January 2021 weather observations for the PNW

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 3

(Past 4 runs)

[Gradient Keeper]

Energy pinching off/kona forming sooner this run?

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 4

(Past 4 runs)

[jcmcgaffey]

6 hours ago, TT-SEA said:

Very impressive...

Even if we didn’t get anymore rain will probable beat 13 day, 14 day, 15 day etc:) 

[Gradient Keeper]

Ridging trending stronger

[jcmcgaffey]

First snowflakes showing up on the 10day forecast!

[BLI snowman]

6 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Just hang loose, blood.

Jiveass dudes ain't got no brains, anyhow.

[Meatyorologist]

East Asia brings a whole new meaning to the term "weather weenie"... 

[Chewbacca Defense]

Tree fell on a dorm up at Western

 

https://www.q13fox.com/news/high-winds-topple-tree-onto-dorm-building-injuring-wwu-student

[Deweydog]

1 minute ago, BLI snowman said:

Jiveass dudes ain't got no brains, anyhow.

Chump don’t want no help, chump don’t get no help.

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 5

(Past 4 runs)

[Phil]

30 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Latest update is no power until tomorrow night at the earliest. So glad we got this generator. 6th power outage since Labor Day. Good lord. 

6th since Labor Day?? Bro that’s just incompetence. Or some insanely weak wood.

I haven’t lost power since the derecho in 2012. Last time lights even flickered was March 2018.

[Gradient Keeper]

HR 126 ridge merger

[TigerWoodsLibido]

C'mon, ridge bridge bitchh!!

[Phil]

33 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

I was gonna say faster than you go full Mr Hyde once someone does you wrong on the road. 

Touché.

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 6

(Past 4 runs)

[BLI snowman]

7 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Chump don’t want no help, chump don’t get no help.

Tell that to George Zipp!

[Dave]

This doesn't help get us the cool goodies, but it is pretty darn cool regardless.

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

9 minutes ago, Phil said:

6th since Labor Day?? Bro that’s just incompetence. Or some insanely weak wood.

I haven’t lost power since the derecho in 2012. Last time lights even flickered was March 2018.

Yeah it’s kind of ridiculous this year. We typically lose power 2-4 times in a winter. We are approaching a total of 2 weeks without power since Labor Day. Of course because of the fire they couldn’t even get in here and fix the lines for almost a week, that one was 8 days total. Most of the other have been 12-24 hours. One was about a day and a half, so we will pass that one. When I moved up here the first thing long time residents told me was to be ready for power outages. 

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 7

(Past 4 runs)

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

18 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Chump don’t want no help, chump don’t get no help.

Hey home, I can dig it. You know he ain't gonna lay no mo' big rap up on you man.

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 8

[BLI snowman]

Unfortunately this run looks even worse than the 18z...

[Deweydog]

9 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

Hey home, I can dig it. You know he ain't gonna lay no mo' big rap up on you man.

I prefer it black.  Like my men.

[Meatyorologist]

Block is negatively tilted to high hell and back. Plenty of time for that to change, though.

[Deweydog]

See!!!

All that panic for nothing!

[wxmet]

GFS has been trending with de-amplification of the western trough.

[Deweydog]

Just now, Meatyorologist said:

Block is negatively tilted to high hell and back. Plenty of time for that to change, though.

The issue is the trend, also represented pretty well in the ensembles, to maintain westerlies as the block quickly flees to the highest latitudes.  Definitely the same issue we’ve seen the last few winters.  Hopefully just a blip along the way.

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 9'er

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Glad operational runs are meaningless! 

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

New GFS

[Gradient Keeper]

1 minute ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said:

New GFS

That could be amazing and amazingly cold.

[Omegaraptor]

Why does the operational GFS keep inserting that little cutoff low into the AK ridge? Third run in a row.

[wxmet]

Feels like the GFS para has an amplification problem of just about everything

[jakerepp]

We're back on Airplane! quotes?

That's just what they'd be expecting us to do!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I would compare the new GFS to that political poll you know deep down is bullshit, but put all your hope in because it shows your preferred candidate way ahead.

[Gradient Keeper]

After a really nice EPS run I just about don't even take the GFS Op for much of anything. We shall see..

[Deweydog]

2 minutes ago, jakerepp said:

We're back on Airplane! quotes?

That's just what they'd be expecting us to do!

Get that finger out of your nose!  You don’t know where that finger’s been!

[paulb/eugene]

that’s not a snowstorm

[Jesse]

2 hours ago, Deweydog said:

Yeah, that would be cool to know.  Although you’d think there would have to be some degree of continuity to the perturbance otherwise it’d be hard to establish a baseline.

Yeah that’s where I was thinking statistics might come in. Maybe some of bell curve-esque thing as far as the different input parameters go. Seems like that could do a decent job to account for potential error.