MWG Posted January 27, 2021 Report Share Posted January 27, 2021 I think for us here is donezo for the night. Temps are going back up 39. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dave Posted January 27, 2021 Report Share Posted January 27, 2021 I guess it's time to move the annual winter theweatherforums meetup to Forks. I'll take the bottom bunk. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcmcgaffey Posted January 27, 2021 Report Share Posted January 27, 2021 29 minutes ago, BLI snowman said: Kinda similar in terms of where the totals added up. Much different at 500mb though with a sharper low level cold push, as a large arctic airmass was barreling into the eastside of the region that day and that snow was the peripheral extent of it. The Portland area had a modest transition event the next day into the 13th, the "highlight" of said winter. On a serious note, can I ask how you remember all these past events in detail? Do you keep a log on all these events? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 27, 2021 Report Share Posted January 27, 2021 30 minutes ago, BLI snowman said: Kinda similar in terms of where the totals added up. Much different at 500mb though with a sharper low level cold push, as a large arctic airmass was barreling into the eastside of the region that day and that snow was the peripheral extent of it. The Portland area had a modest transition event the next day into the 13th, the "highlight" of said winter. Thanks. A lot of times, I remember the observed weather for certain days very vividly, but have no memory of the bigger upper level picture. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 27, 2021 Report Share Posted January 27, 2021 I think I like this new GFS better. 3 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weather_fan Posted January 27, 2021 Report Share Posted January 27, 2021 23 minutes ago, Kayla said: Oh good lord, I like cold but not that cold! Well it is good now it be wrong by 20 degrees and still produce snow Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted January 27, 2021 Report Share Posted January 27, 2021 If the new GFS were to verify that is literally a 19th century cold wave being depicted. Absolutely epic cold for us and a sizeable part of the country. One thing that's becoming abundantly clear is there are going to be some very powerful blocking features developing as we get into February. Some of the Omega blocks that have been shown on recent runs are insane. It remains to be seen how the thing will set up though. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted January 27, 2021 Report Share Posted January 27, 2021 6 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: I think I like this new GFS better. Can't wait to see how it performs. You would have to assume it's got to be better than the current GFS since it's an upgrade. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 27, 2021 Report Share Posted January 27, 2021 Nothing is clear after Day 3. Someone should hack the GFS so it only run to Day 10. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted January 27, 2021 Report Share Posted January 27, 2021 Back up to 40 after dipping down to 38 earlier...but the DP is down to 24 again. Some precip to the south still but not much. Quote Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted January 27, 2021 Report Share Posted January 27, 2021 10 minutes ago, jcmcgaffey said: On a serious note, can I ask how you remember all these past events in detail? Do you keep a log on all these events? Some of us actually remember individual events off the top of our heads. Talk about obsession! Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted January 27, 2021 Report Share Posted January 27, 2021 Was nice to have a couple of hours of wet snow this evening even though it didn’t stick. Going to have to go out to kitsap tomorrow to get my snow fix in. Still have lots of hope for February...interested to see if the ensembles all look good tonight. Quote Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bainbridgekid Posted January 27, 2021 Report Share Posted January 27, 2021 1 minute ago, snow_wizard said: Can't wait to see how it performs. You would have to assume it's got to be better than the current GFS since it's an upgrade. Anecdotally it seems much more prone to wild unrealistic solutions. I wish it were a real upgrade but I have to assume its verification scores are lower. 1 Quote Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation) Snow since February 2019: 91" 2023-24: 6" 2022-23: 17.5" 2021-22: 17.75" 2020-21: 14.5” 2019-20: 10.5" 2018-19: 24.75" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted January 27, 2021 Report Share Posted January 27, 2021 12 minutes ago, jcmcgaffey said: On a serious note, can I ask how you remember all these past events in detail? Do you keep a log on all these events? I can remember most of the big events of the 20th century...I have a much better memory of 21st century events though as I’m only 21. I keep daily records too that also helps me remember. Justin has a much more detailed memory of historical events as well as the large scale weather features that accompanied them. 1 1 Quote Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 27, 2021 Report Share Posted January 27, 2021 1 minute ago, snow_wizard said: If the new GFS were to verify that is literally a 19th century cold wave being depicted. Absolutely epic cold for us and a sizeable part of the country. One thing that's becoming abundantly clear is there are going to be some very powerful blocking features developing as we get into February. Some of the Omega blocks that have been shown on recent runs are insane. It remains to be seen how the thing will set up though. I don’t want to sound like Suzie sunshine here, but 2011 would be an example of an extemelY blocky February that eventually worked out, even if the first couple blasts went east. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted January 27, 2021 Report Share Posted January 27, 2021 36 minutes ago, BLI snowman said: 00z not having it in the clown range. Dramatically muted with the airmass. Solid little clipper hits us beforehand, though. It comes close enough. Just a bit more tilt or back digging and it's here. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted January 27, 2021 Report Share Posted January 27, 2021 8 minutes ago, jcmcgaffey said: On a serious note, can I ask how you remember all these past events in detail? Do you keep a log on all these events? Combination of memory and research, and memorizing said research. I guess I have kind of a pronounced odd knack for memorizing obscure and often irrelevant info/numbers. Works for sports, geography, history, technology... With weather I formed a lot of my knowledge from the context of just picking apart climatology and past events. Wish I could remember to do things around the house half as well.... 8 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted January 27, 2021 Report Share Posted January 27, 2021 1 minute ago, bainbridgekid said: Anecdotally it seems much more prone to wild unrealistic solutions. I wish it were a real upgrade but I have to assume its verification scores are lower. There is really no way to know that yet. I would have to think the upgrade is real or they wouldn't have done it. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 27, 2021 Report Share Posted January 27, 2021 Wait. Scratch that. Forget Day 10. I think it would be beneficial to just have the GFS, GEM, ECMWF Op run to Day 5. Ensembles to Day 10. That would help with accuracy, more reliable trends, and the sanity of weather geeks world wide. Yes/No? 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted January 27, 2021 Report Share Posted January 27, 2021 2 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: I don’t want to sound like Suzie sunshine here, but 2011 would be an example of an extemelY blocky February that eventually worked out, even if the first couple blasts went east. The fact remains a lot of really crazy stuff has happened this winter like the amazing snow event in Spain, or the stuff currently going on in the SW United States. The NE has had a couple of notable events. All of this in a winter where we are theoretically the location most likely to end with a colder than normal winter given the base state. We are due to score. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted January 27, 2021 Report Share Posted January 27, 2021 5 minutes ago, snow_wizard said: It comes close enough. Just a bit more tilt or back digging and it's here. Certainly just feels like we're going to see an extended -EPO block at some point in February. With a Nina I don't dislike our chances. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted January 27, 2021 Report Share Posted January 27, 2021 2 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said: Wait. Scratch that. Forget Day 10. I think it would be beneficial to just have the GFS, GEM, ECMWF Op run to Day 5. Ensembles to Day 10. That would help with accuracy, more reliable trends, and the sanity of weather geeks world wide. Yes/No? NO. I like the far out stuff. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 27, 2021 Report Share Posted January 27, 2021 00z ECMWF Day 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 27, 2021 Report Share Posted January 27, 2021 4 minutes ago, BLI snowman said: Combination of memory and research, and memorizing said research. I guess I have kind of a pronounced odd knack for memorizing obscure and often irrelevant info/numbers. Works for sports, geography, history, technology... With weather I formed a lot of my knowledge from the context of just picking apart climatology and past events. Wish I could remember to do things around the house half as well.... My memory of December 19, 1990, February 19, 1993, or December 29, 2003 is vivid. I could give you a detailed account of my day on February 18th and 19th, 1993. But ask me about last Tuesday and I could not tell you what I did that day. 1 1 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard777 Posted January 27, 2021 Report Share Posted January 27, 2021 Getting crazy there!!! https://truckeetahoeairport.com/webcam 1 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meatyorologist Posted January 27, 2021 Report Share Posted January 27, 2021 10 minutes ago, snow_wizard said: Can't wait to see how it performs. You would have to assume it's got to be better than the current GFS since it's an upgrade. I don't think it works that linearly. Upgrading the architecture of a major global model requires pinpoint adjustments, each with their own biases that need correcting. The final product should be more accurate, sure, but as of right now it's tough to say. 3 Quote Weather stats for MBY Snowfall: -Total snowfall since joining: 50.25" -2018-19: 21" -2019-20: 2.5" -2020-21: 13" -2021-22: 8.75" -2022-23: 5.75" -2023-24*: 0.25" -Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024 -Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021 -Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019 Temperatures: -Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021 -Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021 -Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cloud Posted January 27, 2021 Report Share Posted January 27, 2021 If anyone need a snow fix, watch the Truckee airport cam... just caught a glimpse of it and it’s blowing sideways. Snow looks powdery and the wind is just blowing everything off the runway. It’s supposed to get heavier thru the night. 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted January 27, 2021 Report Share Posted January 27, 2021 1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: My memory of December 19, 1990, February 19, 1993, or December 29, 2003 is vivid. I could give you a detailed account of my day on February 18th and 19th, 1993. But ask me about last Tuesday and I could not tell you what I did that day. The worst is me trying to remember grocery items without committing to lists. I have to make 2-3 return trips sometimes... 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RentonHill Posted January 27, 2021 Report Share Posted January 27, 2021 https://tahoetopia.com/webcam/sunnyside-resort this one is decent too. the airport one actually bugs me that its always auto-focusing and rotating. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 27, 2021 Report Share Posted January 27, 2021 Day 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cloud Posted January 27, 2021 Report Share Posted January 27, 2021 3 minutes ago, RentonHillTC said: https://tahoetopia.com/webcam/sunnyside-resort this one is decent too. the airport one actually bugs me that its always auto-focusing and rotating. If only these cams have the same quality as the one in Leavenworth. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted January 27, 2021 Report Share Posted January 27, 2021 8 minutes ago, Cloud said: If anyone need a snow fix, watch the Truckee airport cam... just caught a glimpse of it and it’s blowing sideways. Snow looks powdery and the wind is just blowing everything off the runway. It’s supposed to get heavier thru the night. The next couple days there are going to be insane. 1 Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcmcgaffey Posted January 27, 2021 Report Share Posted January 27, 2021 19 minutes ago, BLI snowman said: Combination of memory and research, and memorizing said research. I guess I have kind of a pronounced odd knack for memorizing obscure and often irrelevant info/numbers. Works for sports, geography, history, technology... With weather I formed a lot of my knowledge from the context of just picking apart climatology and past events. Wish I could remember to do things around the house half as well.... I remember specific activities during events but not all the exact meteorological specifics from a weather event. I wouldn’t mind going back again and researching how it all went down but I am just too lazy to piecemeal the different sites to compile it all. I really need to document in detail past events which I may start doing (if someone wants to babysit my kids). 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard777 Posted January 27, 2021 Report Share Posted January 27, 2021 2 minutes ago, Cloud said: If only these cams have the same quality as the one in Leavenworth. I want sound now with this storm 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted January 27, 2021 Report Share Posted January 27, 2021 Starting to flurry a bit here again. Been lots of 38-40 degree snow tonight with these low DPs. Quote Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cloud Posted January 27, 2021 Report Share Posted January 27, 2021 4 minutes ago, Front Ranger said: The next couple days there are going to be insane. Feel like right now it’s just child’s play with the 18-20mph gusts. It’s supposed to gust up to 50mph. Lol. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 27, 2021 Report Share Posted January 27, 2021 Day 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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Winterdog Posted January 27, 2021 Report Share Posted January 27, 2021 Crap, I’m up to 41.5. It was 36 about a few hours ago! East wind kicking up a bit. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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