Chewbacca Defense Posted January 27, 2021 Report Share Posted January 27, 2021 wow...temp has been all over the map tonight it was down to about 36, shot up to 41, and now back down to 33 with some light snow falling. 1 2 Quote Britton Rd Bellingham Weather Station: https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KWABELLI103?cm_ven=localwx_pwsdash Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meatyorologist Posted January 27, 2021 Report Share Posted January 27, 2021 1 minute ago, hawkstwelve said: Day 10 on both the ECMWF and GFSv16 aren't really that different from each other. Ridge pushing into the Aleutians, fairly amplified ridge off the US W Coast, trough carved out over the middle of the country, and another ridge near the Labrador Sea. The GFSv16 does have more cold air to work with in Canada but overall, same overall pattern at the 500mb level. Obviously doesn't mean D11-D16 are going to turn out the same but can't hurt that they look similar prior to that period. Yep. the amount of eye-gouging over run-to-run model variability is quite amusing. Overall the patterns being depicted are quite similar to one another, with minor perturbations causing expected downstream influences. 06z could be the Arctic express of a generation, followed by a similar 500mb pattern on the 12z, only shifted 200 miles west, so we get an AR event instead! Regardless, NA gets kold beyond ten days; that is a given. 1 Quote Weather stats for MBY Snowfall: -Total snowfall since joining: 50.25" -2018-19: 21" -2019-20: 2.5" -2020-21: 13" -2021-22: 8.75" -2022-23: 5.75" -2023-24*: 0.25" -Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024 -Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021 -Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019 Temperatures: -Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021 -Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021 -Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smerfylicious Posted January 27, 2021 Report Share Posted January 27, 2021 For the record, I believe it is snowing in Tahoe. Unlike our random prediction of flurries in Seattle coming from the mets, that one seems to have delivered. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meatyorologist Posted January 27, 2021 Report Share Posted January 27, 2021 4 minutes ago, Cloud said: Don't Nina tend to double dip? I wouldn't be surprise if we go into Nina again. I don't know enough about ENSO cycles to say anything definitive on the subject... maybe @Phil can answer that after he returns back from his bunker deep within the Appalachians. 1 Quote Weather stats for MBY Snowfall: -Total snowfall since joining: 50.25" -2018-19: 21" -2019-20: 2.5" -2020-21: 13" -2021-22: 8.75" -2022-23: 5.75" -2023-24*: 0.25" -Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024 -Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021 -Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019 Temperatures: -Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021 -Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021 -Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 27, 2021 Report Share Posted January 27, 2021 Just now, smerfylicious said: For the record, I believe it is snowing in Tahoe. Unlike our random prediction of flurries in Seattle coming from the mets, that one seems to have delivered. The nice thing about a climate like that, it is usually not marginal. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cloud Posted January 27, 2021 Report Share Posted January 27, 2021 They turned on the color features for the airport cam at Truckee... it looks a lot better. The light posts there are swaying. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GHweatherChris Posted January 27, 2021 Report Share Posted January 27, 2021 Officially nothing to root for in the believable range once again. #ripwinter20/21 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 27, 2021 Report Share Posted January 27, 2021 23 minutes ago, 1000'NorthBend said: Power has been out here and for the majority of North Bend since 9 PM. Fairly calm up here but apparently it’s been ripping in town. Back on again... it is pretty strange for the power to go out with an east wind event here. I was in NB around 8 and it was windy but nothing extraordinary for the valley. 1 1 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 27, 2021 Report Share Posted January 27, 2021 00Z EPS... 1 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meatyorologist Posted January 27, 2021 Report Share Posted January 27, 2021 I don't think the 06z has been buying my attempts at a jinx, so let me say this directly to the weather gods: You are GOING to give us cold and snow in the long range. COLD and SNOW. 1 1 Quote Weather stats for MBY Snowfall: -Total snowfall since joining: 50.25" -2018-19: 21" -2019-20: 2.5" -2020-21: 13" -2021-22: 8.75" -2022-23: 5.75" -2023-24*: 0.25" -Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024 -Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021 -Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019 Temperatures: -Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021 -Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021 -Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bainbridgekid Posted January 27, 2021 Report Share Posted January 27, 2021 6z NAM still showing a band of snow for the North Sound (Snohomish County North) between 4 and 10am. 2 Quote Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation) Snow since February 2019: 91" 2023-24: 6" 2022-23: 17.5" 2021-22: 17.75" 2020-21: 14.5” 2019-20: 10.5" 2018-19: 24.75" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meatyorologist Posted January 27, 2021 Report Share Posted January 27, 2021 Precipitation is beginning to fill in on radar for the Sound, but the atmosphere is beginning to warm. Wet bulbs around 33-35 now, enough for a wet snow or mix, but that will change to rain in a couple of hours. I think it's past the point of sticking below 500-800' up here. 1 Quote Weather stats for MBY Snowfall: -Total snowfall since joining: 50.25" -2018-19: 21" -2019-20: 2.5" -2020-21: 13" -2021-22: 8.75" -2022-23: 5.75" -2023-24*: 0.25" -Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024 -Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021 -Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019 Temperatures: -Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021 -Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021 -Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 27, 2021 Report Share Posted January 27, 2021 6z GEFS Day 6.5 ... Stronger NPAC trough that may be cutting off into a Kona. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 27, 2021 Report Share Posted January 27, 2021 Day 7 Rather substantial changes over the NPAC with the trough energy. I hate that nagging cut off though delaying ridge merger (Past 4 runs) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 27, 2021 Report Share Posted January 27, 2021 Day 5.5 to 7.5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 27, 2021 Report Share Posted January 27, 2021 Day 8 (Past 4 runs) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meatyorologist Posted January 27, 2021 Report Share Posted January 27, 2021 Looking at previous run-to-run comparisons, and there are very few stable trends in any of the features, except maybe pushing that high Arctic ridge more south and suppressing the jet further, and maybe pushing that initial NE Pac blocking feature a bit further east. But other than that it's mostly random noise and it will be interesting to see if some zanier solutions reappear in the fantasy range. Previous runs were not far off at all... 1 Quote Weather stats for MBY Snowfall: -Total snowfall since joining: 50.25" -2018-19: 21" -2019-20: 2.5" -2020-21: 13" -2021-22: 8.75" -2022-23: 5.75" -2023-24*: 0.25" -Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024 -Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021 -Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019 Temperatures: -Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021 -Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021 -Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meatyorologist Posted January 27, 2021 Report Share Posted January 27, 2021 My gut says that this block amplifies in a better position than the 00z, let's hope that I am right... Quote Weather stats for MBY Snowfall: -Total snowfall since joining: 50.25" -2018-19: 21" -2019-20: 2.5" -2020-21: 13" -2021-22: 8.75" -2022-23: 5.75" -2023-24*: 0.25" -Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024 -Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021 -Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019 Temperatures: -Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021 -Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021 -Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meatyorologist Posted January 27, 2021 Report Share Posted January 27, 2021 Close call with a 1989 redux, and a little bonus air behind it. One consistent theme here is Siberian air entering North America. Will it end up here? Who knows. Onto the 12z. 1 Quote Weather stats for MBY Snowfall: -Total snowfall since joining: 50.25" -2018-19: 21" -2019-20: 2.5" -2020-21: 13" -2021-22: 8.75" -2022-23: 5.75" -2023-24*: 0.25" -Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024 -Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021 -Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019 Temperatures: -Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021 -Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021 -Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smerfylicious Posted January 27, 2021 Report Share Posted January 27, 2021 Hopefully that fat block of beautiful cold slides 300 miles west. I think our ridge would have to float a bit further west than we would want for that though. Idk I'm a pleb. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FroYoBro Posted January 27, 2021 Report Share Posted January 27, 2021 Got a lot of cold rain last night. Surprised how wet it stayed. Would have been a lot of snow in better conditions. 36 and rain slowing down now. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted January 27, 2021 Report Share Posted January 27, 2021 Snowing lightly this morning. Ended up with about 3” overnight 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow maniac Posted January 27, 2021 Report Share Posted January 27, 2021 All my snow that fell yesterday evening is gone. up to 35 and light sprinkles now. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 27, 2021 Report Share Posted January 27, 2021 First precip from this system starting to fall here... sprinkles and 40 degrees. It was completely dry out there when I woke up at 6. 1 1 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 27, 2021 Report Share Posted January 27, 2021 7 hours ago, Cloud said: They turned on the color features for the airport cam at Truckee... it looks a lot better. The light posts there are swaying. Airport might be closed today... 2 1 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 27, 2021 Report Share Posted January 27, 2021 SLE s monthly departure Is now down to +2.4. 1 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 27, 2021 Report Share Posted January 27, 2021 Always interesting how the details within a trough position determine so much... this deep western trough has resulted in no measureable precip in my area. It was partly sunny for most of yesterday and will be partly sunny this afternoon. SEA has received .03 so far and that might be about it for this system... while places farther south along the West Coast get hammered. 1 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 27, 2021 Report Share Posted January 27, 2021 9 minutes ago, TT-SEA said: Always interesting how the details within a trough position determine so much... this deep western trough has resulted in no measureable precip in my area. It was partly sunny for most of yesterday and will be partly sunny this afternoon. SEA has received .03 so far and that might be about it for this system... while places farther south along the West Coast get hammered. I’m glad you are getting to dry out while Oregon and California pick up much needed precip. 4 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 27, 2021 Report Share Posted January 27, 2021 Just now, SilverFallsAndrew said: I’m glad you are getting to dry out while Oregon and California pick up much needed precip. Yeah... this is a great pattern for the rest of the West Coast. Deep troughs are usually much drier here in the winter than dirty ridging which can absolutely pound us with heavy rain. 1 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted January 27, 2021 Author Report Share Posted January 27, 2021 Currently light lumpy rain and 37! Happy Wednesday! 1 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kayla Posted January 27, 2021 Report Share Posted January 27, 2021 40 minutes ago, TT-SEA said: Airport might be closed today... Actually doesn’t look too bad. Vis over 1 mile. 1 Quote Cold Season 2023/24: Total snowfall: 26" Highest daily snowfall: 5" Deepest snow depth: 12" Coldest daily high: -20ºF Coldest daily low: -42ºF Number of subzero days: 5 Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard777 Posted January 27, 2021 Report Share Posted January 27, 2021 The answer to Culver’s questions yesterday. Redding California (3-4 inches according to local news). It was quite the kick watching the Truckee/Tahoe cam overnight! Loved the blowing heavy snow with swaying lamp posts!. Snow plows at it again to clear the tarmac. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rubus Leucodermis Posted January 27, 2021 Report Share Posted January 27, 2021 Just some flurries overnight with no accumulation. Now getting light chunky rain. 35˚F. 2 Quote It's called clown range for a reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard777 Posted January 27, 2021 Report Share Posted January 27, 2021 37* here with a dp 29* 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Supercell Posted January 27, 2021 Report Share Posted January 27, 2021 9 hours ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: My memory of December 19, 1990, February 19, 1993, or December 29, 2003 is vivid. I could give you a detailed account of my day on February 18th and 19th, 1993. But ask me about last Tuesday and I could not tell you what I did that day. Normally I'd recall weather the day before my birthday, but I'm guessing the west metro area had nothing noteworthy on 12/29/2003. I lived Bethany until July 2004. There was one day I remember hearing a couple loud claps of thunder, though I believe that was middle of December. 1 Quote Ashland, KY Weather '23-'24 Winter Snowfall - 5.50" First freeze: 11/1 (32) Minimum: 2 on 1/17 Measurable snows: 4 Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19) Thunders: 16 1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15 3/26, 3/30, 3/31, 4/2, 4/3, 4/8, Severe storms: 2 ------------------------------------------------------- [Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021] https://imgur.com/SuGTijl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MWG Posted January 27, 2021 Report Share Posted January 27, 2021 Dry in Medford! Partly cloudy and 38 degrees. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 27, 2021 Report Share Posted January 27, 2021 1 minute ago, Timmy_Supercell said: Normally I'd recall weather the day before my birthday, but I'm guessing the west metro area had nothing noteworthy on 12/29/2003. I lived Bethany until July 2004. There was one day I remember hearing a couple loud claps of thunder, though I believe that was middle of December. It was a pretty good snow event in the Mid valley. Especially the western part, cold air damming against the coast range. Dallas, Monmouth, and west Salem got pounded with like 6-10”. We had about 4” out in Silverton. Took several hours longer to transition to snow on the east side of the valley. 1 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 27, 2021 Report Share Posted January 27, 2021 1 minute ago, MWG said: Dry in Medford! Partly cloudy and 38 degrees. Quick! Hop in the car and drive to Cave Junction! 1 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Supercell Posted January 27, 2021 Report Share Posted January 27, 2021 1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: It was a pretty good snow event in the Mid valley. Especially the western part, cold air damming against the coast range. Dallas, Monmouth, and west Salem got pounded with like 6-10”. We had about 4” out in Silverton. Took several hours longer to transition to snow on the east side of the valley. Nice. Looked like my current location had a several day snow at the end of '03 as well. I recall Jan 2004 in good detail. 1 Quote Ashland, KY Weather '23-'24 Winter Snowfall - 5.50" First freeze: 11/1 (32) Minimum: 2 on 1/17 Measurable snows: 4 Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19) Thunders: 16 1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15 3/26, 3/30, 3/31, 4/2, 4/3, 4/8, Severe storms: 2 ------------------------------------------------------- [Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021] https://imgur.com/SuGTijl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 27, 2021 Report Share Posted January 27, 2021 Just now, Timmy_Supercell said: Nice. Looked like my current location had a several day snow at the end of '03 as well. I recall Jan 2004 in good detail. Northern California got pounded around the new year I know that. 1 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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