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January 2021 weather observations for the PNW


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I SEE FLAKES! WE DID IT!  I would like to thank every single poster and lurker on this board for working so hard this winter. Everyone gave it their all and it ended up with Tigard getting their

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12z GEFS looks excellent with what appears to be continuous retrogression beginning around the 12th and jet retracting. CMCE similar. EPS showing signs of it, but a bit slower. Everything to me appears on track for a cold and fun back half of January through the 1st 10 days of February. Very encouraging. C'MON!!!!
 
floop-gefs-2021010212.500h_anom_npac.gif
 
floop-gefs-2021010212.200wh_npac.gif
 
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1 hour ago, TT-SEA said:

Really nice of this Nina to feature a permanent SE US trough!  

Great weather for us after this rain. Already got some new peat moss and lawn soil. Hoping to start overseeding in early Feb but it looks like I might be able to do it by MLK day. 

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8 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:
12z GEFS looks excellent with what appears to be continuous retrogression beginning around the 12th and jet retracting. CMCE similar. EPS showing signs of it, but a bit slower. Everything to me appears on track for a cold and fun back half of January through the 1st 10 days of February. Very encouraging. C'MON!!!!
 
floop-gefs-2021010212.500h_anom_npac.gif
 
floop-gefs-2021010212.200wh_npac.gif
 

Would be nice if it all verifies. Backloaded  winter > no-loaded winter.

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It's called clown range for a reason.

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1 minute ago, iFred said:

Great weather for us after this rain. Already got some new peat moss and lawn soil. Hoping to start overseeding in early Feb but it looks like I might be able to do it by MLK day. 

I think you might need to add add a pineapple to the list of available reactions.

It's called clown range for a reason.

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2 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

Would be nice if it all verifies. Backloaded  winter > no-loaded winter.

It's coming. I would prefer this progressed sooner in the 8-10 day period. It seems ensembles are definitely picking up on the major large scale pattern shift and the 12z GEFS most certainly sped up timing more aggressively retrograding the ridge. Perhaps we see that continue and Op runs begin to show this as well the next day or so.

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11 minutes ago, iFred said:

Great weather for us after this rain. Already got some new peat moss and lawn soil. Hoping to start overseeding in early Feb but it looks like I might be able to do it by MLK day. 

Might still be a little cold....

Screenshot_20210102-143215.png

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3 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:

It's coming. I would prefer this progressed sooner in the 8-10 day period. It seems ensembles are definitely picking up on the major large scale pattern shift and the 12z GEFS most certainly sped up timing more aggressively retrograding the ridge. Perhaps we see that continue and Op runs begin to show this as well the next day or so.

I can’t share your optimism because I’ve been burned by model riding too many times to want to do any more of it. That said, I’m mostly skeptical about model accuracy in general. I’m equally dismissive of all the Eeyores declaring a winter cancel.

If I’d have to bet money, I’d bet on getting some (more) winter excitement before it’s all over, simply because there’s a lot of winter yet to go, and it usually does snow in the lowlands (even in the Willamette Valley, winters with snow outnumber those without).

Second day in the row with wind advisory conditions that make my daily bike ride such a PITA that I skip it. Sure hope the wind is quieter tomorrow.

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It's called clown range for a reason.

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3 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

I can’t share your optimism because I’ve been burned by model riding too many times to want to do any more of it. That said, I’m mostly skeptical about model accuracy in general. I’m equally dismissive of all the Eeyores declaring a winter cancel.

If I’d have to bet money, I’d bet on getting some (more) winter excitement before it’s all over, simply because there’s a lot of winter yet to go, and it usually does snow in the lowlands (even in the Willamette Valley, winters with snow outnumber those without).

Second day in the row with wind advisory conditions that make my daily bike ride such a PITA that I skip it. Sure hope the wind is quieter tomorrow.

I remain cautiously optimistic. Let's say the over the next 3-4 days(By Wednesday 00z) there has been good run-to-run agreement on the ensembles showing retrogression, the NPAC/WPAC jet retracting then I will become quite confident.

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2 minutes ago, wxmet said:

The models just haven’t realized the SSW. When it happens a strong ridge of high pressure will set up in the GOA. A strong low will advect down  the B.C. with a 1060mb high already in place to the north causing  sub-freezing highs in the PNW. As the low rounds the base of the trough heavy snow expand across the Olympics and into the lowlands. The trough tilts negative and moves slowly to the North and East due to the blocking high. Heavy snow bands train over the same areas. Seattle records almost 2 feet of snow. Fresh Arctic air behind low keeps snow on the ground for over a week after the event.

This needs a DJ MBG!

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23 hours ago, Front Ranger said:

From what I understand, the West is most often affected first by SSW pattern shakeups.

If this one delivers, I don't think you'll have to wait until February.

 

From what I understand, the west is usually first affected during a North Atlantic SSW. However, during a Siberian warming (which is ongoing at this time) the west is usually last to feel its effects. That said, I don't think we'll have to wait until February. I'm looking at either mid month but more likely the last week of the month for an arctic outbreak in the PNW.

Models should start catching up in 5-7 days and then we will have a better idea of the details. In the meantime, long range models are going to be useless. So for all of you that are cancelling winter, I think you will be pleasantly surprised. 😀

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4 hours ago, Phil said:

The whole SSW process has trended into a more slow, prolonged displacement and shredding of the vortex vs a quick cut of the jugular. Now the major warming is just the opening act that throws the vortex off balance/tilts w/ height as it slowly bleeds out from follow up wave activity.

So perhaps the pattern response will be of the slow variety as well instead of a quick flip.

I'm hoping we don't have to wait until February. I'm still confident that we will see something by the last week of January.

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Hmmmm

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 0.5"                        2020-21: 27.38"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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4 hours ago, luvssnow_seattle said:

Hey everyone!  I have been loving the life here in Spokane WA. So glad to leave western WA (the swamp) behind. Had numerous snow since living here. Recent storm brought about 5 to 6  inches here in Spokane Valley. I will share more as winter progresses. Been very absent this year, since our move. :)

Congrats! Are you guys smack dab in the middle of the Valley or are you guys a little north? I hear that there are times where the Valley gets some cool freezing fog and icing events but a but north is doesn't even resemble Eastern Washington scrub.

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56 minutes ago, paulb/eugene said:

Can anyone shed some light on the February 1933 Arctic express resulting in all time low temp of -89.9F in Oymyakon Feb 6 then -54F in Seneca OR Feb 10?  Was this this the same airmass zipping over the pole in 4 days?

Nope, different airmasses at that point but two insanely cold sub vortices of the PV were obviously displaced at that same time. 

Fairbanks was a ridiculous -47/-60 on 1/28/1933 but had warmed to 28/7 by 2/8 (big Alaskan ridge) when the North American PV swung down into our region. That airmass did cover most of the lower 48 though. Dallas had 22/2 on 2/8 and Memphis was 14/6 while Chicago was -6/-19. It was historic in many spots.

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3 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

Nope, different airmasses at that point but two insanely cold sub vortices of the PV were obviously displaced at that same time. 

Fairbanks was a ridiculous -47/-60 on 1/28/1933 but had warmed to 28/7 by 2/8 (big Alaskan ridge) when the North American PV swung down into our region. That airmass did cover most of the lower 48 though. Dallas had 22/2 on 2/8 and Memphis was 14/6 while Chicago was -6/-19. It was historic in many spots.

-19/-36 day in Bozeman on the 9th as well. Really impressive airmass.

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Cold Season 2020/21:

Total snowfall: 56.0"

Highest daily snowfall: 12.0"

Highest snow depth: 14.0"

Coldest high: 9.0º

Coldest low: -5.1º

Number of subzero days: 2

Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: 

https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history

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5 minutes ago, Timmy said:

ABA49F8C-AA6B-43FD-A80E-30672A9BFD90.png

Yeah, but the other map had red over us and was more accurate. This is just pure hopium for the delusional snow lover.

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1 minute ago, Kayla said:

-19/-36 day in Bozeman on the 9th as well. Really impressive airmass.

Yep. 

In addition to Oregon, Texas of course set its state record with -23F at Seminole and Wyoming set its with a ridiculous -63F at Moran. Really impressive to have three state records spread out over 1500 miles apart with the same airmass.

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16 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

[384]

Yeah, I get it. It’s about as valuable as a twinkie in a Kansas 7-11. But the signal for some kind of pattern change, minor or major, is beginning to emerge.

At this point I’m just glad to see pretty colors within 16 days.

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FINALLY!  A good GFS run.  Many of us knew it would come, but seeing a good run is very encouraging.  Most things seem to point to the big shift coming in the Jan 15 to Jan 20 period.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.3"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 25

Lows 32 or below = 25

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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3 minutes ago, Kolk1604 said:

Meh I don't care what hour it is it's just nice to see some arctic air build in Canada. 

And...the pattern is actually decent well before hour 384.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.3"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 25

Lows 32 or below = 25

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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18 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

Yep. 

In addition to Oregon, Texas of course set its state record with -23F at Seminole and Wyoming set its with a ridiculous -63F at Moran. Really impressive to have three state records spread out over 1500 miles apart with the same airmass.

Back then the stratosphere wasn’t invented yet so it couldn’t have been SSW-related 

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If we can actually score something big in the last half of January it would be the first time since 1996.  Been way too long.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.3"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 25

Lows 32 or below = 25

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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15 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

FINALLY!  A good GFS run.  Many of us knew it would come, but seeing a good run is very encouraging.  Most things seem to point to the big shift coming in the Jan 15 to Jan 20 period.

Without knowing anything about the background state or anything else... almost everyone could predict that some random 18Z runs of the GFS will be good during the winter.  Every winter.   

Many of us knew it would come?    What does that even mean?   

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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I'm not sure if anyone has noticed or not, but the ECMWF is indicating some impressive CAA later tonight with temps falling well below 40 with heavy precip.  Kind of a lesser version of what happened 10 days ago or so.  Could be some wet snow in places.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.3"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 25

Lows 32 or below = 25

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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Just now, snow_wizard said:

I'm not sure if anyone has noticed or not, but the ECMWF is indicating some impressive CAA later tonight with temps falling well below 40 with heavy precip.  Kind of a lesser version of what happened 10 days ago or so.  Could be a some wet snow in some places.

Jim must have Tim on ignore 😯🤯

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1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

I'm not sure if anyone has noticed or not, but the ECMWF is indicating some impressive CAA later tonight with temps falling well below 40 with heavy precip.  Kind of a lesser version of what happened 10 days ago or so.  Could be a some wet snow in some places.

 

I have been posting about this for 3 days now... 

5 hours ago, TT-SEA said:

Snow between 10 p.m. and 4 a.m... 

 

ecmwf-deterministic-seattle-total_snow_10to1-9675200.png

 

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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2 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

Jim must have Tim on ignore 😯🤯

😁

Jim is busy taking a victory lap on the 18Z GFS.

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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