January 2021 weather observations for the PNW

[MossMan]

https://youtu.be/kRPGPAnPNa8

[Kolk1604]

4 minutes ago, MossMan said:

https://youtu.be/kRPGPAnPNa8

Your funny 

[Deweydog]

 

[SouthHillFrosty]

Forgot 384 hours out! This is only 200 hours out!!

[weather_fan]

Which is the best model for predicting this? 

[bainbridgekid]

The GEM solution is obviously very unlikely, but it's important to remember it's actually quite unusual for models to pick up on an arctic blast 2+ weeks out and that ones that happen are just as likely to pop up around day 9-10 without a lot of long range warning.

[SouthHillFrosty]

2 minutes ago, weather_fan said:

Which is the best model for predicting this? 

EURO usually but....GFS has been better on picking up on things in the last year

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

1 minute ago, bainbridgekid said:

The GEM solution is obviously very unlikely, but it's important to remember it's actually quite unusual for models to pick up on an arctic blast 2+ weeks out and that ones that happen are just as likely to pop up around day 9-10 without a lot of long range warning.

I went back in the gfs runs and found some solutions for that same time frame that were pretty close to what Canadian shows.  

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

4 minutes ago, weather_fan said:

Which is the best model for predicting this? 

The MRF. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

1 minute ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

The MRF. 

The ICON once we are inside 180 hours.

[luminen]

Sorry but I'm really looking forward to the first 25C day of the year.

This winter can go hide in shame. Horrible horrible winter. Even worse than 15/16.

[MossMan]

12 minutes ago, weather_fan said:

Which is the best model for predicting this? 

THE GEM!! 

[MossMan]

How’s the JMA looking? 

[Kolk1604]

20 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

EURO usually but....GFS has been better on picking up on things in the last year

GFS huh? K I'm rolling with the parallel! Bring on the single digit lows

[snow_wizard]

Tonight it's the GEM that has a great run.  I'm really starting to think this is going to happen now.  The GFS operational has temporarily kind of gone off track, but I think that's just a blip.  The big story is every model is showing high amp blocking, and a low somewhere near Hawaii.  The details will sort themselves out, but it should be a ridge somewhere in the 140 to 150 range when all is said and done.  It appears the bridge to the NAO block is gaining support also.  Even the operational GFS shows that later in the run.  It appears the parallel is heading for another good run.  It's running low tonight.

[snow_wizard]

3 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

That ridge axis is fairly close to the sweet spot.

The edges are smoothed out a bit given it's an ensemble but the mean position ain't half bad.

The EPS mean was good on position also on today's 12z.  This is coming together!

[Kolk1604]

1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

Tonight it's the GEM that has a great run.  I'm really starting to think this is going to happen now.  The GFS operational has temporarily kind of gone off track, but I think that's just a blip.  The big story is every model is showing high amp blocking, and a low somewhere near Hawaii.  The details will sort themselves out, but it should be a ridge somewhere in the 140 to 150 range when all is said and done.  It appears the bridge to the NAO block is gaining support also.  Even the operational GFS shows that later in the run.  It appears the parallel is heading for another good run.  It's running low tonight.

Yeah the parallel is running on dial-up tonight 

[Gradient Keeper]

Wow. I just saw the GEM. Yeah.... Just imagine IF by some magical rare miracle the EURO follows that 　 or even to a good extent 　 ....

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

3 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Tonight it's the GEM that has a great run.  I'm really starting to think this is going to happen now.  The GFS operational has temporarily kind of gone off track, but I think that's just a blip.  The big story is every model is showing high amp blocking, and a low somewhere near Hawaii.  The details will sort themselves out, but it should be a ridge somewhere in the 140 to 150 range when all is said and done.  It appears the bridge to the NAO block is gaining support also.  Even the operational GFS shows that later in the run.  It appears the parallel is heading for another good run.  It's running low tonight.

Is 150 ridge placement about perfect for a heavy snow pattern for us?

[Cloud]

So sick and tired of Comcast around these areas. I wish there’s a better alternative... is down constantly and at least once a month. Called in and their reasoning this time for the outage is because of the storm in California... like how the F? A storm in California is causing an outage up here? Really?! Paid way too much monthly for a crappy service. 
 

/end rant.

[Gradient Keeper]

00z ECMWF Day 1

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

The snow in Tahoe is ripping now. Snow is adding up fast in some of the cams.

[Cloud]

Just now, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

The snow in Tahoe is ripping now. Snow is adding up fast in some of the cams.

I don’t know if they brought the cam back up yet since my internet is down but last I checked they had to bring the airport cam offline. Must be bc the snow is covering everything up. 

[snow_wizard]

Quite a number of -10 and below ensemble members tonight.  Could we actually be looking at another major cold wave in February?  Really amazing to see how Feb has stepped up to the plate over the past decade.

[GHweatherChris]

6 minutes ago, Cloud said:

So sick and tired of Comcast around these areas. I wish there’s a better alternative... is down constantly and at least once a month. Called in and their reasoning this time for the outage is because of the storm in California... like how the F? A storm in California is causing an outage up here? Really?! Paid way too much monthly for a crappy service. 
 

/end rant.

We are having major issues the last hour as well with them.

[snow_wizard]

6 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

Is 150 ridge placement about perfect for a heavy snow pattern for us?

Yup.  150 is the best for Seattle.  It seems that about 145 is the best for Portland.  It took me a long time to figure that one out. it makes sense when you really look at it.

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 2

[SnarkyGoblin]

8 minutes ago, Cloud said:

So sick and tired of Comcast around these areas. I wish there’s a better alternative... is down constantly and at least once a month. Called in and their reasoning this time for the outage is because of the storm in California... like how the F? A storm in California is causing an outage up here? Really?! Paid way too much monthly for a crappy service. 
 

/end rant.

Too late to write something but....

 

[snow_wizard]

Definitely looks like the parallel is heading for something great.  Back digging at hour 204 down the BC Coast.

[TT-SEA]

7 minutes ago, Cloud said:

I don’t know if they brought the cam back up yet since my internet is down but last I checked they had to bring the airport cam offline. Must be bc the snow is covering everything up. 

I saw it was down and then it just came back up... at least temporarily.

 

[snow_wizard]

9 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

Improvement on the GEM and GEFS both under the 300 hour mark that's so often decried. 

Come on EPS... You know you want to...

The EPS was certainly getting there on the 12z.

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 3

[Meatyorologist]

1 minute ago, hawkstwelve said:

00z GFS operational was definitely a warm outlier. 

That's a great look. Lots of cold members.

[Cloud]

5 minutes ago, GHweatherChris said:

We are having major issues the last hour as well with them.

What’s actually really annoyed me recently with Comcast is the fact they put in a 1.2TB data limit for customers. The cost I can deal with.... but the downtime and data limit sucks. I almost hit it last month bc I spent a lot of time working from home as well. Now I really have to watch it carefully. So lame. 

[snow_wizard]

Parallel is cold before day 10.  This is getting real now.  I expect the regular GFS will come back on the next few runs.

[snow_wizard]

2 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

00z GFS operational was definitely a warm outlier. 

A good number of cold ones there.

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, Cloud said:

What’s actually really annoyed me recently with Comcast is the fact they put in a 1.2TB data limit for customers. The cost I can deal with.... but the downtime and data limit sucks. I almost hit it last month bc I spent a lot of time working from home as well. Now I really have to watch it carefully. So lame. 

Same thing happened to us... we decided to just pay for the unlimited.    The way they did it really sucked.

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 4

[SnarkyGoblin]

1 minute ago, Cloud said:

What’s actually really annoyed me recently with Comcast is the fact they put in a 1.2TB data limit for customers. The cost I can deal with.... but the downtime and data limit sucks. I almost hit it last month bc I spent a lot of time working from home as well. Now I really have to watch it carefully. So lame. 

You can pay extra to get unlimited data.  I think 20 bucks?

A perk to living in a city is more competitive pricing and more options.  My Centurylink symmetrical gigabit internet has unlimited data.  Think I used around 30 TB last month?  All for $65/month including taxes and fees.

Sorry, I know me telling you this doesn't help your situation. :(.

StarLink will be game changer for many and a worthwhile investment if it ever went public. 

[snow_wizard]

5 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:

Day 4

This may be the run we've been waiting for.  The GEM and GFD parallel we're both good by day 10.  Wouldn't be shocking to see the ECMWF good at that point.