January 2021 weather observations for the PNW

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

[Gradient Keeper]

Just now, Brian_in_Leavenworth said:

Much improved. Close to being amazing if the block were further east with a bit more tilt.

[Slushy Inch]

3 minutes ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said:

Oh wow

[snow_wizard]

We are talking dramatic improvement on the EPS.  Wow!

[GHweatherChris]

31 minutes ago, Jesse said:

Same.

I wasn’t able to pull up the 00z models or even this forum until I switched the WiFi off on my phone a minute ago.

I am just now able to pull up anything but google with wifi, from what I have been able to find out is it's a major issue nationwide tonight, according to a buddy who works for them locally.

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

[BLI snowman]

1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I lived in Bartlesville, Oklahoma for several years between 2006-2010 (Lickily the one winter I was in the PNW in that span was 08-09.). It got below zero a couple of times in that period, and that was at like 37N with almost no elevation (800’). In February 2011 they hit -28, which broke the all time record of -25 from 1930. They had highs in the mid single digits during the December 1983 blast. Cold air masses and strong CAA penetrate so much further south once you get east of the Rockies. 

When I talk to many non-native PNW people they often can't believe our latitude for that very reason. Salem which sits slightly inland is approximately the same latitude as Halifax, which sits on the coastline. Yet the January mean in Halifax is colder than Salem's coldest month on record and the mean snowfall in Halifax is higher than Salem's snowiest winter on record. The Pacific is a mighty strong force...

[snow_wizard]

15 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

You don't have to go very far north of Atlanta to find much colder weather east of the Rockies. Even the latitude of Nashville or Oklahoma City regularly outperforms the PNW for cold temps. It shouldn't be hard to admit that....

Oh I know.  We do have some exceptional winters that are pretty jaw dropping though.  One example I seem to recall is that NYC has only had one month that was colder than Seattle was in Jan 1950.  We can have great duration sometimes.

[Kolk1604]

Bah was trying to download the gif but I don't think I can. This was just shared on Twitter. Arctic air beginning to fill into western Canada and it looks like it's heading for the border!

 

[Slushy Inch]

Just now, Brian_in_Leavenworth said:

Got the temps?

[Gradient Keeper]

That's somewhat close to a Jan 1950 pattern. C'MON!!!!

[Cloud]

4 minutes ago, GHweatherChris said:

I am just now able to pull up anything but google with wifi, from what I have been able to find out is it's a major issue nationwide tonight, according to a buddy who works for them locally.

Sounds like a DDOS. 

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

1 minute ago, 12345WeatherNerd said:

Got the temps?

After about this time, it is not quite as good, but not bad at all.  This looks to be about the peak of the cold.

[snow_wizard]

25 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

Nice trends on the models...February’s going to have to be pretty decent to save this first nina winters reputation. 

It may well happen.  The first half of February is very capable of some top drawer stuff here.  Maybe we will actually have the goods in January one of these days.

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said:

After about this time, it is not quite as good, but not bad at all.  This looks to be about the peak of the cold.

Compared to a couple of days ago that is frigid.

[Cloud]

If the parallel GFS ends up leading the way here we need to take it very seriously. Even if it’s in its infant stages. And a great outlook for our weather forecast in general. I’m rooting for it. 

[Gradient Keeper]

All we need is the block a few notches to the east with improved tilt and bitter cold is coming.

[snow_wizard]

The EPS control is very good.  The third 0z run in a row that has been the case.  Let us hope we can build on this great improvement tonight.

[BLI snowman]

6 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Oh I know.  We do have some exceptional winters that are pretty jaw dropping though.  One example I seem to recall is that NYC has only had one month that was colder than Seattle was in Jan 1950.  We can have great duration sometimes.

Hmm, that's not quite accurate. Although they've been fewer and further between recently, Central Park has had a fairly large number of months that were comparable or slightly colder temp wise to that. Most recent being their crazy cold February in 2015 at 23.95F.

https://wrcc.dri.edu/cgi-bin/cliMAIN.pl?ny5801

Occasionally in the distant past our duration definitely does stack up. Portland a bit more so. The 8 consecutive highs below 20 in 1909 or the 19 consecutive subfreezing highs in 1930 do stack up very well with the extremes of the big Northeast cities.

 

[snow_wizard]

3 minutes ago, Cloud said:

If the parallel GFS ends up leading the way here we need to take it very seriously. Even if it’s in its infant stages. And a great outlook for our weather forecast in general. I’m rooting for it. 

I'm still rooting for the displaced PV it has shown on a few runs.  I'm thinking that might be what happened in late Jan / early Feb 1893 when we had that epic cold and snow.

[BLI snowman]

6 minutes ago, Cloud said:

If the parallel GFS ends up leading the way here we need to take it very seriously. Even if it’s in its infant stages. And a great outlook for our weather forecast in general. I’m rooting for it. 

00z Parallel GFS was dramatically less impressive, FWIW.

[snow_wizard]

17 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

Hmm, that's not quite accurate. Although they've been fewer and further between recently, Central Park has had a fairly large number of months that were comparable or slightly colder temp wise to that. Most recent being their crazy cold February in 2015 at 23.95F.

https://wrcc.dri.edu/cgi-bin/cliMAIN.pl?ny5801

Occasionally in the distant past our duration definitely does stack up. Portland a bit more so. The 8 consecutive highs below 20 in 1909 or the 19 consecutive subfreezing highs in 1930 do stack up very well with the extremes of the big Northeast cities.

 

November is a month we can stack up very well also.  I could have swore the book I looked at showed that NYC only had Jan 1977 as being colder than Seattle in Jan 1950.  As you know Jan 1862 was even colder.  At any rate I hate comparing like this.  Our climate is what it is and sometimes it delivers some solid stuff.

[snow_wizard]

2 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

00z Parallel GFS was dramatically less impressive, FWIW.

Yeah.....this run had the wrong tilt.  It would be rare for every run to be great at this range.

[Cloud]

1 hour ago, TT-SEA said:

I saw it was down and then it just came back up... at least temporarily.

 

Seems like my internet is up again so just checking out the snow down there. I look for certain point of interest on the camera to give me an indication how much snow have fallen there. There are black exhausts of some sort on top of one of the buildings that I look for when the camera is at this view. I can’t even look for it now since it’s completely blocked by the snow. lol  

[Cloud]

7 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

00z Parallel GFS was dramatically less impressive, FWIW.

I didn’t get a chance look at it yet due to net issues but thank you for the heads up! I’ll take a look at it

[snow_wizard]

Now we just need to get the good stuff showing up inside of a week.  Another cold February would be quite feat, and we may well do it.

[snow_wizard]

8 minutes ago, Cloud said:

I didn’t get a chance look at it yet due to net issues but thank you for the heads up! I’ll take a look at it

The parallel had chances to be great, but it took a wrong turn after day 10.

[GHweatherChris]

8 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Now we just need to get the good stuff showing up inside of a week.  Another cold February would be quite feat, and we may well do it.

Inside of 3 days is more like it, imo of course.

[snow_wizard]

Wow! The PNA goes below -3 on he EPS mean on this run.  The really interesting thing is some members and the control tank (and I mean tank) the NAO and AO as well.  That would result in the displaced PV the parallel GFS has been showing.  It could happen.

[Meatyorologist]

06z OP GFS sends it east again, but the GFSv16 has a better block placement. Still lots of numbercrunching to go here.

[Jesse]

2 hours ago, Meatyorologist said:

06z OP GFS sends it east again, but the GFSv16 has a better block placement. Still lots of numbercrunching to go here.

It’s basically already happened.

-Jim

[AlTahoe]

This has all fallen since 4pm yesterday. Storm total of about 36" now. Temps were Warner than expected which limited totals. 

[TT-SEA]

Here was the full 00Z EPS run... definitely some big improvements in the 10-15 day period as this next cold period comes into focus.

 

[jakerepp]

1 hour ago, AlTahoe said:

This has all fallen since 4pm yesterday. Storm total of about 36" now. Temps were Warner than expected which limited totals. 

Still looks pretty good! 

How strong have the winds been thus far?

[TT-SEA]

7 hours ago, BLI snowman said:

Hmm, that's not quite accurate. Although they've been fewer and further between recently, Central Park has had a fairly large number of months that were comparable or slightly colder temp wise to that. Most recent being their crazy cold February in 2015 at 23.95F.

https://wrcc.dri.edu/cgi-bin/cliMAIN.pl?ny5801

How did you get to this link on WRCC?    I can only find data for the western states.   I love seeing data go back to 1869... fascinating!

Just looked through the NYC stats... one thing that stood out is how much wetter is has been over the last 20 years compared to the first hundred years of this station.    Most years have been wetter than normal since 2000.   Also... there was about 8 different months with more than 10 inches of rain in the first hundred years and already 8 months with more than 10 inches of rain since 2000.     Its also much warmer than it used to be... and the warming has been pretty steady over the last 150 years.    Some of that is likely regional UHI.   I assume NYC and the surrounding area was much more rural and wooded back in the 1800s.  

[TT-SEA]

A band of moderate rain moving from south to north over Seattle this morning... totally dry out here and likely to stay that way through the day.    I can tell it did not even rain overnight here.     The clouds are broken right now so there will probably be some sun today as well.     

Also interesting that models once showed this band might be snow this morning.   Its currently 42 at SEA with a dewpoint of 38.

[TT-SEA]

Just a bit snowy at the Tahoe airport this morning...

 

[MossMan]

Currently 37 and light rain that might have some lumps again.

.02” so far on the day. 

[Phil]

9 hours ago, bainbridgekid said:

For some context though Atlanta's coldest HIGH is 7 and Seattle's only had 2 LOWS below 6 in the last 70 years.

Our lack of extreme cold doesn't bother me though. Below about 20 degrees you reach a point of diminishing returns for me since anything below about 25 freezes everything up solid anyway and it's harder to get snow at those temps. You also run into real headaches when temps get into the single digits and below. It's a small price to pay for our lack of extreme heat in the Summer since the proximity to the Pacific is what causes both.

Yeah, extreme cold can actually decrease the chance for heavier snowfalls across much of the CONUS, though you guys being downstream from such a prolific moisture source probably stems that concern to an extent.

The super cold air masses here are usually very dry, though. Exceedingly difficult for us to score a blizzard without an active Pacific/STJ. Usually (but not always) if the SW US is scoring, then we’re scoring too. Which might happen this weekend.

 

[Cloud]

21 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Just a bit snowy at the Tahoe airport this morning...

 

And more on the way too... doesn’t seems like it’ll let up until Friday morning. That’s like 36 hours of nonstop snow from yesterday afternoon after a brief break. Definitely an AR feature.