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January 2021 weather observations for the PNW


MossMan

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14 minutes ago, Jginmartini said:

Hurricane Ridge today....finally!   One of those places I should of gone long ago. Absolutely beautiful and glad I went during winter.  Road was snow covered and ice ( groveled as well) but pretty easy to navigate. Will be back to snowshoe !!!   Temp up there was 30*  with plenty of ⛄️ 

712F44A9-BB85-447F-9A4E-E81097076BFD.jpeg

7F4FC411-77F7-473C-9899-6123CB231E27.jpeg

Those pictures look even more impressive than the Lake Tahoe stuff I’ve seen this week.

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25 minutes ago, Jginmartini said:

Hurricane Ridge today....finally!   One of those places I should of gone long ago. Absolutely beautiful and glad I went during winter.  Road was snow covered and ice ( groveled as well) but pretty easy to navigate. Will be back to snowshoe !!!   Temp up there was 30*  with plenty of ⛄️ 

712F44A9-BB85-447F-9A4E-E81097076BFD.jpeg

7F4FC411-77F7-473C-9899-6123CB231E27.jpeg

The top picture looks awesome. Loving the frozen tundra look

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49 minutes ago, Jginmartini said:

Hurricane Ridge today....finally!   One of those places I should of gone long ago. Absolutely beautiful and glad I went during winter.  Road was snow covered and ice ( groveled as well) but pretty easy to navigate. Will be back to snowshoe !!!   Temp up there was 30*  with plenty of ⛄️ 

712F44A9-BB85-447F-9A4E-E81097076BFD.jpeg

7F4FC411-77F7-473C-9899-6123CB231E27.jpeg

What AcreJake’s and my place will be looking like in a few weeks! 

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Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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Currently 40 after a high of 44 and a low of 35. 
0.00” of rainfall on the day. 
Also I’m so so sorry...the evening runs are going to suck due to me telling my wife about the impending February 2019 redux. She brought up the subject, I couldn’t resist. 

Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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1 minute ago, rsktkr said:

The quick rug pull is better than the slow rug pull.

Not that I want it to happen because I don't but if it's going to happen I hope it happens fast.....like tonight.

The way the models have been going a rug pull tonight may not mean a thing.

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2 hours ago, Cloud said:

Good snowstorm and for this particular area, the snow seems to melt rather quickly, 2'-4' of snow forecast and now the trees are bare free of snow in the distance? 

No melting today except for roads in direct sunlight. My high was 31F today. The tree avalanches that we get will knock all of the snow off the trees pretty quickly. When we get these big wet snow events the pine trees will have 24" or more of snow stick to them. When the storm is over one tree will lose its snow load. The outflow wind from that will kick off the next tree like a domino. An entire neighborhood can go from sunny to a 1-3 minute total whiteout until it ends. It's pretty crazy to see in person.

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Really fascinating how the storm that's going to hammer Chicago with snow tomorrow night won't even start causing precipitation till late tomorrow morning. Never seen a storm blow up from nothing like that in the middle of the country before.

received_897009301140925.gif

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Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation)

Snow since February 2019: 91"

2023-24: 6"

2022-23: 17.5"

2021-22: 17.75"

2020-21: 14.5”

2019-20: 10.5"

2018-19: 24.75"

 

 

 

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9 minutes ago, bainbridgekid said:

Really fascinating how the storm that's going to hammer Chicago with snow tomorrow night won't even start causing precipitation till late tomorrow morning. Never seen a storm blow up from nothing like that in the middle of the country before.

received_897009301140925.gif

Rare, but they do happen. Looks like fun.

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1 hour ago, MossMan said:

Currently 40 after a high of 44 and a low of 35. 
0.00” of rainfall on the day. 
Also I’m so so sorry...the evening runs are going to suck due to me telling my wife about the impending February 2019 redux. She brought up the subject, I couldn’t resist. 

I actually told my sons that a February 2019 repeat is coming.  My son who has a season pass at Snoqualmie Summit is going to Cozumel for 12 days in the middle of the month and he is pretty pissed. He missed the epic skiing in February 2019 as well when we were in Hawaii. 

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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13 minutes ago, bainbridgekid said:

Really fascinating how the storm that's going to hammer Chicago with snow tomorrow night won't even start causing precipitation till late tomorrow morning. Never seen a storm blow up from nothing like that in the middle of the country before.

received_897009301140925.gif

gfs_midRH_us_3.thumb.png.104d8e41225c8ce513e81c9d946dc4bc.png

Midlevel RH is pretty high. Doesn't need a lot of isentropic lift to initiate precipitation. Very dynamic storm.

Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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00z is running. So far at hour 30 it looks like yet another small notch west, or at least a minor perturbation in the ridge's tilt. Previous runs associated this western shift of the ridge base with a westward shift of the ensuing ridge.

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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trend-gfs-2021013000-f060.500h_anom_npac.gif.089c13964facf8e2c4d2526faf97b72a.gif

Very consistent trend to the west. Caving to the Euro.

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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22 minutes ago, bainbridgekid said:

Really fascinating how the storm that's going to hammer Chicago with snow tomorrow night won't even start causing precipitation till late tomorrow morning. Never seen a storm blow up from nothing like that in the middle of the country before.

received_897009301140925.gif

Miller-Bs are Bs to forecast. Could conceivably end up with anywhere from 3” to 10”+ here.

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5 minutes ago, Phil said:

Miller-Bs are Bs to forecast. Could conceivably end up with anywhere from 3” to 10”+ here.

I don't see how you don't get somewhat of a warm push with this system.  Chicago was just lucky they got the developing system before it turned north. I still think Chi-town gets more like 2-4" instead of the 5-8" forecast.  That high pressure is strong but too zonal and too far north of a low for your classic setup.

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13 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

I actually told my sons that a February 2019 repeat is coming.  My son who has a season pass at Snoqualmie Summit is going to Cozumel for 12 days in the middle of the month and he is pretty pissed. He missed the epic skiing in February 2019 as well when we were in Hawaii. 

Skiing will probably be great to by the time he gets back too. I woulda been p*ssed too if I missed February 2019 lol glad I was here and alive to see that myself. Hopefully we can get something even a half or 1/3 as impressive as that next month. 

Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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15 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

I actually told my sons that a February 2019 repeat is coming.  My son who has a season pass at Snoqualmie Summit is going to Cozumel for 12 days in the middle of the month and he is pretty pissed. He missed the epic skiing in February 2019 as well when we were in Hawaii. 

What's in Cozumel that is more important than a borderline snow event?

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7 minutes ago, 1000'NorthBend said:

I’m trying to decipher what leads to people having more confidence on this when it’s greater than a week out vs. other times when there’s been decent outputs greater than a week out and people doubt it. Is it agreement between models? Is it because it looks like a realistic scenario where other times it’s not a realistic or typical way to get snow? Is it a specific model showing it? Or is it just because it’s February and SOMETHING has to happen?

I try to ignore cumulative 2-week snowfall maps but I’m trying to nail down what to pay attention to.

 

Recent February climatology as well as advancements in timing, improvements in pattern details, and pure desperation. As far as I can tell nobody here is taking those LR snowmaps at face value.

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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Just now, Meatyorologist said:

Recent February climatology as well as advancements in timing, improvements in pattern details, as well as pure desperation. As far as I can tell nobody here is taking those LR snowmaps at face value.

Yeah I don’t really care about the snow maps fun to look at though. Ensembles and ridge placement is what most of us are getting excited about. 

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Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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trend-gfs-2021013000-f105.500h_anom_npac.gif.50d04b485d48b3c559f8d904f428ecb0.gif

Improved ridge merger around D4

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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6 minutes ago, TheNewCulverJosh said:

I don't see how you don't get somewhat of a warm push with this system.  Chicago was just lucky they got the developing system before it turned north. I still think Chi-town gets more like 2-4" instead of the 5-8" forecast.  That high pressure is strong but too zonal and too far north of a low for your classic setup.

Probably will be a warm push aloft. Suspect there’ll be a period of freezing drizzle Sunday night in/near the dryslot.

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5 minutes ago, umadbro said:

Looks like I'll break the 10" mark on rain for the month by tomorrow. Could even break 11" by Sunday. Impressive rain totals this month. 

 

Currently at 9.60"

If only that was snow..

😵😵😵

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