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January 2021 weather observations for the PNW


MossMan

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Just now, Phil said:

image.thumb.png.4c3be7c4059fc275a36b437cc5bbd78e.png

Who needs a stratosphere anyways?

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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GEFS rolling out. Euro will soon, too.

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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Sweet. Nice AR in the long range. 

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_nwus_60.png

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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The difference between the 18z and 00z OP runs are very similar to the ensemble shifts, except maybe not quite as much and with less of a time delay.

Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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Some pretty legit cold on tonight's GFS.  I'm really liking the trend.  The one problem is the pattern is so complex we won't know anything nearly for sure about snow for a while yet.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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That AR in clown range is pretty persistent. Seems like something that could happen in this scenario. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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2 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Some pretty legit cold on tonight's GFS.  I'm really liking the trend.  The one problem is the pattern is so complex we won't know anything nearly for sure about snow for a while yet.

Probably going to be some run to run volatility in the wise words of Dewey. We went from quite a few meh/decent runs...to a really snowy one to a really cold one. 06z and 12z will probably be totally different too. 

Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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3 minutes ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said:

The ENSO regions haven't changed much at all.  Has this instead prevented a big warm-up?  Are there implications for a La Nina for next winter?

Not sure if it was Judah or where I heard it from, but I read that la nina could last into next winter. Maybe from the second SSW?

195572.png?1673757432

 

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As the Caboose of this snow train I am back onboard. At least we get one multiday snow storm on this run. Whats interesting is Jesse made a comment about SF snow, and the last time that happened was in 1976 which was a similar drought to what we are experiencing now. The end of the this GFS run shows us going right back to record warmth so I am going to ignore that for the time being.

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33 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

1967390972_500h_anom.npac-2021-01-14T205059_540.thumb.png.7e011ab2709ac4c18524d3e0df9ba2fd.png

New GFS has a dreamy block.

Talk about insane!  Can't wait to se if the new GFS is better than the current one.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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3 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

Probably going to be some run to run volatility in the wise words of Dewey. We went from quite a few meh/decent runs...to a really snowy one to a really cold one. 06z and 12z will probably be totally different too. 

The only input I can contribute here is the fact late January cold waves are notorious snow producers.  Been so long since we've had one though.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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9 minutes ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said:

The ENSO regions haven't changed much at all.  Has this instead prevented a big warm-up?  Are there implications for a La Nina for next winter?

Multiyear Niña seems likely to me right now. Been favoring the early 2020s for awhile. The fact this is centered over the IPWP suppresses the thermocline and prevents OKW inception so long as there’s no low/medium pass transition to westerlies there. 

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9 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

That AR in clown range is pretty persistent. Seems like something that could happen in this scenario. 

W could see an AR after the cold and then get cold again.  The ECMWF like the idea of an MJO in octant 7 early next month.  That is the single most likely region for us to get cold.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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2 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

The only input I can contribute here is the fact late January cold waves are notorious snow producers.  Been so long since we've had one though.

Haven’t had a sub freezing high temp in January since 2007. So 14 years. Haven’t had a real legit snow event since 2012...so 9 years on that. We’re due for some good sh*t. 

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Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

W could see an AR after the cold and then get cold again.  The ECMWF like the idea of an NJO in octant 7 early next month.  That is the single most likely region for us to get cold.

I can see that happening. It's not hard to see the pattern shown late on the GFS evolving favorably for cold. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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The operational drops below -12 on the 850s on the 25th.  Really solid cold!  

The ensemble mean drops below -7 once again.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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5 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

Haven’t had a sub freezing high temp in January since 2007. So 14 years. Haven’t had a real legit snow event since 2012...so 9 years on that. We’re due for some good sh*t. 

Crazy!! One year ago today I had a high of 27. 

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Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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3 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Crazy!! One year ago today I had a high of 27. 

I’d like to live up north too...Bellingham or anacortes would be places I’d like to live. Orcas island maybe too but there’s not a big job market there! 

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Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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The parallel model has really been spitting out some impressive runs.  Epic potential if it's correct.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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2 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

I’d like to live up north too...Bellingham or anacortes would be places I’d like to live. Orcas island maybe too but there’s not a big job market there! 

Interestingly we are very due for some winters where southern areas outdo the north.  It does happen sometimes.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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11 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

The parallel model has really been spitting out some impressive runs.  Epic potential if it's correct.

Has the Parallel been any more accurate in the long range?  

It does look nice at the end!

12 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

The parallel model has really been spitting out some impressive runs.  Epic potential if it's correct.

 

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14 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Interestingly we are very due for some winters where southern areas outdo the north.  It does happen sometimes.

I’d just like to live closer to the San Juan’s...I just like the geography and foothills meeting the salish sea and the islands...along with the weather being more active. More windstorms and usually more snow up that way and not as hot as down this way in the summer...just a more interesting place IMO. 

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Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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