January 2021 weather observations for the PNW

[SalemDuck]

GEFS look decent but it’s at day 10+

[weather_fan]

Oh man this us frustrating. Might as well be 70 and sunny

[Ray]

1 hour ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

The one thing that is really disappointing about these model pullbacks is that we go from a potentially great pattern to just an absolutely awful one. It would be an easier pill to swallow if we at least went into a good snow pack building pattern, but we don't, not at all. As 2019 defied Nino climo, the first half of February 2021 looks to defy Nina climo. So much for the canonical Nina we kept hearing about. 

I'm an old guy and have been a weather geek since childhood.  Over the decades I have seen improvements in near term forecasting.  It's not a 100 percent but it is pretty good.  Despite the technological advances in my experience we really do no better when it comes to forecasting more than a few days out, let alone forecasting upcoming seasons.  I liken forecasts more than a few days out to watching a lotto jackpot grow and expecting to win it.  We hope and dream but is it really a surprise when we don't win?  I guess my point is it is fun to look at what may develop in the future but don't set your heart on it because we see real life, over and over, time after time, these longer range forecasts just don't have the accuracy worth pinning hopes on.  That said, maybe we will get lucky before the season is over but it will be just that, luck.

[AbbyJr]

I'm still not buying this model collapse.

Makes no sense we don't score something good in a phase 7 MJO.

Apart from minor changes to the timing, the EPS remains consistent.

At this point I'd still expect other models to cave to it.

While I could be wrong, I still trust the EPS.

[Fircrest]

3 minutes ago, Jesse said:

If this man exists I want to meet him and shake his hand.

Yeah, that man is not me.

[snow_wizard]

Welll...it appears we hit rock bottom on the models last night.  The 12z runs on the GFS, parallel, and GEM were all notably better than the 0z runs.  The bottom line is with the MJO in region 7 we have a highly elevated chance of a good pattern emerging.  We could see something very good show up on very short notice with this situation.

It is interesting to note the control model on the GFS ensemble had good runs on both the 0z and 6z.  If this model instability continues I may need a few stiff drinks soon.

[snow_wizard]

5 minutes ago, SalemDuck said:

GEFS look decent but it’s at day 10+

The operational actually got pretty decent at one point as well.  Things are coming back again.

[TT-SEA]

30 minutes ago, SalemDuck said:

GEFS look decent but it’s at day 10+

Seems to just go back to the default pattern which it has shown on every run in that period (the EPS is also showing this).

[Fircrest]

3 minutes ago, AbbyJr said:

I'm still not buying this model collapse.

Makes no sense we don't score something good in a phase 7 MJO.

Apart from minor changes to the timing, the EPS remains consistent.

At this point I'd still expect other models to cave to it.

While I could be wrong, I still trust the EPS.

But is it true that we always score in phase 7 MJO?  I thought we almost always do well in times of low Solar, high altitude blocking, La Ninas, etc. And the SSW was so promising! Not trying to be too negative here, but it is becoming obvious that a lot of these things don't seem to matter and we really don't know what each winter may bring us.  Of course, we may still have a fantastic February! We can only hope.

[snow_wizard]

The GEFS has a nice balance between the NAO and PNA blocks and they definitely bridge.  Lots of hope still.

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, Fircrest said:

But is it true that we always score in phase 7 MJO?  I thought we almost always do well in times of low Solar, high altitude blocking, La Ninas, etc. And the SSW was so promising! Not trying to be too negative here, but it is becoming obvious that a lot of these things don't seem to matter and we really don't know what each winter may bring us.  Of course, we may still have a fantastic February! We can only hope.

They do matter.  It's like having extra aces in the deck when playing poker.  You have an elevated chance of getting a good hand dealt to you, but there is still no guarantee.  Phase 7 is the single most likely phase to bring blocking to the sweet spot in the winter.

[Fircrest]

1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

The GEFS has a nice balance between the NAO and PNA blocks and they definitely bridge.  Lots of hope still.

Thanks for some hope.  I know we can always count on you to bring some optimism.  Let's make it happen this time! This roller coaster ride is rough. Of course we do it too ourselves. I could stay off the forum, but what would be the point of that!

[snow_wizard]

Hmmm...one thing that is much better on the 12z GEFS vs the 0z is strong ridging in the Eastern US.  I noticed the operational models emphasized that also.

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, Fircrest said:

Thanks for some hope.  I know we can always count on you to bring some optimism.  Let's make it happen this time! This roller coaster ride is rough. Of course we do it too ourselves. I could stay off the forum, but what would be the point of that!

All I can say is the pieces are there.  This is about as good of a background state as we can get to score.  During the first 5 days of the pattern evolution the thing we lost is the nice solid Kona low that was shown on earlier runs.  Recent runs have kept it from digging as well.  It appears another window pops up fairly quickly to get there though.

[TT-SEA]

3 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Hmmm...one thing that is much better on the 12z GEFS vs the 0z is strong ridging in the Eastern US.  I noticed the operational models emphasized that also.

I think the block over Alaska actually looked better on the 00Z GEFS.

12Z GEFS on top and 00Z run on the bottom.

 

[Blizzard777]

26 minutes ago, AbbyJr said:

I'm still not buying this model collapse.

Makes no sense we don't score something good in a phase 7 MJO.

Apart from minor changes to the timing, the EPS remains consistent.

At this point I'd still expect other models to cave to it.

While I could be wrong, I still trust the EPS.

To late ! I’ve already got shirts on the press! 

[AbbyJr]

10 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

All I can say is the pieces are there.  This is about as good of a background state as we can get to score.  During the first 5 days of the pattern evolution the thing we lost is the nice solid Kona low that was shown on earlier runs.  Recent runs have kept it from digging as well.  It appears another window pops up fairly quickly to get there though.

Here is last night's 00Z EPS. Looks solid to me.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Good grief, the 12z EURO may be the new rock bottom.

[TT-SEA]

10 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Good grief, the 12z EURO may be the new rock bottom.

Our block from the 12Z run yesterday for next weekend has completely vaporized.

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Wow, don't look at the EURO if you have a weak stomach. 

[umadbro]

GFS beats the Euro. Who'da thunk it?

[paulb/eugene]

Probably best to focus instead on finding a cheap Airbnb to stay in Norman OK in late April and May as a storm chasing base.   Got to find a way to cash in on these La Niñas

[TigerWoodsLibido]

3 minutes ago, paulb/eugene said:

Probably best to focus instead on finding a cheap Airbnb to stay in Norman OK in late April and May as a storm chasing base.   Got to find a way to cash in on these La Niñas

I’ll head on over to SoonerVille and see if I can grab a jersey while I’m at it. They’re the only Big12 school I don’t have yet. Last one I got was TCU a few weeks ago.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

14 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

Just catching up on the morning model runs and I see they still stuck. In fact in some cases (Euro), they got even worse. Not too much hope for lowland snow at the moment. 

Really regretting choosing to stay in Western WA when we moved last year, from a weather perspective. We were an eyelash away from moving to the Spokane/CDA area but a last minute promotion made us stay on this side of the mountains. We are still planning on moving either over there or if we are more adventurous maybe to the Midwest in 3-5 years. Can't come soon enough.

I had a job offer in Polson, Montana last March and ended up turning it down... Honestly though the north side of Flathead Lake is a lot nicer. If it had been in Kalispell I would have accepted. The uncertainty with the emerging pandemic was why I decided to turn it down. 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

3 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I had a job offer in Polson, Montana last March and ended up turning it down... Honestly though the north side of Flathead Lake is a lot nicer. If it had been in Kalispell I would have accepted. The uncertainty with the emerging pandemic was why I decided to turn it down. 

It's beautiful. As is the whole area on up to Glacier NP. When I looked on the map as a kid I thought the town name was Poison, MT.

[Front Ranger]

10 hours ago, Brennan said:

We arrived in Leavenworth late Wednesday night in the midst of back to back significant snowfalls. I have recently come to terms with my feelings about the climate in the western lowlands, and I really, really, really want to be east of the cascades... as i’ve gotten older, the rain.... the lack of sunshine has basically caused me to give up.....

the importance of sunshine has grown on me so much. With 3 kids now, we find it absolutely vital to be outside A LOT, and we just can’t enjoy the outdoors in the western lowlands most of the year. Dry and 25, we’re out in it! Wet and 37, give me a couch a blanket and the weather channel.

It's only raining like 10% of the time in Seattle.

[SalemDuck]

EPS is certainly better than the Op but is trending worse with each run

[Deweydog]

How would everyone grade your January experience?

[MossMan]

What a horrible weekend...Moderate rain and 44 degrees. 
Up to .20” on the day.

Going to be a grueling and depressing 3 months before some consistent sun and warmth is a possibility. Wish we were heading back to Mexico. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

2 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

How would everyone grade your January experience?

It was about the same as last January, except I appreciated the snow a little more this year. At least no matter what happens from here on out we have beaten the hideous 2014-15. 

[SouthHillFrosty]

2 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

How would everyone grade your January experience?

Call me crazy....but I am giving an A

[TacomaWaWx]

Up to 9.57” on the month. 0.06” so far this morning. Interesting temp fluctuations this morning...was 45-46 degrees from midnight to 8am. Spiked up to 50 about 9:30am and now has fallen down to 43 over the last 2 hours. 

[MossMan]

3 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

How would everyone grade your January experience?

4 days without power after that big  windstorm was sure fascinating! Would have been an F- - Otherwise. 

[TacomaWaWx]

4 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

How would everyone grade your January experience?

D minus. Had a decent windstorm on 1/12 and some wet snow for a few hours on 1/26 and those were the highlights! This whole winter probably also a D minus at this point as well. Had a trace of snow on 12/21. Wish I’d actually been in Washington for the one snow event we actually ended up getting lol. Atleast we’ve gotten some decent rainstorms throughout the winter. 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

12 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

How would everyone grade your January experience?

Better than last year so it's a start. Another F but not an F-

Unfortunately no sub-40F highs yet again, which seems weird. Currently +3.7F on the month and -1.35" for rainfall so another warmer and drier than normal month. Also seem to be piling those up of late. Hopefully that can level off as we get into summer and we could actually...you know...occasionally get some rain in July and August. Like what normally used to happen here.

[TT-SEA]

5 minutes ago, MossMan said:

What a horrible weekend...Moderate rain and 44 degrees. 
Up to .20” on the day.

Going to be a grueling and depressing 3 months before some consistent sun and warmth is a possibility. Wish we were heading back to Mexico. 

It feels like there has been a band of rain from Seattle westward for the last 3 days.   It has been dry out here 90% of the time in that period... and its dry again today with some sun visible through the clouds.

Its 54 degrees in North Bend right now and it seems like the east wind is picking up.

[jakerepp]

8 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

How would everyone grade your January experience?

The only redeeming qualities of this January is that it hasn’t been a torch fest the last 2 weeks. Otherwise, it’s been a solidly D grade month.

[Poulsbo Snowman]

Didn't the models flip flop in 2019 until we got 3 or 4 days out?  Even then, I don't recall the models showing 2' of snow in anyone's yard once they flipped, just before they finally flopped.

[AbbyJr]

20 minutes ago, SalemDuck said:

EPS is certainly better than the Op but is trending worse with each run

Yeah it's solid still but we don't want it to keep trending in this direction.

[AbbyJr]

6 minutes ago, Poulsbo Snowman said:

Didn't the models flip flop in 2019 until we got 3 or 4 days out?  Even then, I don't recall the models showing 2' of snow in anyone's yard once they flipped, just before they finally flopped.

They were fairly stable from what I recall once I started looking at them again. I'd given up hope for the winter until I decided to check them out again. I was pleasently surprised when I saw what they were advertising.