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January 2021 weather observations for the PNW


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17 minutes ago, AlTahoe said:

Went mt biking today up to 7200'. The only other year we could mt bike in Jan was 2015. #worstwinterever.

 

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Trees look sad. 😞 

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No idea this was going to happen today! Mcminnville  

Some pics on the way up to my property.  The ones on the road are 1/4 mile down the road and the gate is the beginning of my 120 acre land.

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1 hour ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

I hadn't purchased a sled in many years so I did some research.  This sled is pricey but built very good and is extremely fast. I tried it on road to my cabin and I hit 22 mph on my phone and the typical cheap sled would probably do 10 mph. Next time I'm wearing helmet!

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Here is my childhood sled...I nearly died on it a few times during the 80’s. 

DA63386E-8765-433F-9F8A-EFA4D62847B3.jpeg

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49 minutes ago, kokaneekidz said:

NWS SEA is prognosticating a NorthWesterly flow with too much Pacific Ocean influence to amount to a hill of beans for any of us other than Andrew and Tim.....

 


 .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...A cool upper low will  
  drop down from the northwest on Thursday--it is not impressive and  
  will probably not have much precip as it mostly misses Western  
  Washington on its way to northern California. A more substantial  
  front and upper trough reaches the area around Sunday and a third  
  system a few days after that. Each front and upper trough has colder  
  air aloft. Looking at GEFS 850mb temps--forecast members are  
  clustered mostly in a range of -4c to -7c, but those temps are  
  merely flirting with wintry weather if there is onshore flow. The  
  upper ridge around 145w next Thursday shifts to 160w into the last  
  week of January and we see a series of colder upper troughs with a  
  lot of over-water trajectory. That looks like a good recipe for a  
  low snow level and great skiing but not a lot of anguish for the  
  lowlands. 19 

  "not a lot of anguish for the lowlands."  Geeze.  Whoever wrote that is not a member of this board.

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18 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Here is my childhood sled...I nearly died on it a few times during the 80’s. 

DA63386E-8765-433F-9F8A-EFA4D62847B3.jpeg

I have a identical Flexible Flyer. I used to sharpen the edges with a file to make better turns when I was a child. Sighs.... The good ol days

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1 hour ago, Phil said:

 

A bigger problem for record keeping is contamination by UHI/land use changes. Most of the USHCN data records are poisoned beyond repair, and there seems to be little interest developing a surface station based data record away from urban/suburban locations. Which is flummoxing given this so called “climate emergency” politicians have been whining about.

https://news.utexas.edu/2010/11/15/rural-weather-stations-detect-warming-too/

It's called clown range for a reason.

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8 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

What’s your point? Has anyone claimed the observer warming is  solely an artifact of UHI? Because I certainly haven’t.

And the “corrections” referenced in the article aren’t for UHI, specifically. In fact the homogenization procedures are quite perplexing at times, and the net effect of all “corrections” has been to quadruple the rate of warming in the raw data (and to *increase* it with respect to time).

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15 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

Way more complicated than that.  There is also the problem of paint. They need to constantly repaint the weather stations (but they don't), and that leads to artificial warming).  Has been a big problem.  Most likely the rural weather stations are also not being repainted often enough.  Comparative analysis of the influence of solar radiation screen ageing on temperature measurements by means of weather stations - Lopardo - 2014 - International Journal of Climatology - Wiley Online Library

And there is time of day adjustments in the past, etc.  Really hard to get a good feel of what is happening or not happening, not nearly as simple as what anyone says it is.  

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Looked like it was clearing out earlier, but can already see mid level clouds backfilling from the Cascades now. Should be yet another insulated night in the low 40s.

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3 minutes ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said:

Way more complicated than that.  There is also the problem of paint. They need to constantly repaint the weather stations (but they don't), and that leads to artificial warming).  Has been a big problem.  Most likely the rural weather stations are also not being repainted often enough.  Comparative analysis of the influence of solar radiation screen ageing on temperature measurements by means of weather stations - Lopardo - 2014 - International Journal of Climatology - Wiley Online Library

And there is time of day adjustments in the past, etc.  Really hard to get a good feel of what is happening or not happening, not nearly as simple as what anyone says it is.  

Acutally, it's pretty easy to see the planet is warming. Many, many signs point to it, not just weather station readings.

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It's called clown range for a reason.

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2 minutes ago, Jesse said:

Looked like it was clearing out earlier, but can already see mid level clouds backfilling from the Cascades now. Should be yet another insulated night in the low 40s.

Raining here. 

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8 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

Acutally, it's pretty easy to see the planet is warming. Many, many signs point to it, not just weather station readings.

He’s referring to the surface stations that measure said warming. Which is what your linked article is referring to.

And, for the sake of accuracy, the earth has been cooling since July, as it does every year. 😉 It’s also been cooling for the last 6,500 years. And the last 5+ million years. And the last billion years. Lol. Depends on which timescale you choose! 

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7 minutes ago, Phil said:

He’s referring to the surface stations that measure said warming. Which is what your linked article is referring to.

And, for the sake of accuracy, the earth has been cooling since July, as it does every year. 😉 It’s also been cooling for the last 6,500 years. And the last 5+ million years. And the last billion years. Lol. Depends on which timescale you choose! 

It’s been getting colder for the past two hours

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1 hour ago, AlTahoe said:

Went mt biking today up to 7200'. The only other year we could mt bike in Jan was 2015. #worstwinterever.

 

20210117_122742.jpg

20210117_122437.jpg

It appears the second half of the winter will be a MUCH different story.  You don't know how lucky you are to have blue sky like that BTW!

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 35

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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1 hour ago, Jesse said:

Trees look sad. 😞 

The fact they have trees at 7200 feet puts them way up on WA.  Up here it's barren that high up.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 35

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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26 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

Acutally, it's pretty easy to see the planet is warming. Many, many signs point to it, not just weather station readings.

Climate change is a constant.  It has never ceased to change since the planet formed.  The whole man is causing it theme is highly flawed.  Very high chance the planet would be warming right now even if man wasn't here.  I'll be very interested to see if the solar grand minimum reverses the trend though.  There is probably a lag effect with this stuff.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 35

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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3 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Currently 43 degrees and the shower just ended. 
.12” on the day, 4.76” on the month. 

You must have been shadowed a lot this month.  I've had 7.5"

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 35

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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I really appreciate the Pivotal Weather update and the fact we can now see snowfall out to 384 hours on the GFS. Tropical Tidbits has shown that for a while, but it doesn't zoom far enough and its resolution is terrible for the Sound. Maybe the update isn't good for the weenie inside me, but it's fun to be able to see the "fake" snow predictions change with each run.

This is from the 18z today.

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Home Wx Station Stats (Since January 2008):

Max Temp: 96.3F (2009)   Min Temp: 2.0F (2008)   Max Wind Gust: 45 mph (2018, 2021)   Wettest Day: 2.43 (2012)   Avg Yearly Precip: 37"   10yr Avg Snow: 6.9"

Snowfall Totals

'08-09: 30" | '09-10: 0.5" | '10-11: 21" | '11-12: 9.5" | '12-13: 0.2" | '13-14: 6.2" | '14-15: 0.0" | '15-16: 0.25"| '16-17: 8.0" | '17-18: 0.9"| '18-19: 11.5" | '19-20: 11" 

2020-21: 10.5" (2/10: Tr, 2/12: 0.5" , 2/13: 8.5", 2/14: 1.5")

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3 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Yep was shadowed for much of the last big event. 

Even more shadowing up here with 2.58" on the month. Some of the runs this past week were suggesting this could be one of the driest Januarys I've recorded, but looks like we'll end up getting another inch or two before the end.

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Home Wx Station Stats (Since January 2008):

Max Temp: 96.3F (2009)   Min Temp: 2.0F (2008)   Max Wind Gust: 45 mph (2018, 2021)   Wettest Day: 2.43 (2012)   Avg Yearly Precip: 37"   10yr Avg Snow: 6.9"

Snowfall Totals

'08-09: 30" | '09-10: 0.5" | '10-11: 21" | '11-12: 9.5" | '12-13: 0.2" | '13-14: 6.2" | '14-15: 0.0" | '15-16: 0.25"| '16-17: 8.0" | '17-18: 0.9"| '18-19: 11.5" | '19-20: 11" 

2020-21: 10.5" (2/10: Tr, 2/12: 0.5" , 2/13: 8.5", 2/14: 1.5")

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19 minutes ago, Skagit Weather said:

Even more shadowing up here with 2.58" on the month. Some of the runs this past week were suggesting this could be one of the driest Januarys I've recorded, but looks like we'll end up getting another inch or two before the end.

Perhaps the snowfall will outdo the rainfall totals! 

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4 minutes ago, GHweatherChris said:

Just a measly 17.26" here for the month.

Impressive.   

The Cedar Lake station out here at 1,500 feet is at 14.82 inches... and the station down in North Bend is at 9.69 inches.

We have sad trees... parched from a lack of water.  

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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2 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

What is your yearly average?

Not really sure out where I live, it is higher than HQM and the last 2 years have been the wettest I have ever recorded.  I don't keep the stats logged permanently so I don't have the exact numbers to average.

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1 minute ago, GHweatherChris said:

Not really sure out where I live, it is higher than HQM and the last 2 years have been the wettest I have ever recorded.  I don't keep the stats logged permanently so I don't have the exact numbers to average.

Don't be sad Frosty, I live in the now not stats of the past.

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1 hour ago, Phil said:

He’s referring to the surface stations that measure said warming. Which is what your linked article is referring to.

And, for the sake of accuracy, the earth has been cooling since July, as it does every year. 😉 It’s also been cooling for the last 6,500 years. And the last 5+ million years. And the last billion years. Lol. Depends on which timescale you choose! 

How could we all have been so stupid? Why didn’t anybody think of it that way before?? Get those coal plants back online boys nothing we do matters it’s all about timescale!!!

 

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00Z is running NOW.

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 10.5"                        2020-21: 52.02"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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00z ICON gets mighty cold with the late next week trough.

800205145_ScreenShot2021-01-17at8_47_29PM.thumb.png.00b0cc5f3c98a21de8f81d4ecf64e6ea.png

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Cold Season 2020/21:

Total snowfall: 86.0"

Highest daily snowfall: 12.0"

Highest snow depth: 18.0"

Coldest high: -7.0º

Coldest low: -17.1º

Number of subzero days: 7

Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: 

https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history

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18 minutes ago, RentonHillTC said:

How could we all have been so stupid? Why didn’t anybody think of it that way before?? Get those coal plants back online boys nothing we do matters it’s all about timescale!!!

 

Exactly.  This whole "we've been warming for 20,000 years" argument is ridiculous.  No one with a brain denies our climate changes naturally - but it's at a MUCH slower scale we've seen in the last 100 years.  You are completely ignoring the concept of 'rate of change' in your posts.

If the only indicator of warming were temperature increases in cities around the world, you'd maybe have a valid argument over trying to dispute that comic.  But as a whole, there's no question we are warming at an unnatural (and unprecedented) rate.

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13 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

First run of MLK 2021!!!

MLK 2020 was supposed to be snowy :( 

Cold season stats  

Coldest low-25

Coldest high-32

Freezes-15

Monthly rainfall-0.00”

Cold season rainfall-32.09”

Snowfall-15.5”

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We need some snow and kold. We’re in a first year nina and we’re already pretty far behind last years lame winter. Late January and February better be good. 

Cold season stats  

Coldest low-25

Coldest high-32

Freezes-15

Monthly rainfall-0.00”

Cold season rainfall-32.09”

Snowfall-15.5”

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