January 2021 weather observations for the PNW

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

27 minutes ago, 1000'NorthBend said:

If mid-February snow doesn’t pan out, we want to spend a couple days east of the Cascades to bask in some snow. What are the best non-touristy/popular areas (so not Leavenworth, Winthrop, etc.) to stay at for maximum snowage? We love Plain but we’d like to try somewhere different. 

Mazama averages over 120 inches per year.  Also holds the WA record for the coldest temo ever recorded in the state at -48 on Dec. 30, 1948.

 Not as touristy as Winthrop or Leavenworth.  Just about 20 minutes from Winthrop if someone wanted to do something touristy. 

This time of year that are has a lot of cross country skiers, as the whole Methow area has the largest network of nordix trails in North America.  We rented a cabin there one time between Christmas and New Years.  So quiet and peaceful, especially coming from Leavenworth, when December is so crowded.  People are around, but spread out throughout the region.

Downside is that it is further away, especially for North Sounders.

Stehekin is another great place, haven't been there in winter, but gets good snow and very quiet that time of year.  Have to take the ferry to get there though.

[Gradient Keeper]

Lillard time!

 

[Meatyorologist]

So far by hour 30, it does look like another minor adjustment west.

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 1

(Past 4 runs)

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 2

(Past 4 runs)

[Meatyorologist]

Yep, this is going to be further west and better merged. Fairly improved over the 18z. It seems that the Euro handles northward height propagation during blocking setups better.

[TacomaWaWx]

0.14” so far today. 9.41” on the month. 

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 3

(Past 4 runs)

[Gradient Keeper]

BC trough digging back better, merger looks healthier too.

[Slushy Inch]

4 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:

Day 3

(Past 4 runs)

Looking better and better.

[Meatyorologist]

Entire Pacific is adjusted westward.

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 4

(Past 4 runs)

[SouthHillFrosty]

Just now, Meatyorologist said:

Entire Pacific is adjusted westward.

[Gradient Keeper]

Merger and ridge strengthening still not nearly as strong as the EURO.

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 5 Not really seeing it unless there is a dramatic pivot/tilt.

(Past 4 runs)

[MossMan]

1 minute ago, DJ Droppin said:

Day 5 Not really seeing it unless there is a dramatic pivot/tilt.

(Past 4 runs)

Baby steps with the GFS...All you can ask for with that crappy model. 

[Gradient Keeper]

Nope

[Meatyorologist]

Much closer and more potent with Arctic air. Really the only thing I'm paying attention to right now.

[Kolk1604]

7 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:

Merger and ridge strengthening still not nearly as strong as the EURO.

I wonder if we can get Joe biden on these forums? He needs to see how bad this model is. Decommision it until they can pay to upgrade it. Embarrassing 

[Slushy Inch]

Pretty big improvement not going to lie.

[Slushy Inch]

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 6 This run is toast.... Onto the GEM and big EURO run!

[Meatyorologist]

GFS goes goofus in the LR. As to be expected.

[Meatyorologist]

FWIW, the GFSv16 is even further west than the operational GFS.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Not tonight!

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

6 minutes ago, 1000'NorthBend said:

Thanks for the tips. We are skate skiers so that area would be ideal, but 4 hr+ drive with a 6 mo old is brutal..

Warmest high temp of the last few weeks here today, 43°F! 0.07” of rain today. 

 

Yeah you might have to wait a few years.  A place like that is worth staying for more than a couple of days.  They also have hut to hut skiing.

http://www.rendezvoushuts.com/

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Prediction: tonight the euro caves!

[MossMan]

1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Prediction: tonight the euro caves!

Sorry Desert Mat has already claimed that spot. 

[Slushy Inch]

Winter is canceled. 

[BLI snowman]

6 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Prediction: tonight the euro caves!

00z GEM looks solidly west of the GFS in the 4-6 day period but took a big step towards the GFS in the 7-10 day range. 

We're going to be on the outside looking in with this...

[Gradient Keeper]

This is suddenly turning into a real long night. It happens.

[Gradient Keeper]

Just now, DJ Droppin said:

This is suddenly turning into a real long night. It happens.

or short night? (for model riding)

[BLI snowman]

1 minute ago, DJ Droppin said:

or short night? (for model riding)

This winter has been just been a disaster. Ready for it to be over. 

[Kolk1604]

4 minutes ago, 12345WeatherNerd said:

Winter is canceled. 

Listen it's not. I've already cancelled spring. Expect winter weather until June. 

[MossMan]

29 minutes ago, 1000'NorthBend said:

Thanks for the tips. We are skate skiers so that area would be ideal, but 4 hr+ drive with a 6 mo old is brutal..

Warmest high temp of the last few weeks here today, 43°F! 0.07” of rain today. 

 

Oh yes...Traveling with an infant/young child is always an adventure. We went to Chelan when my youngest daughter was 6 months, first two hours were nap time which was great, but then it was all downhill even with feeding/diaper changes...Oh the screaming memories!! But then a year later we fly to Mexico and both kids were an absolute dream haha! 

[Requiem]

To say this has been a horrid winter is pretty apt as optimistic as I’ve tried to been. At least some of us got a little snow last week, looking forward to spring. 

[Winterdog]

28 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Prediction: tonight the euro caves!

You are not really going out on a limb with that prediction.  

[MossMan]

Sorry night shift but I’m afraid your services will not be needed again until 11/20/21.

Fred will be mailing your final check and a $5 Walgreens gift card. 

[SouthHillFrosty]

20 minutes ago, Requiem said:

To say this has been a horrid winter is pretty apt as optimistic as I’ve tried to been. At least some of us got a little snow last week, looking forward to spring. 

701 days since I last had an inch of snow!!!

[OysterPrintout]

My prediction is the euro will cave but I'm not saying which solution it will even cave to since the GFS can't get its story straight for even 6 hours at a time