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January 2021 weather observations for the PNW


MossMan

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11 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Computers don’t have the capability to rationalize things as to say “well, this solution would be really really unusual so we’ll scrap it for something more middle of the road.”

That’s where human interpretation becomes important.

Exactly, that is why the models suck so badly.  Not enough human interpretation is involved, IMO.

How many times do we get forecasts based on computer models, not human interpretation?  

I am pretty sure nobody knows the answer to this question which is why it is such a good question.  What is the algorithm?  Climatology vs. human interpretation vs. historical data...percentages?  

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13 minutes ago, Fircrest said:

Don't worry about it.  I love weather and baseball.  Went to my first Mariners game in the Kingdome in 1977 when I was 11 years old.  Been a fan ever since, through the bad years (there's been a lot) and the great times (a few).  Can always remember my wedding anniversary year because it was 1995 the year of the mariners great finish!

Don't know the exact date of the game you attended, but I think it was about 72f with calm conditions in the K'dome at first pitch.

Correct me if I am wrong....

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13 minutes ago, jakeinthevalley said:

Don't know the exact date of the game you attended, but I think it was about 72f with calm conditions in the K'dome at first pitch.

Correct me if I am wrong....

Yes! How did you know? 😀 Nice job keeping it weather related.

Never had a rainout in those days.

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27 minutes ago, Jesse said:

Seems like you took the downvotes pretty personally. Some do and some don’t. I am sorry about that. Even though I was using the button for its precise purpose. Doesn’t mean I am downvoting you as an individual :wub:

I do take that sort of thing personally, and won’t deny it. I know you’re not a troll dude. Just please keep try to stay positive man. Especially after 2020 lol. Much love to you and everyone else

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37 minutes ago, TheNewCulverJosh said:

Exactly, that is why the models suck so badly.  Not enough human interpretation is involved, IMO.

How many times do we get forecasts based on computer models, not human interpretation?  

I am pretty sure nobody knows the answer to this question which is why it is such a good question.  What is the algorithm?  Climatology vs. human interpretation vs. historical data...percentages?  

No, that’s not why models suck so badly.  Weather modeling is actually an incredible feat.  If anything, it’s us that suck.  We expect way too much out of them.  In general, modeling is magnificently accurate within five days and if you were to make a forecast based on a blend of the big ones within that time frame you’d way more often than not do pretty well.

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My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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Just so I’m clear we are tossing the EURO because what it’s showing is not feasible. We are going with the GFS now correct? Might go ahead and put the mower deck back on the mower since our lowland threat is over. 
Currently 41 degrees after a high of 44 and a low of 35.

.06” on the day. 

Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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2 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Just so I’m clear we are tossing the EURO because what it’s showing is not feasible. We are going with the GFS now correct? Might go ahead and put the mower deck back on the mower since our lowland threat is over. 
Currently 41 degrees after a high of 44 and a low of 35.

.06” on the day. 

Then that means I need to start shopping for a mower.  I wonder when Lowe's and Home Depot will start up their sales....

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54 minutes ago, jakeinthevalley said:

Baseball and weather.....mind like a steel trap

My baseball mind and weather mind are very much intertwined.  A lot of memorized stats that no one else gives two shits about.  Does anyone really care that Jesse Barfield led the AL in dingers at one point?

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My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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3 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Just so I’m clear we are tossing the EURO because what it’s showing is not feasible. We are going with the GFS now correct? Might go ahead and put the mower deck back on the mower since our lowland threat is over. 
Currently 41 degrees after a high of 44 and a low of 35.

.06” on the day. 

Naw were tossing the GFS and going with the Euro i think

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3 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

My baseball mind and weather mind are very much intertwined.  A lot of memorized stats that no one else gives two shits about.  Does anyone really care that Jesse Barfield led AL in dingers at one point?

I like football. 

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Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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2 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

My baseball mind and weather mind are very much intertwined.  A lot of memorized stats that no one else gives two shits about.  Does anyone really care that Jesse Barfield led AL in dingers at one point?

He would have had one more dinger but The Kid took it away in one of the greatest home run robberies of all time, but who's paying attention to such things. 

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29 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

No, that’s not why models suck so badly.  Weather modeling is actually an incredible feat.  If anything, it’s us that suck.  We expect way too much out of them.  In general, modeling is magnificently accurate within five days and if you were to make a forecast based on a blend of the big ones within that time frame you’d way more often than not do pretty well.

Right, but the question wasn't answered.

You have already said that human interpretation is involved.  How much so???  When they were writing the code, how much human involvement was there?  Did they just take it at face value or did they add some "humanity" to it.  

Not starting a "you're dumb Josh" debate or any flame war here.  You have stated that humans have to interpret the models.  Wouldn't that be written somehow into the algorithms/code?  Maybe they add things specific to this season based off of recent findings?  Maybe the computers don't know exactly how this year has played out versus history?  These are things to ponder.

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18 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Just so I’m clear we are tossing the EURO because what it’s showing is not feasible. We are going with the GFS now correct? Might go ahead and put the mower deck back on the mower since our lowland threat is over. 
Currently 41 degrees after a high of 44 and a low of 35.

.06” on the day. 

Yes. 

  • Sun 1

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Seattle afternoon AFD:

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...An upper trough stays
situated offshore into Monday with another frontal wave traveling
around its periphery for another rather wet day. The upper trough
finally moves onshore Monday night and Tuesday with precipitation
gradually decreasing. As we approach the middle of the upcoming
week, upper ridging seeks to establish itself just offshore.

This potential shift in pattern will need to be monitored as we
move into next week. It leads to a rather low confidence forecast
for later Wednesday and beyond. Depending on the amplitude and
placement of upper ridging offshore, it could open the door for
potentially colder systems to approach the region in
north/northwesterly flow aloft. This is reflected well in
drastically different deterministic model solutions. A number of
ensemble forecast model members are latching on to this
possibility with some rather chilly temperatures just beyond the
current forecast extended period. Stay tuned. 27
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11 minutes ago, MossMan said:

I like football. 

I played both, but I liked playing baseball a lot more, and was a lot better at it. There is a certain comradery on a baseball team, you just don't get on a football team. But I have to confess, I literally cannot watch more than 1-2 innings of a baseball game on television anymore. But I check out pretty much every box score from every game, and love going to games. On the other hand, I can watch pretty much any football game on TV and stay interested.

 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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2 minutes ago, Poulsbo Snowman said:

Seattle afternoon AFD:


LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...An upper trough stays
situated offshore into Monday with another frontal wave traveling
around its periphery for another rather wet day. The upper trough
finally moves onshore Monday night and Tuesday with precipitation
gradually decreasing. As we approach the middle of the upcoming
week, upper ridging seeks to establish itself just offshore.

This potential shift in pattern will need to be monitored as we
move into next week. It leads to a rather low confidence forecast
for later Wednesday and beyond. Depending on the amplitude and
placement of upper ridging offshore, it could open the door for
potentially colder systems to approach the region in
north/northwesterly flow aloft. This is reflected well in
drastically different deterministic model solutions. A number of
ensemble forecast model members are latching on to this
possibility with some rather chilly temperatures just beyond the
current forecast extended period. Stay tuned. 27

Nobody tell a soul!

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I played both, but I liked playing baseball a lot more, and was a lot better at it. There is a certain comradery on a baseball team, you just don't get on a football team. But I have to confess, I literally cannot watch more than 1-2 innings of a baseball game on television anymore. But I check out pretty much every box score from every game, and love going to games. On the other hand, I can watch pretty much any football game on TV and stay interested.

 

Thinking man's game. 

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8 minutes ago, TheNewCulverJosh said:

Right, but the question wasn't answered.

You have already said that human interpretation is involved.  How much so???  When they were writing the code, how much human involvement was there?  Did they just take it at face value or did they add some "humanity" to it.  

Not starting a "you're dumb Josh" debate or any flame war here.  You have stated that humans have to interpret the models.  Wouldn't that be written somehow into the algorithms/code?  Maybe they add things specific to this season based off of recent findings?  Maybe the computers don't know exactly how this year has played out versus history?  These are things to ponder.

The models are entirely statistical.  Obviously they have indirect knowledge of our climate norms just by virtue of having more knowledge about the current state of the atmosphere than any one human could possibly possess.

They are inherently flawed, particularly in the long range, due to the fact they can’t apply that knowledge in a more common sense and/or wisdom driven manner. If you read NWS forecast discussions you can seen this process taking place in narrative fashion, at least the offices that don’t phone it in.

Of course, this isn’t the only reason models can struggle.  Weather patterns are chaotic by their very nature.

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My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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Pretty nice EPS today if I do say so myself!  Looking at the individual members several show SEA having lows below 20 and some go below 10.  PNA on the mean almost drops to -4.  Of course now the GFS suite of models has backed off a bit now that the ECMWF suite is going all in.  Using the GEM as a tie breaker things are looking pretty good.  Hopefully the GFS will be all in tonight so we can get more confidence.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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2 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Just so I’m clear we are tossing the EURO because what it’s showing is not feasible. We are going with the GFS now correct? Might go ahead and put the mower deck back on the mower since our lowland threat is over. 
Currently 41 degrees after a high of 44 and a low of 35.

.06” on the day. 

The specifics of how the Euro gets cold here day 9-10 is highly suspect. Doesn't mean it won't get cold overall though. Second week of February looks pretty decent for that range.

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Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation)

Snow since February 2019: 91"

2023-24: 6"

2022-23: 17.5"

2021-22: 17.75"

2020-21: 14.5”

2019-20: 10.5"

2018-19: 24.75"

 

 

 

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BTW the control on the 18z GFS ensemble dropped to a measly -21 on the 850s at one point.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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1 minute ago, bainbridgekid said:

The specifics of how the Euro gets cold here day 9-10 is highly suspect. Doesn't mean it won't get cold overall though. Second week of February looks pretty decent for that range.

It actually looked pretty straight forward to me, but I didn't scrutinize it.  Very strong support from the EPS as well.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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1 minute ago, bainbridgekid said:

The specifics of how the Euro gets cold here day 9-10 is highly suspect. Doesn't mean it won't get cold overall though. Second week of February looks pretty decent for that range.

There is also the possibility the EURO and last night's GEM are just jumping the gun a little bit. The EURO was a pretty big outlier compared to its ensemble suite, but by about day 12-13 on the EPS the mean for PDX was down below -5C. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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3 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

It actually looked pretty straight forward to me, but I didn't scrutinize it.  Very strong support from the EPS as well.

I posted the spaghetti chart earlier. It was a pretty big outlier. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Also remember how crazy the models looked last January... but places from Seattle southward ended up with barely anything.  Even getting below freezing was a challenge.

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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1 hour ago, umadbro said:

116 wins was 2001

One of the greatest success and also greatest failure is that 2001 season. Maybe if 9/11 didn't happen it would've been a different story, everyone was rooting for the Yankees after it happened. We'll never know.

116 wins to not make it to the WS and also could have 117 wins if they didn't blow the double digit lead in Cleveland that summer. Looking back, it's amazing that with the talents the M's had they didn't ever make it to the W.S. 

Pat Gillick was also a great executive but did very little to replenish the farm and pretty left the system in shambles for years, until this very day. 

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21 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

The models are entirely statistical.  Obviously they have indirect knowledge of our climate norms just by virtue of having more knowledge about the current state of the atmosphere than any one human could possibly possess.

They are inherently flawed, particularly in the long range, due to the fact they can’t apply that knowledge in a more common sense and/or wisdom driven manner. If you read NWS forecast discussions you can seen this process taking place in narrative fashion, at least the offices that don’t phone it in.

Of course, this isn’t the only reason models can struggle.  Weather patterns are chaotic by their very nature.

Pendleton is definitely out then, lol.

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7 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Also remember how crazy the models looked last January... but places from Seattle southward ended up with barely anything.  Even getting below freezing was a challenge.

That was also a super vortex/+NAM year. Getting cold south of the border was an arduous task.

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15 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Also remember how crazy the models looked last January... but places from Seattle southward ended up with barely anything.  Even getting below freezing was a challenge.

I remember the last minute fire hose feature that came up the night before on the models that initially aimed the moisture at Seattle that would give it insane amount of snow. What unfortunately ended up happening was it was a little bit north and Port Angeles took the brunt of that storm and anyone N. of Seattle. It was VERY close last year for Seattle.

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4 hours ago, Monty808 said:

We should start a weather forum softball league. No joke lol

You guys would probably like my yard.  I have a couple acres and have a lighted wiffleball stadium with 25' foul poles and a faux jumbotron.  Some pretty good ballplayers would come by and hit, they started dominating me when I got in my 50's however.  My competitive baseball ended after HS, had a torn labrum from football and it was back in the day before you could really do anything about it so that limited my baseball and football future.  Ended up playing JC basketball instead.    

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We had some model hype about late November... then the second week of December was the focus... then Christmas... then the first week of January... then the middle of January... then late January.   All resulted in basically nothing.

And yet based on past years... we can probably assume the February hype will actually pay off.     We should just know we have to wait until February.   But nobody wants to think about that in November!

 

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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