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January 2021 weather observations for the PNW


MossMan

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Wife just texted and said it’s snowing heavily again. Picked up a little more overnight. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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3 minutes ago, Jginmartini said:

Have the weather channel on this morning and they say this is and AR hitting down south at least currently.  Looks like the target zone is Fresno area.  

 

Interesting.   Does not look like a traditional AR to me on the IR satellite... but I could be wrong.    

Either way... if everything was farther north then it would likely be all rain up here anyways.  

 

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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25 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

12Z ECMWF shows some snow up north next Tuesday morning... Randy!  

 

ecmwf-deterministic-washington-snow_6hr-2288800.png

Well all I got is lumpy rain from my current shades of grey. Hope this works out a little better. 

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Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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It’s happening Tim.

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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13 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Early spring? 

You know I really hate it when people are so negative. The climate KNOWS.

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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27 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Interesting.   Does not look like a traditional AR to me on the IR satellite... but I could be wrong.    

Either way... if everything was farther north then it would likely be all rain up here anyways.  

 

I was reading the forecast discussion for lake Tahoe area and they called it that also. I think they just mean the jet and energy is aimed at them causing a train or river of moisture.

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We come from the land of the ice and snow.

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9 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

You know I really hate it when people are so negative. The climate KNOWS.

Pro tip, if a January 1950 redux is the only thing you are going to be able to get it up for you're probably going to be sad for the rest of forever.

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Just now, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

Yeah so far i give the pile of a winter a d.  

Yeah I’m downgrading from a C+ to a C-

That little dynamic snow in December and the big windstorm a few weeks ago are saving it from being a D-. 
This is turning out to be a terrible winter and the latest PNA forecast looks bad so I think this one might be over. Hope I’m wrong. I’m wrong a lot. 

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Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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1 hour ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Mark Nelsen thought the hi res WRF did well yesterday. 

I find for here the WRF ensemble mean is by far more accurate than any other model.  Has mailed our snow amounts time after time.  Only one bust, when it rained and was 34, and the WRF forecast snow.  It beats the NWS more than 80% of the time when there are major differences. 

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19 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

I was reading the forecast discussion for lake Tahoe area and they called it that also. I think they just mean the jet and energy is aimed at them causing a train or river of moisture.

Also, if the trough was less stretched out and more compact, it's very possible it could have brought snow to the lowlands up here given the amount of cold air that was pulled into it. I mean it brought snow to Redding down there where the best dynamics were. We just happen to be more up in no mans land with this particular type of pattern.

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if the snow won’t come to you, go to the snow, and it looks like it’s about to pick up.

I could see that ridge when I first got here but it is quickly disappearing 

F332B4A9-37C7-4E99-966A-8A3EFA2DBF97.jpeg

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4 minutes ago, Jesse said:

Also, if the trough was less stretched out and more compact, it's very possible it could have brought snow to the lowlands up here given the amount of cold air that was pulled into it. I mean it brought snow to Redding down there where the best dynamics were. We just happen to be more up in no mans land with this particular type of pattern.

I honestly have zero doubt we will enter a very good lowland snow pattern in the next few weeks sometime.

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We come from the land of the ice and snow.

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2 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

I honestly have zero doubt we will enter a very good lowland snow pattern in the next few weeks sometime.

There are always excdeptions, but late winters during a moderate La Nina like this is usually a pretty good bet for a shot at something.

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4 minutes ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said:

Good looking EPS.

 

1411264367_14-kmEPSGlobalNorthAmerica500hPaHeightAnom(2).gif

Much better ending there... I was just about to check it but should know if it's good then you will have already posted it! 

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Just now, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

We really are a bunch of dummies sometimes here. Same thing happened in January 19 everyone was talking about forks and jet ski's and gardens and then it hit!

Does not mean it will happen like that every time or even the majority of the time.  

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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5 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Justin's mid-February call is looking better today...

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-namer-t850_anom_stream-3044800.png

Exactly why all the winter cancel posts in mid to late January are ridiculous. Ensembles look decent still. Still a solid chance it works out...doesn’t mean it will but there’s a good chance. 

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Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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Low of 36 this morning...0.16” of cold rain. Didn’t end up going to green mountain today as my friend bailed last minute and didn’t feel like going by myself. 

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Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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10 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

Exactly why all the winter cancel posts in mid to late January are ridiculous. Ensembles look decent still. Still a solid chance it works out...doesn’t mean it will but there’s a good chance. 

Yeah... this is not the year to be cancelling winter early.  

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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7 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Do we ever max out on cancels/uncancels?  Kind of like attempts to open your iPhone?

Phred should make it so you get locked out of the forum after 3 cancels and uncancels! 

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Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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42 minutes ago, Chewbacca Defense said:

if the snow won’t come to you, go to the snow, and it looks like it’s about to pick up.

I could see that ridge when I first got here but it is quickly disappearing 

F332B4A9-37C7-4E99-966A-8A3EFA2DBF97.jpeg

Apparently the roads were in ok shape.  Looks beautiful and peaceful and it’s all yours :) 

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1 minute ago, ShawniganLake said:

The snow this morning has pushed my season total to 12”. Could be worse. 

2” of snow here the last 2 winters combined lol. We only average like 6” a year though. 

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Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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I'll make a bet that by the end of February my total lands somewhere over 20".

In March anything could happen.

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Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 11
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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