Yeah, coming back to reality there. Accumulations look very unlikely aside from the westside. But... will be nice to see snow in the air again, in the daytime no less!

Yeah at least snow in the air for most is probably a decent bet. I'm between Banks and HIO so will be interesting to see if I can manage a dusting or something since I'm on the west end. 

[TheNewCulverJosh]

1 minute ago, nwsnow said:

Yeah at least snow in the air for most is probably a decent bet. I'm between Banks and HIO so will be interesting to see if I can manage a dusting or something since I'm on the west end. 

As long as you get plenty of cold air density it will all be good :).

[Perturbed Member]

Just now, TheNewCulverJosh said:

As long as you get plenty of cold air density it will all be good :).

Right, will keep my eyes on the coast range density sensors tomorrow afternoon. 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

34F DP 30F with some sprinkles.

[Deweydog]

12 minutes ago, TheNewCulverJosh said:

It definitely looks very similar to Jan 10, 2017, just one problem.  Gorge temps are about 10-15 degrees warmer.  No way anyone outside of westside 500'+ sees much of anything IMO.  Sunset summit may be the best place to be this time.

What are the similarities???

[Jesse]

3 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

34F DP 30F with some sprinkles.

So warm

[TheNewCulverJosh]

4 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

What are the similarities???

It's January.

[Blizzard777]

12 minutes ago, Cjmessling said:

Awesome picture. It completely snuck up on me this afternoon. This picture was from 430ish in Seatac

 

So Cool!!  Glad you shared!