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January 2021 weather observations for the PNW


MossMan

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29 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

Kinda similar in terms of where the totals added up. Much different at 500mb though with a sharper low level cold push, as a large arctic airmass was barreling into the eastside of the region that day and that snow was the peripheral extent of it. The Portland area had a modest transition event the next day into the 13th, the "highlight" of said winter.

On a serious note, can I ask how you remember all these past events in detail?

Do you keep a log on all these events?

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30 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

Kinda similar in terms of where the totals added up. Much different at 500mb though with a sharper low level cold push, as a large arctic airmass was barreling into the eastside of the region that day and that snow was the peripheral extent of it. The Portland area had a modest transition event the next day into the 13th, the "highlight" of said winter.

Thanks. A lot of times, I remember the observed weather for certain days very vividly, but have no memory of the bigger upper level picture. 
 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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I think I like this new GFS better. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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If the new GFS were to verify that is literally a 19th century cold wave being depicted.  Absolutely epic cold for us and a sizeable part of the country.  One thing that's becoming abundantly clear is there are going to be some very powerful blocking features developing as we get into February. Some of the Omega blocks that have been shown on recent runs are insane.  It remains to be seen how the thing will set up though.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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6 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I think I like this new GFS better. 

Can't wait to see how it performs.  You would have to assume it's got to be better than the current GFS since it's an upgrade.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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10 minutes ago, jcmcgaffey said:

On a serious note, can I ask how you remember all these past events in detail?

Do you keep a log on all these events?

Some of us actually remember individual events off the top of our heads.  Talk about obsession!

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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Was nice to have a couple of hours of wet snow this evening even though it didn’t stick. Going to have to go out to kitsap tomorrow to get my snow fix in. Still have lots of hope for February...interested to see if the ensembles all look good tonight. 

Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

Can't wait to see how it performs.  You would have to assume it's got to be better than the current GFS since it's an upgrade.

Anecdotally it seems much more prone to wild unrealistic solutions. I wish it were a real upgrade but I have to assume its verification scores are lower.

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Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation)

Snow since February 2019: 91"

2023-24: 6"

2022-23: 17.5"

2021-22: 17.75"

2020-21: 14.5”

2019-20: 10.5"

2018-19: 24.75"

 

 

 

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12 minutes ago, jcmcgaffey said:

On a serious note, can I ask how you remember all these past events in detail?

Do you keep a log on all these events?

I can remember most of the big events of the 20th century...I have a much better memory of 21st century events though as I’m only 21. I keep daily records too that also helps me remember. Justin has a much more detailed memory of historical events as well as the large scale weather features that accompanied them. 

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Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

If the new GFS were to verify that is literally a 19th century cold wave being depicted.  Absolutely epic cold for us and a sizeable part of the country.  One thing that's becoming abundantly clear is there are going to be some very powerful blocking features developing as we get into February. Some of the Omega blocks that have been shown on recent runs are insane.  It remains to be seen how the thing will set up though.

I don’t want to sound like Suzie sunshine here, but 2011 would be an example of an extemelY blocky February that eventually worked out, even if the first couple blasts went east.

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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36 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

00z not having it in the clown range. Dramatically muted with the airmass. Solid little clipper hits us beforehand, though.

It comes close enough.  Just a bit more tilt or back digging and it's here.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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8 minutes ago, jcmcgaffey said:

On a serious note, can I ask how you remember all these past events in detail?

Do you keep a log on all these events?

Combination of memory and research, and memorizing said research. 😁

I guess I have kind of a pronounced odd knack for memorizing obscure and often irrelevant info/numbers. Works for sports, geography, history, technology... With weather I formed a lot of my knowledge from the context of just picking apart climatology and past events. Wish I could remember to do things around the house half as well....

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1 minute ago, bainbridgekid said:

Anecdotally it seems much more prone to wild unrealistic solutions. I wish it were a real upgrade but I have to assume its verification scores are lower.

There is really no way to know that yet.  I would have to think the upgrade is real or they wouldn't have done it.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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2 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I don’t want to sound like Suzie sunshine here, but 2011 would be an example of an extemelY blocky February that eventually worked out, even if the first couple blasts went east.

The fact remains a lot of really crazy stuff has happened this winter like the amazing snow event in Spain, or the stuff currently going on in the SW United States.  The NE has had a couple of notable events.  All of this in a winter where we are theoretically the location most likely to end with a colder than normal winter given the base state.  We are due to score.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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2 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:

Wait. Scratch that. Forget Day 10. I think it would be beneficial to just have the GFS, GEM, ECMWF Op run to Day 5. Ensembles to Day 10. That would help with accuracy, more reliable trends, and the sanity of weather geeks world wide.

 

Yes/No?

NO.  I like the far out stuff.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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4 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

Combination of memory and research, and memorizing said research. 😁

I guess I have kind of a pronounced odd knack for memorizing obscure and often irrelevant info/numbers. Works for sports, geography, history, technology... With weather I formed a lot of my knowledge from the context of just picking apart climatology and past events. Wish I could remember to do things around the house half as well....

My memory of December 19, 1990, February 19, 1993, or December 29, 2003 is vivid. I could give you a detailed account of my day on February 18th and 19th, 1993. But ask me about last Tuesday and I could not tell you what I did that day. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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10 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Can't wait to see how it performs.  You would have to assume it's got to be better than the current GFS since it's an upgrade.

I don't think it works that linearly. Upgrading the architecture of a major global model requires pinpoint adjustments, each with their own biases that need correcting. The final product should be more accurate, sure, but as of right now it's tough to say.

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

My memory of December 19, 1990, February 19, 1993, or December 29, 2003 is vivid. I could give you a detailed account of my day on February 18th and 19th, 1993. But ask me about last Tuesday and I could not tell you what I did that day. 

The worst is me trying to remember grocery items without committing to lists. I have to make 2-3 return trips sometimes...

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8 minutes ago, Cloud said:

If anyone need a snow fix, watch the Truckee airport cam... just caught a glimpse of it and it’s blowing sideways.   Snow looks powdery and the wind is just blowing everything off the runway. It’s supposed to get heavier thru the night. 

The next couple days there are going to be insane.

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A forum for the end of the world.

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19 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

Combination of memory and research, and memorizing said research. 😁

I guess I have kind of a pronounced odd knack for memorizing obscure and often irrelevant info/numbers. Works for sports, geography, history, technology... With weather I formed a lot of my knowledge from the context of just picking apart climatology and past events. Wish I could remember to do things around the house half as well....

I remember specific activities during events but not all the exact meteorological specifics from a weather event. I wouldn’t mind going back again and researching how it all went down but I am just too lazy to piecemeal the different sites to compile it all.  I really need to document in detail past events which I may start doing (if someone wants to babysit my kids).

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