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January 2021 weather observations for the PNW


MossMan

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1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

The EPS control has vodka cold pouring into WA at the end of the run.

Mind posting?

Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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Just now, TT-SEA said:

No... GOA heights are higher than previous runs.

I posted that when you had just posted day 10...Then I saw the actual full run that was posted. 

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Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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4 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

The EPS control has vodka cold pouring into WA at the end of the run.

The mean matters more

Latest.png

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Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

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GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope

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1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

Control run at day 15...

ecmwf-ensemble-c00-namer-t850_anom_stream-2915200.png

Pretty.

Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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2 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

Mind posting?

Brrrrr...

 

cold.png

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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Here's the control. At least we're able to keep it below 40F. Gold Beach coming in with a pleasant 41F. Seasonably chilly.

Latest.png

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Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

Venmo

GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope

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Just now, TigerWoodsLibido said:

The mean matters more

Latest.png

I know, but the mean was way better also.  The GFS is leading the way on this.  It does happen sometimes.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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2 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

Hopefully things keep improving...this was a nice step in the right direction.

This has a legit shot at being something special.  Let's hope it doesn't flop somehow.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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Just now, SouthHillFrosty said:

I'll eat dirt if Washington gets an artic outbreak with 12+ inches in Feb

I don't think you'll be physically able to do that with the four feet of snowcover...

  • scream 1

Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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4 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:

The control run is such a joke. Even more laughable than the 18z/Drunk Uncle... Why does the ECMWF even have that product.

It's literally just a way lower resolution run of the Euro. Doesn't recognize the effect the Cascades and to a lesser extent Rockies have on cold air. It's basically a waste of space.

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Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation)

Snow since February 2019: 91"

2023-24: 6"

2022-23: 17.5"

2021-22: 17.75"

2020-21: 14.5”

2019-20: 10.5"

2018-19: 24.75"

 

 

 

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The top 3 analogs on the 0z GFS are from late Feb 1955, mid Feb 1956, and late Jan 1957.  Good company to be in!

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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4 minutes ago, bainbridgekid said:

It's literally just a way lower resolution run of the Euro. Doesn't recognize the effect the Cascades and to a lesser extent Rockies have on cold air. It's basically a waste of space.

The 500mb pattern isn't ruled too much by terrain. That is especially true with a block over the ocean.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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9 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

The 500mb pattern isn't ruled too much by terrain. That is especially true with a block over the ocean.

That’s probably true to an extent, but it’s notorious for opening the spigot with pretty reckless abandon. Anymore it acts like the GFS of old at that range.

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My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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Just now, Deweydog said:

That’s probably true to an extent, but it’s notorious for opening the spigot with pretty reckless abandon.  Anymore it acts like the GFS of old at that range.

I was thinking the same thing. Reminds me of the long range GFS from 15 years ago. Probably run at a similar resolution too.

Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation)

Snow since February 2019: 91"

2023-24: 6"

2022-23: 17.5"

2021-22: 17.75"

2020-21: 14.5”

2019-20: 10.5"

2018-19: 24.75"

 

 

 

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34 minutes ago, bainbridgekid said:

It's literally just a way lower resolution run of the Euro. Doesn't recognize the effect the Cascades and to a lesser extent Rockies have on cold air. It's basically a waste of space.

Isn't the purpose of the control run is to provide a mean for the other 50 members when they are being perturbed? It may be run at a lower resolution but it does play a significance role. So if we value ensemble means then the control run isn't a waste of space at all imo. 

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7 minutes ago, Cloud said:

Isn't the purpose of the control run is to provide a mean for the other 50 members when they are being perturbed? It may be run at a lower resolution but it does play a significance role. So if we value ensemble means then the control run isn't a waste of space at all imo. 

It's the unperturbed ensemble yes, but is still one amongst 50 which makes it much less valuable than either the mean or operational because of its low resolution.

If the Operational is like taking a photo with an iPhone camera and the Ensembles are like taking a grainy video, then the Control is like a still frame from the video. The video gives you the best picture of what's going on even though it's low resolution and the iPhone photo gives you lots of detail, but the grainy still frame isn't worth much at all.

 

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Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation)

Snow since February 2019: 91"

2023-24: 6"

2022-23: 17.5"

2021-22: 17.75"

2020-21: 14.5”

2019-20: 10.5"

2018-19: 24.75"

 

 

 

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6z NAM has much flatter gradients Tuesday night which is why it has way less downsloping and more snow East of Puget Sound.

 

namconus_ref_frzn_nwus_31.png

  • Snow 1

Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation)

Snow since February 2019: 91"

2023-24: 6"

2022-23: 17.5"

2021-22: 17.75"

2020-21: 14.5”

2019-20: 10.5"

2018-19: 24.75"

 

 

 

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56 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:

The control run is such a joke. Even more laughable than the 18z/Drunk Uncle... Why does the ECMWF even have that product.

Same with the NAM. Is it ever right? Even an hour out it never wins.

Seriously though how many SSWs are we up to? And how many times has the polar vortex split? Unlikely, but maybe the control and the GFS is onto something

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195572.png?1673757432

 

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6 minutes ago, bainbridgekid said:

It's the unperturbed ensemble yes, but is still one amongst 50 which makes it much less valuable than either the mean or operational because of its low resolution.

If the Operational is like taking a photo with an iPhone camera and the Ensembles are like taking a grainy video on a 2000 Nokia phone, then the Control is like a still frame from the video. The video gives you the best picture of what's going on even though it's low resolution and the iPhone photo gives you lots of detail, but the grainy still frame isn't worth much at all.

 

I was just looking at the Euro control run and I guess it does explain why it's being used. The low-res model does provide "most accurate estimate of the current conditions" -- Does this mean the Op is not the most accurate, even though it's the control at higher res?

https://www.ecmwf.int/en/forecasts/documentation-and-support/medium-range-forecasts

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Crush our dreams, 06z! 😊🙌

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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Speaking of things improving, looks like I'll be moving to Gold Bar in the very near future. Bid on the house earlier today and got it. At work running on 20 minutes of sleep the last 40 hours, but pretty happy. Location is perfect for getting more snow than Puget Sound, and on lame winters I can just go up a bit in elevation to enjoy it.

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2 minutes ago, smerfylicious said:

Speaking of things improving, looks like I'll be moving to Gold Bar in the very near future. Bid on the house earlier today and got it. At work running on 20 minutes of sleep the last 40 hours, but pretty happy. Location is perfect for getting more snow than Puget Sound, and on lame winters I can just go up a bit in elevation to enjoy it.

Congrats!

  • Like 1

Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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sn10_acc.us_nw.thumb.png.0eb3f2d26a11b27e0f2be64534d47e6b.png

Snowfall tomorrow night.

  • Snow 1

Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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Just now, The Blob said:

37 here, whats everyone up to other than watching the models?

Finishing an essay. Kind of multitasking.

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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LR dumps a massive amount of cold air into the continent, though not quite into the lowlands. Very close, though. Overall, the potential remains great.

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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trend-gefs-2021012606-f288.500h_anom_npac.gif.68badaeeb89e3aaff22e3392ea6a3bc3.gif

GEFS continues the look of an amplified NE Pac ridge with lowered heights over the western US. Maybe a weaker signal over that latter part, but at this point it's just run-to-run noise and there is no indication that it's lost the pattern. Continued theme of an increased chance for a cold snap in the 8-16 day range.

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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