January 2021 weather observations for the PNW

[SnarkyGoblin]

3 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

We just had Feb 2019 less than two years ago.  Why are people so negative on here all the time?

It is just about February and at least the Puget Sound hasn't had much measurable snow this season.  There's bound to be some negativity with a crowd of weather enthusiasts.

Lighting does sometimes strike twice at the same location, but it's very rare.

[Prairiedog]

4 minutes ago, jakerepp said:

I’m still not sold on Lewis. Too many strikeouts, although his walk rate last year was encouraging. But he definitely slumped in the second half of the season. Hard to believe he’s only played 76 MLB games, so there’s room to develop still.

But there’s a lot to be excited about, for sure. I expect a fun, if not middling season in 2021, but then a real breakout and contending team in 2022 and beyond.

He was highly touted coming out of school.  M's were fortunate to get him at 11.  He's still on a big learning curve.  I think he'll be fine.  He's got all the tools.  He definitely slumped a little but he lost a lot of time because of injury.  Will be interesting to see how he develops.  I'm more uncertain about White than Lewis.  Talk about strikeouts.  Sheesh. I'm not a huge Gonzales fan either.  I just have trouble with guys throwing in the upper 80's I don't care how much control he has.  It's my own personal problem.  I did like Jamie Moyer though.  It always boils down to pitching though, no matter how you cut it.  There's some promise there now.  I'm excited.  First time since the 90's.

[SouthHillFrosty]

9 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

We just had Feb 2019 less than two years ago.  Why are people so negative on here all the time?

I am just comparing an artic blast to to the Mariners. We haven't had a true artic blast in awhile

[MossMan]

Not Jim...

https://youtu.be/5lPd9LscFXU

[Poulsbo Snowman]

20 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

The Mariners are like a artic blast, always a letdown and never happen

They happen in New York and Boston.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

A good way to know a model is way off base (wrong) is if it shows an arctic blast in the PNW.

[SouthHillFrosty]

10 minutes ago, Poulsbo Snowman said:

They happen in New York and Boston.

Yes true and the Yankee's and Red Sox's are good. Correlation? 

Artic blast if your baseball team is good?

[Front Ranger]

What did I miss today?

[Fircrest]

1 minute ago, Front Ranger said:

What did I miss today?

How soon the frogs will be croaking, will the Mariners ever win again, can the parallel GFS be trusted and Jim is onboard, but others are not.

[Meatyorologist]

24 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

It shows a PV over Alberta at the 500mb level.  Terrain has no influence that high up.  People get too hung up on that when talking about upper level stuff.

I think you don't fully understand what 500mb height maps actually show. They aren't showing the weather at that height, they merely show the altitude at which that pressure level exists. For PV lobes, their associated depressions at that 500mb plane are due to the air below it being colder than its surroundings; therefore being more dense and possessing less volume; meaning that it is a direct function of the air below it, not just the air at 500mb.

The air below 500mb is most definitely affected by the surface, as terrain over the SW Canadian Rockies commonly exceeds elevations higher than 10,000ft/3,000m/700mb. Arctic fronts, being strong cold fronts, are always surface fronts. If they weren't, there would be no Fraser/Gorge outflow during those events; a sign of a dense fluid flowing beneath a less dense fluid and seeping into the depressions in the terrain.

The current GFS architecture, which in my opinion handles surface fronts better than the currently in-dev GFSv16, is still too advection-happy, especially at the surface, for both WAA and CAA. This is a known bias by most mets around here.

I am not saying there isn't any potential for an arctic event; in fact I'm leaning towards the contrary... but what the GFSv16 shows, with that kind of blocking pattern, is a questionable solution at best.

[MossMan]

7 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

What did I miss today?

We are only allowed 10 winter cancel/Un cancel’s before we are permanently locked out of the forum. I had lumpy rain this morning, the EPS looked way better, the modern day MRF says history will be made soon, the Mariners will not make the playoffs until next year, a plane took off on a snowy runway in California, and Andrew said we are all being way too negative. 
There you go! 
Oh and FROGS!! 

[Prairiedog]

6 minutes ago, Fircrest said:

How soon the frogs will be croaking, will the Mariners ever win again, can the parallel GFS be trusted and Jim is onboard, but others are not.

We found out which models are proven to be completely trustworthy and which ones not but it's up to each to figure out which is which.  Some of us have it figured out which ones will kill the frogs and M's and send a few of our members home for an early spring.   

[Fircrest]

3 minutes ago, MossMan said:

We are only allowed 10 winter cancel/Un cancel’s before we are permanently locked out of the forum. I had lumpy rain this morning, the EPS looked way better, the modern day MRF says history will be made soon, the Mariners will not make the playoffs until next year, a plane took off on a snowy runway in California, and Andrew said we are all being way too negative. 
There you go! 
Oh and FROGS!! 

Nice! A more comprehensive list than I came up with. I knew a missed a few things things...

[bainbridgekid]

1 hour ago, snow_wizard said:

It shows a PV over Alberta at the 500mb level.  Terrain has no influence that high up.  People get too hung up on that when talking about upper level stuff.

I disagree. The atmosphere is a fluid. All levels impact the levels above and below them significantly.

500mb is ~18,000 feet. The idea heights at that level would be unaffected by a large 10,000 foot tall mountain range doesn't pass the smell test. There's a reason 500mb heights average significantly lower East of the Rockies and the mountains are a big part of that. Models 10-15 years ago were very bad at accounting for this effect especially in the long range but have improved a lot lately. It just seems to me the parallel GFS which is still in its infant stages as a model needs to have that dialed in more to be effective.

Doesn't mean we can't get an Arctic blast in February (I'd say we have a better chance than usual) and also doesn't mean I hate the GFS because it's clearly improved a ton in the last 10-15 years but the new one clearly needs some work.

[AbbyJr]

1 hour ago, snow_wizard said:

I'm really getting stoked about the prospects for February now.  Another epic parallel GFS run and the the 18z also had a very cold run on the GFS ensemble control.  Besides that the EPS was much better also.  The idea of a bridge between the PNA block and the NAO block is gaining more support all the time which means a displaced PV is pretty possible.

I like our chances too but there's no way the GFS Parallel solution verifies.

[Meatyorologist]

20 minutes ago, bainbridgekid said:

I disagree. The atmosphere is a fluid. All levels impact the levels above and below them significantly.

500mb is ~18,000 feet. The idea heights at that level would be unaffected by a large 10,000 foot tall mountain range doesn't pass the smell test. There's a reason 500mb heights average significantly lower East of the Rockies and the mountains are a big part of that. Models 10-15 years ago were very bad at accounting for this effect especially in the long range but have improved a lot lately. It just seems to me the parallel GFS which is still in its infant stages as a model needs to have that dialed in more to be effective.

Doesn't mean we can't get an Arctic blast in February (I'd say we have a better chance than usual) and also doesn't mean I hate the GFS because it's clearly improved a ton in the last 10-15 years but the new one clearly needs some work.

We said almost the exact same thing! 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

5 minutes ago, AbbyJr said:

I like our chances too but there's no way the GFS Parallel solution verifies.

Problem saying no way it verifies is crazy arctic outbreaks and crazy snow fall maps can and verified here. I remember all the ridiculous snow maps in February 19 and it happened. Actually I ended up with more snow than even the craziest map showed.  Many others did as well. 

[Gradient Keeper]

00z GFS Day 1

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Day 2

(Past 4 runs)

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Day 3

(Past 4 runs)

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Day 4

(Past 4 runs)

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Day 5

(Past 4 runs)

[Gradient Keeper]

Now Day 5-7 we watch the energy in the NPAC to see if it heads south for Hawaii cutting off Kona style.

[Meatyorologist]

Just now, DJ Droppin said:

Now Day 5-7 we watch the energy in the NPAC to see if it head south for Hawaii cutting off Kona style.

Yep. I'm watching exactly that.

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 6

(Past 4 runs)

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Day 6.5

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Day 7

(Past 4 runs)

[Gradient Keeper]

Not this run..... at least not before Day 10.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Jesus how hard is it to get a block at 150!

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 8 nah.........

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 9'er big time nahhh. Better luck next run or with the ensembles

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

That is some seriously cold air in Canada.  

[bainbridgekid]

00z puts -40 850mb temps into Northern Minnesota at day 10. About as cold as is possible.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Might want to take a look at the Canadian. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

GEM ALERT  

[SilverFallsAndrew]

[bainbridgekid]

Legit snowy arctic front at day 9 on the Canadian.

 

[Slushy Inch]

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

2 minutes ago, bainbridgekid said:

Legit snowy arctic front at day 9 on the Canadian.

 

The Bellingham to Williams lake gradient is 1990 status. 

[GHweatherChris]

Heavy rain