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January 2021 weather observations for the PNW


MossMan

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1 minute ago, bainbridgekid said:

That's exactly correct. Portland is often colder than Bellingham in backdoor blasts but front door blasts sometimes never really reach Portland at all.

Backdoor blasts can work for snow when a front comes in from the West and sucks the cold air in through the gaps.  Guessing some of Portlands best snowstorms are that scenario.   And maybe their worst ice storms

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2 minutes ago, jakerepp said:

Most I had in college was 14, against Edmonds CC, over 8 innings.  

Most in competitive games was 18 (7 innings)

I was 14 and on a 14U team, but we were playing against a 13U team. The field for this particular game was 54' mound and 80' bases. The only hit I allowed was a popup between first and second that the dinguses didn't communicate on. 

Fun times, but totally unfair to the kids I was pitching to. 

I think both of you played in the minors, correct?  

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48 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

-13c 850mb temps for Portland and Seattle, -22c for Spokane. Would easily be the coldest airmass since 2013-14.

Euro actually bottoms out at -15 for PDX. Been a while.

 

FB_IMG_1611863785621.jpg

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Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation)

Snow since February 2019: 91"

2023-24: 6"

2022-23: 17.5"

2021-22: 17.75"

2020-21: 14.5”

2019-20: 10.5"

2018-19: 24.75"

 

 

 

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1 minute ago, SalemDuck said:

From facebook
"So it begins...again. Commence 10 days of serious model riding folks"

Like to see how Rod Hill handles this. ;)

Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 11
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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3 hours ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Sandy

 

3 hours ago, Prairiedog said:

Doesn't really exist but some spots will give you a little better chance in our mostly marginal events.  Top of the West Hills, hills above Scappoose(that's a little further out), east county like Corbett, but there's not really a "snow zone" here unless you get out past Sandy towards Mt Hood on 26 above maybe 1,500ft.  You might eke out an inch or two in the higher elevations locally and certainly east county but only when those east wind events set up.  It's not Winthrop where you know you're gonna get feet every winter. 

Thats what I thought. I can dream.

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16 minutes ago, Acer said:

What is showing on the Euro today is a bit of a tweener I think, in that a fair amount of the cold is coming thru the Fraser river gorge.  A full on backdoor blast will pile the cold air up against the cascades with the Columbia gorge being the main outlet to the west.  In these cases the Fraser river cold is negligible and northwestern Washington doesn't get as cold.  Is that correct?

The Euro scenario is pretty unique in that the widespread cold advection occurs without the benefit of a closed vortmax developing. Very long range GFS-y kind of trick it’s pulling.  

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My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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8 minutes ago, jakerepp said:

Most I had in college was 14, against Edmonds CC, over 8 innings.  

Most in competitive games was 18 (7 innings)

I was 14 and on a 14U team, but we were playing against a 13U team. The field for this particular game was 54' mound and 80' bases. The only hit I allowed was a popup between first and second that the dinguses didn't communicate on. 

Fun times, but totally unfair to the kids I was pitching to. 

This time of year, I long for the smell of leather and cut grass.  It is such an emotional stimulant for me.  When I finally hung it up I desperately needed some kind of competitive outlet so I became a salmon and steelhead fisherman.  It helped but nothing will ever replace ball in glove, walking to the mound and thanking God I got to do this.  Now I'm 70 and I thank God I can pee, use the tv remote and drag my sled out to fish most days.  Play Ball!

I do love watching models torment me though with prospects of extreme weather.  I guess we all need a little adrenaline still in our veins whatever form it comes. Jumped out of an airplane for my 70th this summer.  Now that was stinkin fun. 

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2 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

The Euro scenario is pretty unique in that the widespread cold advection occurs without the benefit of a closed vortmax developing. Very long range GFS-y kind of trick it’s pulling.  

I was thinking the same thing. Hate to say it but the way the cold air just rushes in without a strong mechanism forcing that doesn't look very realistic to me.

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Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation)

Snow since February 2019: 91"

2023-24: 6"

2022-23: 17.5"

2021-22: 17.75"

2020-21: 14.5”

2019-20: 10.5"

2018-19: 24.75"

 

 

 

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Obviously the models take into account percentages of arctic intrusions, how often they go say east of the Rockies, east of the Cascades, or near the coast.  I would think that even though a great pattern may be setting up for us widespread, the models still put climatology and historical probabilities onto a much more weighted scale.

Am I wrong?

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Just now, TheNewCulverJosh said:

Obviously the models take into account percentages of arctic intrusions, how often they go say east of the Rockies, east of the Cascades, or near the coast.  I would think that even though a great pattern may be setting up for us widespread, the models still put climatology and historical probabilities onto a much more weighted scale.

Am I wrong?

Yes.

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My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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If an arctic front doesn't spin up a little low with some moisture it won't matter to me which direction it comes from.  It will either be front loaded with moisture or backloaded ending in a transition event.  Been a while here since we've had a legit arctic front that dropped snow then cold air filling in behind.  Those are the best when they do happen.  You guys up north like in Bellingham (and north of Seattle) have had several it seems the last couple years. 

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16 minutes ago, bainbridgekid said:

Euro actually bottoms out at -15 for PDX. Been a while.

 

FB_IMG_1611863785621.jpg

 

I think they hit -14c/-15c down here in December 2013. And -15c in February 2006 (the backdooriest of backdoors). Those two would be the 21st century benchmarks. December 1998 got down to around -17c which is getting into the big leagues.

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Taking a wait and see approach is best. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Taking a wait and see approach is best. 

Baby steps. Bob and his goldfish agree.

Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 11
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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12z Euro goes full Arctic out here. 700mb temps drop to -33C....😱 EPS shows pretty remarkable agreement for this far out.

Operational

160568990_ScreenShot2021-01-28at1_33_07PM.thumb.png.061053487aa77e3ef2dfd4347d38997e.pngEPS

1319243410_ScreenShot2021-01-28at1_33_19PM.thumb.png.c2521834433650cb32973ae0e20f7638.png

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Cold Season 2023/24:

Total snowfall: 26"

Highest daily snowfall: 5"

Deepest snow depth: 12"

Coldest daily high: -20ºF

Coldest daily low: -42ºF

Number of subzero days: 5

Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: 

https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history

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8 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

What’s the alternative approach? Crash and burn? Stop and frisk? Wake and bake?

Jumping on the wishcast express. As you mentioned, the evolution of the EUrO is not realistic.

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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55 minutes ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said:

I think both of you played in the minors, correct?  

I was drafted by the Phillies and was on the Gulf Coast league roster, but I never actually pitched before calling it quits.

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Home Weather Station Stats for 2023

High - Satans Bunghole

Lowest High - Not sure

Low - I don't have the data

Sub 40 highs - Not quite

Sub-freezing highs - Try again

Lows below 25 - You're joking

Lows below 20 - No

2023 Snowfall - LOL

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2 minutes ago, jakerepp said:

I was drafted by the Phillies and was on the Gulf Coast league roster, but I never actually pitched before calling it quits.

Orioles.  Played in the NW League, then played a bunch of years semi pro ball in Portland(while teaching).  Won the Casey Stengal WS one year, then hung it up when I was about 32. Coached for many years during that time while teaching and many years later after I was done playing. 

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6 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Jumping on the wishcast express. As you mentioned, the evolution of the EUrO is not realistic.

All things being equal, the Euro scenario in reality would be a bleed. Nice extrapolation potential at the end though!

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My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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Just now, Prairiedog said:

Orioles.  Played in the NW League, then played a bunch of years semi pro ball in Portland(while teaching).  Won the Casey Stengal WS one year, then hung it up when I was about 32. Coached for many years during that time while teaching and many years later after I was done playing. 

I remember the NW league, at least the version from the 80's to the 90's.  Saw Griffey Jr.  play a couple of games for the Bellingham Mariners.  It was fun to follow some of those guys that were able to climb their way through to the bigs.

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CPC is on board, at least with colder temps. 

 Probabilities of  
below normal temperatures are favored from the West Coast eastward to the  
Mississippi Valley as the predicted large-scale trough progresses east across  
the CONUS. Positive height anomalies near the East Coast increase chances of  
above normal temperatures there.
 
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: Well above average, 5 out of 5,  
due to very good agreement among the temperature and precipitation tools and an  
amplified long-wave pattern across the forecast domain. 
 

That is pretty rare for an 8-14 day forecast.

The official 8-14 day 500-hPa height blend consists of: 50% of Yesterday's  
operational 12z GFS centered on Day 10, and 50% of Today's 0z European Ensemble  
Mean centered on Day 11  

Todays EPS was even better.  

814analog.temp.gif

8 to 14 Day Outlook - Temperature Probability

 

8 to 14 Day Outlook - Precipitation Probability

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2 minutes ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said:

I remember the NW league, at least the version from the 80's to the 90's.  Saw Griffey Jr.  play a couple of games for the Bellingham Mariners.  It was fun to follow some of those guys that were able to climb their way through to the bigs.

there was some good talent that came through that league.  I remember pitching against the old Porltand Mavs in a tune up game getting ready to go to the Casey Stengal WS.  We had about 5 ex pro players on our team and just beat the tar out of them.  The old PCL was where the fun was.  Saw Louie Tiant and Sudden Sam McDowell pitch a double header at Civic Stadium when I was in HS.  Sweet Lou was there too. 

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I definitely feel like it’ll get colder in the long range. Not fully sold on the Arctic solutions yet. Either way lots of potential for something good to happen next month. This latest “cold snap” only produced one freeze albeit 28 degrees our coldest reading of the winter. Not even one sub 40 high temp...and some wet snow for a couple hours Tuesday night. Still only 2 freezes this January and only 7 so far this winter. 

Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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Lol 😂 

0EF1BE9A-0FFD-479E-AC99-8A4ED3804C50.jpeg

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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6 minutes ago, Prairiedog said:

there was some good talent that came through that league.  I remember pitching against the old Porltand Mavs in a tune up game getting ready to go to the Casey Stengal WS.  We had about 5 ex pro players on our team and just beat the tar out of them.  The old PCL was where the fun was.  Saw Louie Tiant and Sudden Sam McDowell pitch a double header at Civic Stadium when I was in HS.  Sweet Lou was there too. 

It is interesting not only the players who played FOR Bellingham, but also players on the other teams who played there on the road against them too.  

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Looks like Jim and I are the only one left onboard now. And even if it does happen I will probably end up catching COVID on day 1 and wouldn’t be able to enjoy it anyway. 🤒 

Maybe next year. 

Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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