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January 2021 weather observations for the PNW


MossMan

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3 hours ago, MossMan said:

Good morning! Still no power, just got back from the gas station...So far I have gone though about 18 gallons for the generator. About 54hrs powerless now. This last windstorm definitely ranks in my top 5 coming in at 5. 

Currently light drizzle and 44 degrees.

.03” so far on the day. 

Does your generator provide full power to your house or just partial power?

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1 hour ago, Phil said:

Consistent theme with the really good runs is they bridge the NAO block with the PNA/EPO block. The more mediocre runs keep them separated to a degree.

Do you think the upcoming second burst of warming in the stratosphere is causing the model chaos and flip flopping we are seeing in the long range?

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GFS is being real funky with the the on/off closed off low feature it keeps showing. It showed up, then it was gone, then it showed up again for the 6z, now it’s gone again. 

The good news is that the cutoff feature seems to be anomalous, as no other models including the Euro picks up on it. Ever.

I wouldn’t trust the GFS model inside 3 days let alone a week out. 

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Headed up to OHSU today for a peek at the noggin. Looks like it's pretty damp out there. Currently 48F.

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Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

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3 minutes ago, AlTahoe said:

My street around that same time. Jan 2017 was awesome everywhere. House in the picture is a 2 story. My lab is 100lbs for scale. This was at lake level (banana belt)

IMG_4223.JPG

IMG_4200.JPG

I assume at lake level, it is much warmer, and snow is on again/off again.  Are there any communities around the lake maybe at an elevation above the lake where it is colder and the snow is more reliable?  

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2 minutes ago, Cloud said:

GFS is being real funky with the the on/off closed off low feature it keeps showing. It showed up, then it was gone, then it showed up again for the 6z, now it’s gone again. 

The good news is that the cutoff feature seems to be anomalous, as no other models including the Euro picks up on it. Ever.

I wouldn’t trust the GFS model inside 3 days let alone a week out. 

I trust it when it shows extreme cold and snow 🙂

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Just now, Brian_in_Leavenworth said:

I assume at lake level, it is much warmer, and snow is on again/off again.  Are there any communities around the lake maybe at an elevation above the lake where it is colder and the snow is more reliable?  

At lake level we average about 190" a year with like 30% of the storms being rain at some point. Once you hit 7k and above the average goes to like 300". So the higher streets in Incline village get buried. The homes on the top of Kingsbury grade on the South shore also get buried. The west side of Truckee goes up to around 7k near and they also get buried. 

Here's a good video of the snow depth in the higher neighborhoods of Incline Village. All of these homes go for $3 - $20 million so most have heated driveways or people to clear them. 

 

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1 minute ago, AlTahoe said:

At lake level we average about 190" a year with like 30% of the storms being rain at some point. Once you hit 7k and above the average goes to like 300". So the higher streets in Incline village get buried. The homes on the top of Kingsbury grade on the South shore also get buried. The west side of Truckee goes up to around 7k near and they also get buried. 

Here's a good video of the snow depth in the higher neighborhoods of Incline Village. All of these homes go for $3 - $20 million so most have heated driveways or people to clear them. 

 

That is impressive.  I knew the lake levels got a lot of snow (and rain), but not that much.  We are staying in Kingsbury in October, looking forward to exploring the whole area.  That 30% rain is probably all snow just a bit higher, at least most of the time.

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2 minutes ago, AlTahoe said:

At lake level we average about 190" a year with like 30% of the storms being rain at some point. Once you hit 7k and above the average goes to like 300". So the higher streets in Incline village get buried. The homes on the top of Kingsbury grade on the South shore also get buried. The west side of Truckee goes up to around 7k near and they also get buried. 

Here's a good video of the snow depth in the higher neighborhoods of Incline Village. All of these homes go for $3 - $20 million so most have heated driveways or people to clear them. 

 

I'm in an Owens Valley Facebook group and I love seeing all the snow total pictures. There's one person in Mammoth always posting.

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1 minute ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said:

That is impressive.  I knew the lake levels got a lot of snow (and rain), but not that much.  We are staying in Kingsbury in October, looking forward to exploring the whole area.  That 30% rain is probably all snow just a bit higher, at least most of the time.

Bring your Mt bike if you have one. October is the best time of the year with the lake and weather still being warm and most of the tourist are gone. Tahoe rim trail will be next to where your staying. Also go down Kingsbury grade to the little town of Genoa NV. They have the oldest bar in the state Est 1858 and it is only like a 15 minute drive from Kingsbury grade. 

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Every year my wife says we need to get down to Tahoe. Her cousin lives outside of Reno and comes up and sees us every year, but we have yet to make it down there. 

  • Weenie 1

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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As a young woman my mom did a lot of fly fishing in the Owens River and surrounding streams. She took us there once when I was a teenager, the fishing was tremendous and the scenery spectacular. Some dry country over there in the shadow of the Sierras. 

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  • Weenie 1

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Every year my wife says we need to get down to Tahoe. Her cousin lives outside of Reno and comes up and sees us every year, but we have yet to make it down there. 

This year would have left a bad taste in your mouth as we were inundated with Citiots, and Tourons. The state was on lockdown so everyone came to Tahoe. We probably had 5x the usual visitors and they were all trash people that ignored the lockdown. They literally trashed the entire area, and gave 1 out of 4 locals Covid including myself. Hopefully things will go back to normal next summer. 

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17 minutes ago, AlTahoe said:

Bring your Mt bike if you have one. October is the best time of the year with the lake and weather still being warm and most of the tourist are gone. Tahoe rim trail will be next to where your staying. Also go down Kingsbury grade to the little town of Genoa NV. They have the oldest bar in the state Est 1858 and it is only like a 15 minute drive from Kingsbury grade. 

The Carson Valley is another beautiful place, lots of gorgeous ranch country there. Hopefully I can visit the area in the not-too-distant future.

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3 minutes ago, weather_fan said:

Why not? 

Weather apps are automated forecasts made not anywhere near where you live.  There is not a person that is making a forecast for your area based on their experience, their knowledge of the terrain, the recent performance of the models, etc.  Sometimes it is just a literal spitting out of what one particular model says at that moment at a very low resolution.  Works for summer when the weather is benign, but awful for winter, especially snow.

Where I live, I remember seeing an app that was based out of Norway.  Yes, the app on my phone was from Norway, Microsoft had it as its default weather app.  I remember the time it showed rain and 43 degrees for Leavenworth (we average 94 inches of snow in the winter, and are about 10-12 degrees colder than Seattle), and at the same time it showed snow for Seattle and 30 degrees.  The actual weather was pretty much the reverse of that.

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56 minutes ago, AbbyJr said:

Does your generator provide full power to your house or just partial power?

It runs part of the house, the vital organs like the well pump, septic pump, on demand hot water system, living room lights, refrigerator, the gas fireplace with the blower, and some outlets. Way better than my old house with a smaller portable generator that I had to run extension cords all over. 

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Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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5 minutes ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said:

Weather apps are automated forecasts made not anywhere near where you live.  There is not a person that is making a forecast for your area based on their experience, their knowledge of the terrain, the recent performance of the models, etc.  Sometimes it is just a literal spitting out of what one particular model says at that moment at a very low resolution.  Works for summer when the weather is benign, but awful for winter, especially snow.

Where I live, I remember seeing an app that was based out of Norway.  Yes, the app on my phone was from Norway, Microsoft had it as its default weather app.  I remember the time it showed rain and 43 degrees for Leavenworth (we average 94 inches of snow in the winter, and are about 10-12 degrees colder than Seattle), and at the same time it showed snow for Seattle and 30 degrees.  The actual weather was pretty much the reverse of that.

The only app I have found that is half way decent is Dark Sky. 

Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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3 minutes ago, MossMan said:

The only app I have found that is half way decent is Dark Sky. 

WeatherMate is worth the couple bucks. At least for temps I think they mostly roll with the EC solutions.

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Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

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GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope

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20 minutes ago, AlTahoe said:

This year would have left a bad taste in your mouth as we were inundated with Citiots, and Tourons. The state was on lockdown so everyone came to Tahoe. We probably had 5x the usual visitors and they were all trash people that ignored the lockdown. They literally trashed the entire area, and gave 1 out of 4 locals Covid including myself. Hopefully things will go back to normal next summer. 

Don't get me started on that... the whole area is beautiful and I miss being a 4-5hr drive away. I can still order from Schats though.

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