snow_wizard Posted January 31, 2021 Report Share Posted January 31, 2021 21 minutes ago, MossMan said: JAYA says nope. He doesn't know. Nobody does with all of this chaos. I thought his complain last time was no MJO wave. We have that now. No way he knows. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted January 31, 2021 Author Report Share Posted January 31, 2021 1 minute ago, snow_wizard said: A lot of cold weather on the 18z. Even the biff this week will bring some chilly temps. 3 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted January 31, 2021 Report Share Posted January 31, 2021 1 minute ago, Cloud said: 10 days ago the models was on board for 10 days out. Today the 18z is onboard for 10 more days out. Redux? Analog? At least the chances keep coming. We've seen this before and it finally happens. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted January 31, 2021 Report Share Posted January 31, 2021 The 18z is good by day 9 and good the entire rest of the way. At the end it's fantastic. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted January 31, 2021 Report Share Posted January 31, 2021 Chilly Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted January 31, 2021 Report Share Posted January 31, 2021 I'll be damned if the parallel doesn't look like the operational by day 10. Same cold setup. 2 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Slushy Inch Posted January 31, 2021 Report Share Posted January 31, 2021 5 minutes ago, Cloud said: 10 days ago the models was on board for 10 days out. Today the 18z is onboard for 10 more days out. Redux? Analog? The way I see it, the more it comes up in the models the better chance it has at occurring. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted January 31, 2021 Report Share Posted January 31, 2021 3 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted January 31, 2021 Author Report Share Posted January 31, 2021 1 minute ago, Deweydog said: Jim shaking Andrew’s hand at the top? 5 1 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted January 31, 2021 Report Share Posted January 31, 2021 Some OMG blocking on both models going forward. I'm nowhere near ready to give up on this! 5 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted January 31, 2021 Report Share Posted January 31, 2021 2 minutes ago, MossMan said: Jim shaking Andrew’s hand at the top? They both have lovely sets of teeth. 1 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted January 31, 2021 Report Share Posted January 31, 2021 The ensemble control model is cold by day 10 also. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Omegaraptor Posted January 31, 2021 Report Share Posted January 31, 2021 11 minutes ago, snow_wizard said: The 18z is good by day 9 and good the entire rest of the way. At the end it's fantastic. I need to go and get my passport renewed soon. I'll make sure to get one for that Arctic airmass on the 18z as well so it can get over the border. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 31, 2021 Report Share Posted January 31, 2021 10 minutes ago, snow_wizard said: The 18z is good by day 9 and good the entire rest of the way. At the end it's fantastic. What happened to the easy cold solution coming up in 5 days and the warm runs over-thinking it? 1 1 5 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted January 31, 2021 Report Share Posted January 31, 2021 2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said: What happened to the easy cold solution coming up in 5 days and the warm runs over-thinking it? I'm surprised it went the way it did. You just never know on his stuff. Thankfully it's abundantly clear we will get another stab at it. An interesting note is the parallel was the first model to pick on potential problems this week. A feather in its cap I suppose. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 31, 2021 Report Share Posted January 31, 2021 14 minutes ago, snow_wizard said: I'm surprised it went the way it did. You just never know on his stuff. Thankfully it's abundantly clear we will get another stab at it. An interesting note is the parallel was the first model to pick on potential problems this week. A feather in its cap I suppose. Yeah... you never know. Best not to spike the football before the goal line. 5 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted January 31, 2021 Report Share Posted January 31, 2021 4 minutes ago, TT-SEA said: Yeah... you never know. Best not to spike the football before the goal line. You mean fumble on the goal line? Spiking the ball with a running clock is actually beneficial since Pete will have burned his timeouts in the 3rd quarter...unless it's 4th and goal of course. 3 1 Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted February 1, 2021 Author Report Share Posted February 1, 2021 Up to .70” on the day!! Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Omegaraptor Posted February 1, 2021 Report Share Posted February 1, 2021 At this point, just tell me when Arctic air is 2-3 days out. Until then, I'm not buying it. Gotta see it to believe it. 8 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted February 1, 2021 Report Share Posted February 1, 2021 1 minute ago, Omegaraptor said: At this point, just tell me when Arctic air is 2-3 days out. Until then, I'm not buying it. Gotta see it to believe it. Don't blame you one bit! 1 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Skagit Weather Posted February 1, 2021 Report Share Posted February 1, 2021 Well, this was going to be one of my driest Januarys on record with just under 3" of rain, but then today certainly rectified that. Up to 0.57" on the day and still coming down. It will be interesting to see how much I end up getting. Already have almost 4 times as much as the WRF was predicting for today. Quote Home Wx Station Stats (Since January 2008): Max Temp: 96.3F (2009) Min Temp: 2.0F (2008) Max Wind Gust: 45 mph (2018, 2021) Wettest Day: 2.34 (11/4/22) Avg Yearly Precip: 37" 10yr Avg Snow: 8.0" Snowfall Totals '08-09: 30" | '09-10: 0.5" | '10-11: 21" | '11-12: 9.5" | '12-13: 0.2" | '13-14: 6.2" | '14-15: 0.0" | '15-16: 0.25"| '16-17: 8.0" | '17-18: 0.9"| '18-19: 11.5" | '19-20: 11" | '20-21: 10.5" | '21-22: 21.75" | '22-23: 10.0" 2023-24: 7.0" (1/17: 3", 1/18: 1.5", 2/26: 0.5", 3/4: 2.0", Flakes: 1/11, 1/16) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow drift Posted February 1, 2021 Report Share Posted February 1, 2021 1 hour ago, BLI snowman said: Yeah, 0/-18 day at Spokane on the 27th. PDX was 22/8. They don't make cold pools like that anymore! The whole month was bone chilling. Every year January arrives, and I hope for something like that. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post Dave Posted February 1, 2021 Popular Post Report Share Posted February 1, 2021 This has been one of the most disappointing winters in recent memory. Obviously, there is still a chance that something interesting occurs but I won't hold my breath. I do want to say thank you to all that have posted maps and model analysis for the past few months. It is greatly appreciated. 15 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted February 1, 2021 Author Report Share Posted February 1, 2021 4 minutes ago, Skagit Weather said: Well, this was going to be one of my driest Januarys on record with just under 3" of rain, but then today certainly rectified that. Up to 0.57" on the day and still coming down. It will be interesting to see how much I end up getting. Already have almost 4 times as much as the WRF was predicting for today. Up to .73” here now, 6.95” for the month. Wet. 1 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mtep Posted February 1, 2021 Report Share Posted February 1, 2021 Very wet day in Bellingham today. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted February 1, 2021 Report Share Posted February 1, 2021 0.15” today...9.66” on the month. Quote Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted February 1, 2021 Report Share Posted February 1, 2021 Snow just started in NYC 3 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted February 1, 2021 Report Share Posted February 1, 2021 1 hour ago, BLI snowman said: How's the sleet, Phil? Getting snizzle at the moment. Rates have been ~ 1”/year since 5pm. 6 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted February 1, 2021 Report Share Posted February 1, 2021 New NWS forecast is for 24-30” in E-PA/NJ. Jealousy is consuming my psyche. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted February 1, 2021 Report Share Posted February 1, 2021 11 minutes ago, Phil said: New NWS forecast is for 24-30” in E-PA/NJ. Jealousy is consuming my psyche. It could be worse you could be us here in the western PNW lowlands! 1 Quote Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dave Posted February 1, 2021 Report Share Posted February 1, 2021 Back to back turdfests. The record is 44.5. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterdog Posted February 1, 2021 Report Share Posted February 1, 2021 53 minutes ago, MossMan said: Up to .73” here now, 6.95” for the month. Wet. .55" today, 7.35" for the month and year. Still hopeful for some snow and cold but with 10 days out confidence. High today of 47, the 19th sub 50 max in a row. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted February 1, 2021 Report Share Posted February 1, 2021 10 minutes ago, dolt said: Back to back turdfests. The record is 44.5. What’s #1? 18-19? Lol Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted February 1, 2021 Report Share Posted February 1, 2021 10 minutes ago, Acer said: .55" today, 7.35" for the month and year. Still hopeful for some snow and cold but with 10 days out confidence. It would be really defying the odds if we strike out in Feb / early March. Something is likely to happen, but no guarantees obviously. One interesting thing to remember is that very often La Nina winters that don't work out here are terrible nationwide. That has not been the case this winter. Just going from from where we are at MJO, ENSO, QBO, low solar, etc wise in combination with the first half of the winter being such aa torch it is highly likely we will score before its over. As I've mentioned before the fact we are going have all the major indices tanked sets the stage for something pretty epic. We'll just have to wait and see. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted February 1, 2021 Report Share Posted February 1, 2021 19 minutes ago, dolt said: Back to back turdfests. The record is 44.5. We ended up a little bit lower this winter than last for Dec - Jan. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted February 1, 2021 Report Share Posted February 1, 2021 Just taking a quick look at my personal records last February was the coldest month last winter. It's like even our worst Febs right now end up close to normal even when the rest of the winter is awful. I'm still reasonably confident this one will end up below normal. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted February 1, 2021 Report Share Posted February 1, 2021 5 minutes ago, 1000'NorthBend said: Only 0.01” of rain up here today, we’re on quite a dry streak, 0.3” total over last few weeks. Went mountain biking at Tiger Mountain today, found snow at ~2,600’. The top (~3,000’) was snowy enough in spots to enjoy some slip sliding on the bike for a bit. It's been a lot drier here today than other places as well. I was pretty surprised. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Omegaraptor Posted February 1, 2021 Report Share Posted February 1, 2021 Just now, snow_wizard said: Just taking a quick look at my personal records last February was the coldest month last winter. It's like even our worst Febs right now end up close to normal even when the rest of the winter is awful. I'm still reasonably confident this one will end up below normal. Please don’t jinx it 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Christensen87 Posted February 1, 2021 Report Share Posted February 1, 2021 I’m still thinking the fun starts the week after the Super Bowl. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Omegaraptor Posted February 1, 2021 Report Share Posted February 1, 2021 Hillsboro got to 55 today. Given full overcast and 850s only 2°C or so, a little warmer than you’d expect. With HIO now getting warmer daytime temps than PDX two days in a row, looks like inversion season is coming to an end. Also, it got quite cold in both places 71 years ago. HIO was -10 and PDX -2. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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