AbbyJr Posted January 30, 2021 Report Share Posted January 30, 2021 I'm still on board until we lose the EPS. Honestly, I have an incredible amount of trust for that model. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted January 30, 2021 Author Report Share Posted January 30, 2021 Going to be a dark day on the forum. Pretty dark up here currently as well...drizzle and 42. 1 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 30, 2021 Report Share Posted January 30, 2021 1 minute ago, TT-SEA said: I am actually surprised as well... February has been golden lately. That has me thinking it can still happen and this is just a temporary pull back. Could be. I guess it would be unrealistic to expect the models to be consistent for a week and half. TIME WILL TELL. 2 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 30, 2021 Report Share Posted January 30, 2021 Just now, MossMan said: Going to be a dark day on the forum. Pretty dark up here currently as well...drizzle and 42. Indeed. Just a dark day in general. COVID variants developing drug resistance. UGH. What a hell we are living in. 1 2 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted January 30, 2021 Report Share Posted January 30, 2021 1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: Indeed. Just a dark day in general. COVID variants developing drug resistance. UGH. What a hell we are living in. PDX might even hit 50 today ;( 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted January 30, 2021 Author Report Share Posted January 30, 2021 Andy in Woodinville was onboard yesterday...And so was I. 1 1 1 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 30, 2021 Report Share Posted January 30, 2021 1 minute ago, MossMan said: Going to be a dark day on the forum. Pretty dark up here currently as well...drizzle and 42. Now watch the 12Z ECMWF come through in a big way and completely flip the mood! 1 1 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 30, 2021 Report Share Posted January 30, 2021 PRINCE GEM isn't quite as bad, but still sucks. 1 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 30, 2021 Report Share Posted January 30, 2021 3 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: Indeed. Just a dark day in general. COVID variants developing drug resistance. UGH. What a hell we are living in. A third vaccine coming on line next week... one dose and easy storage. The fact that we have 3 vaccines in a year is nothing short of a miracle. 4 1 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 30, 2021 Report Share Posted January 30, 2021 12Z GEFS is trying again at 300 hours... looks similar to the EPS at that time. 1 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rsktkr Posted January 30, 2021 Report Share Posted January 30, 2021 I got my quick instead of slow rug pull thank God. I am really starting to look forward to ALL weather lately. Cold/snow is great but all other weather is feeling kind of great lately for some reason. 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted January 30, 2021 Report Share Posted January 30, 2021 1 minute ago, rsktkr said: I got my quick instead of slow rug pull thank God. I am really starting to look forward to ALL weather lately. Cold/snow is great but all other weather is feeling kind of great lately for some reason. You are the Martin Luther to Andrew’s church of suffering. 2 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted January 30, 2021 Report Share Posted January 30, 2021 WTF is going on with the GFS? It's taking a straight forward evolution and making it way too complicated. FWIW the 18z EPS was just the same as the 0z through day 6 (as far out as it goes). The 12z GEM was also just fine. Looks like the GFS is tripping over its own feet. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted January 30, 2021 Report Share Posted January 30, 2021 8 minutes ago, rsktkr said: I got my quick instead of slow rug pull thank God. I am really starting to look forward to ALL weather lately. Cold/snow is great but all other weather is feeling kind of great lately for some reason. This forum needs whatever you're on. 3 1 Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian_in_Leavenworth Posted January 30, 2021 Report Share Posted January 30, 2021 16 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: Indeed. Just a dark day in general. COVID variants developing drug resistance. UGH. What a hell we are living in. The vaccines still work pretty well with the new variants, maybe not as spectacular as with the "old" covid, but still better than most vaccines in general. And the Johnson and Johnson vaccine, while not as high with the prevention, is still extremely high, in fact near 100%, in protecting against death and hospitalization, even against the new South African strain. Dr. Scott Gottlieb: J&J Covid vaccine trial yields very good result (cnbc.com) "Across all geographies, the vaccine was 85% effective in preventing severe cases of Covid-19 after four weeks, according to J&J. Protection improved over time, the company said, with zero participants reporting a severe case after 49 days. Additionally, J&J said the vaccine provided complete protection against Covid-related hospitalizations after four weeks. 2 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted January 30, 2021 Report Share Posted January 30, 2021 It has to be coming down to how each individual run is handling the MJO. The GFS has been pretty wildly erratic on whether the wave will progress into region 7 or whether it will remain in 6. The ECMWF is more confident on a progression to 7. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 30, 2021 Report Share Posted January 30, 2021 4 minutes ago, snow_wizard said: WTF is going on with the GFS? It's taking a straight forward evolution and making it way too complicated. FWIW the 18z EPS was just the same as the 0z through day 6 (as far out as it goes). The 12z GEM was also just fine. Looks like the GFS is tripping over its own feet. I assume you mean the 06Z EPS. And FWIW... the new 12Z GFS looks very similar to that 06Z EPS run at day 6. 12Z GFS on top and the 06Z EPS on the bottom: Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted January 30, 2021 Report Share Posted January 30, 2021 Not sure why people think the GFS is gospel all of a sudden. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted January 30, 2021 Report Share Posted January 30, 2021 2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said: I assume you mean the 06Z EPS. And FWIW... the new 12Z GFS looks very similar to that 06Z EPS run at day 6. 12Z GFS on top and the 06Z EPS on the bottom: Yeah....I meant 6z. The EPS has the all important back digging though. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SalemDuck Posted January 30, 2021 Report Share Posted January 30, 2021 5 minutes ago, TT-SEA said: I assume you mean the 06Z EPS. And FWIW... the new 12Z GFS looks very similar to that 06Z EPS run at day 6. 12Z GFS on top and the 06Z EPS on the bottom: After day 6 the GFS puts multiple cutoffs in the ridge merger and makes a complete mess in the pacific Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterdog Posted January 30, 2021 Report Share Posted January 30, 2021 Oddly enough the 12Z is kind of a cold outlier mid run on the ensembles. And a warm outlier at the end Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted January 30, 2021 Report Share Posted January 30, 2021 41 minutes ago, TT-SEA said: Yes... the EPS is still decent. Although I said last night that it was not spectacular like I have seen at times in the past (e.g. February 2019). This is perhaps the highest amplitude LR cold signal on the EPS so far. Similar to Feb 2019. 2 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SalemDuck Posted January 30, 2021 Report Share Posted January 30, 2021 Euro looks much better at day 5 than the GFS 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted January 30, 2021 Author Report Share Posted January 30, 2021 3 minutes ago, Phil said: This is perhaps the highest amplitude LR cold signal on the EPS so far. Similar to Feb 2019. Sorry Phil, this one is over. And because of COVID I can’t enjoy my yearly trip to the boat show. Up to .01” of drizzle on the day. 1 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SalemDuck Posted January 30, 2021 Report Share Posted January 30, 2021 One of these models is going to look incredibly dumb. Massive differences at day 6. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 30, 2021 Report Share Posted January 30, 2021 7 minutes ago, SalemDuck said: One of these models is going to look incredibly dumb. Massive differences at day 6. The 12Z GFS is stronger with the block at day 6.5... the 12Z ECMWF looks more crashy which would be a good thing in this case. 12Z GFS on top... and 12Z ECMWF on the bottom. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 30, 2021 Report Share Posted January 30, 2021 Looks like the 12Z ECMWF is about to deliver after day 7. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted January 30, 2021 Report Share Posted January 30, 2021 ECMWF looks awesome through day 7. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 30, 2021 Report Share Posted January 30, 2021 Hammer dropping at day 7.5 1 2 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted January 30, 2021 Report Share Posted January 30, 2021 You can easily see where the GFS loses it in the evolution in the 6 to 7 day period. 2 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted January 30, 2021 Report Share Posted January 30, 2021 Just now, TT-SEA said: Hammer dropping at day 7.5 Perfect! 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted January 30, 2021 Report Share Posted January 30, 2021 Tremendous height crash between days 7 and 8. Wow! 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 30, 2021 Report Share Posted January 30, 2021 Day 8... its all about the energy that is shown to move over the top of the ridge (ECMWF) or blocked from moving over the top of the ridge (GFS). 3 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted January 30, 2021 Author Report Share Posted January 30, 2021 Guys! I’m back onboard! 2 2 2 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted January 30, 2021 Report Share Posted January 30, 2021 Fukkin A King. 1 Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmet Posted January 30, 2021 Report Share Posted January 30, 2021 ECMWF looks amazing by Day 8. Good ridge position to slide cold air south from Canada. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 30, 2021 Report Share Posted January 30, 2021 Model battle brewing!!!! 1 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmet Posted January 30, 2021 Report Share Posted January 30, 2021 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 30, 2021 Report Share Posted January 30, 2021 ECMWF is pretty darn consistent... 12Z run yesterday on top and new 12Z run today on the bottom. 7 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted January 30, 2021 Report Share Posted January 30, 2021 Euro looks kinda like 2/12/95. 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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