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January 2021 weather observations for the PNW


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Just now, Brian_in_Leavenworth said:

Pivotalweather.com has ECMWF precip maps.  Have to go under ECMWF high resolution maps.

There is less snow through day 7 on this run than the last couple runs.   Pretty unimpressive. 

ecmwf-deterministic-nw-total_snow_10to1-1360000.png

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Some pics on the way up to my property.  The ones on the road are 1/4 mile down the road and the gate is the beginning of my 120 acre land.

I SEE FLAKES! WE DID IT!  I would like to thank every single poster and lurker on this board for working so hard this winter. Everyone gave it their all and it ended up with Tigard getting their

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Block looking better on Day 7 and the PV is dislodged further south and signs of bridging between the GOA and Greenland block.

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850s are solidly cold with northerly surface gradients on the Euro at day 7.  Pretty nice.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 35

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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1 minute ago, DJ Droppin said:

Day 8 nope!

500h_anom.na.png

 

At least that's more than a week out.  Time for it to change.  That could still work out too.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 35

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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That PV over Central Canada is the real wildcard.  If that thing can nose in here it will save us.  At any rate the ECMWF looks better than the GFS at day 9.  The low is further south and closer to the coast.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 35

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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Snow pack in Oregon is going to be around 50-60% of normal by next weekend. Pretty bleak.

Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 9.8"                        2020-21: 40.47"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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1 minute ago, DJ Droppin said:

Day 9'er Mammoth block just a nad too far west. Low offshore, with PV lobe digging towards BC...

500h_anom.na.png

 

This is still very doable.  Just a few tweaks and we're fine.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 35

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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1 minute ago, DJ Droppin said:

If that offshore low slipped southward we would see a prolific blast Day 10-11. IF. MAYBE. COULD BE. ALMOST. NEARLY. JUST ABOUT.

We just need that PV lobe to dig this far.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 35

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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1 minute ago, hawkstwelve said:

Sucks we have to waste a giant block like this...

1611532800-VrUbYCsHtaM.png

It hasn't happened yet.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 35

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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We'll just have to wait and see how things shape up he next couple of days.  I expect another change of "thinking" in the models, but will it be favorable is the question.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 35

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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2 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:

Day 10-11 would turn progressively colder. C'MON EPS turn us into ice cubes !

Yeah....it's not terrible at day 10.  The trough will probably swing inland.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 35

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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1 minute ago, DJ Droppin said:

SNOW!

floop-ecmwf_full-2021011600.prateptype_cat_ecmwf.us_nw.gif

sn10_acc.us_nw.png

Maybe enough cold air left over from the cold shot at day 7.  This is a lot better than the GFS.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 35

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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For people in the Puget Sound region the good news is easterly gradients are shown to be pretty weak when the precip arrives on this ECMWF run.  That would ideal for wet bulb cooling, but not enough to overpower the moisture.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 35

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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1 minute ago, hawkstwelve said:

More cold air to work with in BC near the end of the run vs. 12z, so that's something.

Maybe in another 11 days or so?

ecmwf-deterministic-namer-t850_anom_stream-1576000.png

I'm more confident now than I was 24 hours ago.

12z ECMWF in 10 hours 37 minutes

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2 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

More cold air to work with in BC near the end of the run vs. 12z, so that's something.

Maybe in another 11 days or so?

ecmwf-deterministic-namer-t850_anom_stream-1576000.png

Overall this is actually not too bad of a run.  It even shows some snow here.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 35

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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10 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Snow pack in Oregon is going to be around 50-60% of normal by next weekend. Pretty bleak.

Wanna hear something else bleak? Our coldest temp was 23F...all the way back on October 26.

Real great stuff after that pre-Halloween cold snap...

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Springfield, Oregon cold season 20-21 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 38F (Nov 21)
  • Coldest low: 23F (Oct 26)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 36 (Most recent: Feb 24, 2021)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 3 (Most recent: Dec 24)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 20.7"

GoFundMe: www.gofundme.com/CollegeBasketballvsEpilepsy

My Twitter @357jerseys4hope

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Just because it's not *exactly* tuned to a prolific, major week-long arctic blast with fifteen inches of snow doesn't mean it's "dreadful." C'mon people, you know how unreliable models are. The pieces are there, just...scattered, and very uncertain at that. Patience.

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Just now, Meatyorologist said:

Just because it's not *exactly* tuned to a prolific, major week-long arctic blast with fifteen inches of snow doesn't mean it's "dreadful." C'mon people, you know how unreliable models are. The pieces are there, just...scattered, and very uncertain at that. Patience.

It's easier to expect nothing in a given year in the winter weather department like what I grew up with during a large chunk of time growing up.

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Springfield, Oregon cold season 20-21 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 38F (Nov 21)
  • Coldest low: 23F (Oct 26)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 36 (Most recent: Feb 24, 2021)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 3 (Most recent: Dec 24)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 20.7"

GoFundMe: www.gofundme.com/CollegeBasketballvsEpilepsy

My Twitter @357jerseys4hope

24

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IF, and I realize it's a BIG IF, but IF the next few runs resolve that pesky cut off low in shunting the energy south into a kona low, we are going to see very cold runs ahead. I put that at 40% right now. Maybe 39.4%. Think Cold and SNOW! C'MON!!!!
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Surface obs aren't bad for SEA on this Euro run.  The last 5 day all have highs in the 38 to 42 range with lows mid 20s to low 30s.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 35

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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9 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

Just because it's not *exactly* tuned to a prolific, major week-long arctic blast with fifteen inches of snow doesn't mean it's "dreadful." C'mon people, you know how unreliable models are. The pieces are there, just...scattered, and very uncertain at that. Patience.

Anything with a sub 40 high and a few flurries is a win.

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Vegas moneyline odds of goodies hitting us below 500ft at any point have dropped to -110 from -300 36 hrs ago.

Springfield, Oregon cold season 20-21 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 38F (Nov 21)
  • Coldest low: 23F (Oct 26)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 36 (Most recent: Feb 24, 2021)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 3 (Most recent: Dec 24)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 20.7"

GoFundMe: www.gofundme.com/CollegeBasketballvsEpilepsy

My Twitter @357jerseys4hope

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