January 2021 weather observations for the PNW

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 8

[Gradient Keeper]

Arctic air trying to spill south

[Meatyorologist]

I asked for a pullback, I got a pullback. Hopefully that feature just...goes away...

[Gradient Keeper]

When does the 6z EURO run, and I think it only has guidance to 6 days? I am wondering how it handles the ridge merger and kona/cut-off low.

[Gradient Keeper]

5 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:

When does the 6z EURO run, and I think it only has guidance to 6 days? I am wondering how it handles the ridge merger and kona/cut-off low.

or is it 3 days? I can't remember.

[Meatyorologist]

6 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:

When does the 6z EURO run, and I think it only has guidance to 6 days? I am wondering how it handles the ridge merger and kona/cut-off low.

It would have it in view I think. FWIW the 00z didn't have it, and the GFS has a tendancy to do these kinds of things.

[Gradient Keeper]

Snow!

[Meatyorologist]

That cutoff low did some serious damage to the cold pool. Rebuilding as the next few frames come into play...

[Gradient Keeper]

Just now, Meatyorologist said:

That cutoff low did some serious damage to the cold pool. Rebuilding as the next few frames come into play...

Yeah cut-offs SUCK.

12z GFS in 4 hours 59 minutes

[Meatyorologist]

Super LR could go nuts, though. -NAO pressing on a building cold pool in SW Canada and heights exploding over the Pacific. Would like that Pacific block to organize a bit more east.

[Meatyorologist]

On to the 12z.

[Gradient Keeper]

At least I score a nice east wind storm

[TigerWoodsLibido]

I'd imagine the ensembles will still take a step back. This is the pullback phase.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Well that sucked!

[MossMan]

Good morning! Still no power, just got back from the gas station...So far I have gone though about 18 gallons for the generator. About 54hrs powerless now. This last windstorm definitely ranks in my top 5 coming in at 5. 

Currently light drizzle and 44 degrees.

.03” so far on the day. 

[Dave]

13 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Good morning! Still no power, just got back from the gas station...So far I have gone though about 18 gallons for the generator. About 54hrs powerless now. This last windstorm definitely ranks in my top 5 coming in at 5. 

Currently light drizzle and 44 degrees.

.03” so far on the day. 

D**n. How many gallons of fuel have you burned through? Generators are great, but they get annoying after a few hours because they aren't exactly quiet.

[jakerepp]

Man, looks like the night shift took the wind out of the sails. No comments for over an hour!

[Jesse]

1 hour ago, dolt said:

D**n. How many gallons of fuel have you burned through? Generators are great, but they get annoying after a few hours because they aren't exactly quiet.

I read 18.

[MossMan]

Little by little...

[Dave]

7 minutes ago, Jesse said:

I read 18.

Lol. I need some coffee.

[Jesse]

20 minutes ago, dolt said:

Lol. I need some coffee.

Think we all could use some iced  coffee!

[TheNewCulverJosh]

That cutoff low isn't helping things but models very rarely know what to do with them.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Let’s see if the 12z can stage a comeback. I would sure feel better if the GEM was on board.

[Timmy]

Just now, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Let’s see if the 12z can stage a comeback. I would sure feel better if the GEM was on board.

who needs the gem when you have the CFS?

[Dave]

18 minutes ago, Jesse said:

Think we all could use some iced  coffee!

At least the models show that winter will be returning, regardless of any snow that may fall. I'm completely over this torchfest that we've had for a few weeks. I can't wait to head up to the mountains, they are in pathetic shape at the moment. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Unfortunately, as exciting as the GFS was last night. It was an extreme cold outlier.

 

[Timmy]

12z gfs looks like a 00z lite. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

GFS looks like reality crashing back to earth. 

[Timmy]

That ridge configuration is changing drastically each run, i know it hasnt been mentioned yet, but i would expect a lot of VOLATILITY in future runs.

[SalemDuck]

The GFS is all over the place with the ridging this run. Especially the ridge at day 8. The last five runs show 5 different looks for it.

[Phil]

Come on goofus, pick a lane and stay in it.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

We now turn our attention towards the first week of February.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, Phil said:

Come on goofus, pick a lane and stay in it.

As Dewey says volitilty is the name of this game.

[Phil]

Consistent theme with the really good runs is they bridge the NAO block with the PNA/EPO block. The more mediocre runs keep them separated to a degree.

[Front Ranger]

Gorgeous blocking ridge by day 9, albeit a bit too far offshore.

Too bad the stuff earlier has trended worse.

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

GEM looks a bit better.

[VancouverIslandSouth]

7 hours ago, ShawniganLake said:

We had a heavy thump of snow on this night last year.  15” fell that night with about 12” falling in ~4.5hrs

That band was impressive, like an intense CZ coming down the Strait. I doubt we match last January's event in terms of cold or snow, but places further south should do better than last year.

[Front Ranger]

1 minute ago, Phil said:

Consistent theme with the really good runs is they bridge the NAO block with the PNA/EPO block. The more mediocre runs keep them separated to a degree.

NAO is GOD.

[Phil]

1 minute ago, Front Ranger said:

PDO is GOD.

Fixed.

[Kayla]

12z GEM is much improved.