BLI snowman Posted January 15, 2021 Report Share Posted January 15, 2021 4 minutes ago, Kayla said: Lemme see what I can find...oh yes here is the EPS control run! Better! Still looks a little cut-off there on the 850s. I guess if there's any good news it's that the models often do weird things with energy on the backside of major blocks like that, and especially in the midrange seem to have a cut-off fetish. 18z is probably about the warmest solution possible given the circumstances. The block still looks to hold largely firm and that's half the battle. 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meatyorologist Posted January 15, 2021 Report Share Posted January 15, 2021 Just now, Brian_in_Leavenworth said: I swear this is at least the third time we've both posted the GEFS simultaneously! Great minds think alike... 2 1 Quote Weather stats for MBY Snowfall: -Total snowfall since joining: 50.25" -2018-19: 21" -2019-20: 2.5" -2020-21: 13" -2021-22: 8.75" -2022-23: 5.75" -2023-24*: 0.25" -Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024 -Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021 -Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019 Temperatures: -Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021 -Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021 -Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bainbridgekid Posted January 15, 2021 Report Share Posted January 15, 2021 Speaking of storms that would be snow with any cold air to work with . . . Quote Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation) Snow since February 2019: 91" 2023-24: 6" 2022-23: 17.5" 2021-22: 17.75" 2020-21: 14.5” 2019-20: 10.5" 2018-19: 24.75" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted January 15, 2021 Report Share Posted January 15, 2021 Unfortunately the 18z v16 looks awfully similar. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted January 15, 2021 Report Share Posted January 15, 2021 Welp, onto 22-23. 1 Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian_in_Leavenworth Posted January 15, 2021 Report Share Posted January 15, 2021 3 minutes ago, BLI snowman said: Unfortunately the 18z v16 looks awfully similar. Fortunately the ensembles don't. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meatyorologist Posted January 15, 2021 Report Share Posted January 15, 2021 I'm not complaining. 2 Quote Weather stats for MBY Snowfall: -Total snowfall since joining: 50.25" -2018-19: 21" -2019-20: 2.5" -2020-21: 13" -2021-22: 8.75" -2022-23: 5.75" -2023-24*: 0.25" -Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024 -Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021 -Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019 Temperatures: -Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021 -Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021 -Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheNewCulverJosh Posted January 15, 2021 Report Share Posted January 15, 2021 6 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said: I'm not complaining. My only concern is where is the reload. NWS is sticking to their guns that this pattern will hold through the end of the month. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SalemDuck Posted January 15, 2021 Report Share Posted January 15, 2021 Looking at individual members of the ensembles today they almost all want to turn that day 9-11 shortwave into a cutoff. Huge potential in that pattern if it cuts off in the right spot but that’s a pretty limited area 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted January 15, 2021 Report Share Posted January 15, 2021 1 1 Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted January 15, 2021 Report Share Posted January 15, 2021 I was hoping these Lil’ guys could be permanently sidelined by now... 2 1 1 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kolk1604 Posted January 15, 2021 Report Share Posted January 15, 2021 8 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said: I'm starting to lose some faith in any meaningful cold and/or snowy period. Just not the best trends on the operational runs recently. Hopefully this is just their regular 'pull back before showing the goods again' move but I'm not optimistic. Is the 2nd SSW throwing off the models? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted January 15, 2021 Report Share Posted January 15, 2021 I’ll wait a few days before throwing in the towel. Ensembles still look good...gfs has been so up and down really hard to put much stock into it past a week out. Ensembles have been steady. 2 1 Quote Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GeorgeWx Posted January 15, 2021 Report Share Posted January 15, 2021 1 hour ago, hawkstwelve said: This whole thing has gone to sh*t. Phil said we would get a full on arctic blast or grazed by it. This is what he must of meant by grazed. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthHillFrosty Posted January 16, 2021 Report Share Posted January 16, 2021 We’re taking about the same 18z operational run that showed 2 feet of snow for the whole pnw yesterday? Alright 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted January 16, 2021 Report Share Posted January 16, 2021 Looks aight. 2 1 Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlTahoe Posted January 16, 2021 Report Share Posted January 16, 2021 Mammoth lakes (7800') set a new Jan record at 66F today! This winter is right up there with 2014-2015 for worst ever. 1 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted January 16, 2021 Report Share Posted January 16, 2021 6 hours ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said: Still cant believe people actually use weather apps for winter time forecasts. Summer I understand, but winter? I use the NWS app (AWeather). I trust the NWS over model snow maps. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian_in_Leavenworth Posted January 16, 2021 Report Share Posted January 16, 2021 11 minutes ago, Phil said: I use the NWS app (AWeather). I trust the NWS over model snow maps. Didn't know the NWS finally developed an app, good to know. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted January 16, 2021 Report Share Posted January 16, 2021 Getting dark out. Three weeks ago right now it was pretty much dark already. #winterisnear 1 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthHillFrosty Posted January 16, 2021 Report Share Posted January 16, 2021 Cold night at the water front in Tacoma. Sad that 50 is considered cold for this winter 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dave Posted January 16, 2021 Report Share Posted January 16, 2021 I use NOAA Weather. It's not developed by the NWS, but it does grab the forecasts directly from them. The radar is broken though ever since the NWS changed their radar page. That's no biggie because I also have Radarscope. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 16, 2021 Report Share Posted January 16, 2021 Phil! What went wrong?! 1 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted January 16, 2021 Report Share Posted January 16, 2021 11 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said: Cold night at the water front in Tacoma. Sad that 50 is considered cold for this winter Well you’re at one or the warmest places in the Seattle area! Don’t worry it’ll atleast get chilly soon I have faith in some good winter weather soon still. 1 Quote Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian_in_Leavenworth Posted January 16, 2021 Report Share Posted January 16, 2021 5 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: Phil! What went wrong?! Nothings gone wrong yet. These are models. The actual weather hasn't happened yet. We may still get an arctic blast. Every single time, and I mean every single time there is an actual arctic blast, the models do this. And you know that. And of course there are times when it actually does turn into a bust, and this could very well turn into a bust. Give it time, and then analyze. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted January 16, 2021 Report Share Posted January 16, 2021 40 minutes ago, Deweydog said: Getting dark out. Three weeks ago right now it was pretty much dark already. #winterisnear It’s an interesting thought experiment to imagine a post made in a similar tone in mid-July. #neverwouldhappen #summerissacred 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted January 16, 2021 Report Share Posted January 16, 2021 4 minutes ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said: Nothings gone wrong yet. These are models. The actual weather hasn't happened yet. We may still get an arctic blast. Every single time, and I mean every single time there is an actual arctic blast, the models do this. And you know that. And of course there are times when it actually does turn into a bust, and this could very well turn into a bust. Give it time, and then analyze. Things can change pretty quickly on the models. This event is still a ways out no surprise the models aren’t giving us a clear picture. Quote Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted January 16, 2021 Report Share Posted January 16, 2021 It appears the 18z GFS ensemble began to pick up on possible influence from a PV WSW of Hudson's Bay. That is going to be a feature to watch. That could be a game changer if it's able to dig close enough. As it is the snowfall numbers on the 18z ensemble are pretty awesome. 2 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted January 16, 2021 Report Share Posted January 16, 2021 10 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said: Things can change pretty quickly on the models. This event is still a ways out no surprise the models aren’t giving us a clear picture. The chance is still there for a great outcome. I'm actually glad to be seeing it indicating stuff digging out too far over the ocean at this stage of the game as opposed to showing that two days from now. We all know from past experience this won't play out as currently progged. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted January 16, 2021 Author Report Share Posted January 16, 2021 2 hours ago, TigerWoodsLibido said: Looks aight. Lots of Pepto for winter being cancelled. Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cjmessling Posted January 16, 2021 Report Share Posted January 16, 2021 I was going to say I can’t believe how people cancel then Uncancel winter whenever the models ebb and flow from run to run 8-10 days out. Then I remembered that I do this I expect some typical flip flopping the next few days. When we are 3-4 days out I will officially release my vote for cancel or uncancel (and I will still probably be wrong) here’s to hoping for some cold and some snow 2 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 16, 2021 Report Share Posted January 16, 2021 Foggy out at the falls today. 4 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted January 16, 2021 Report Share Posted January 16, 2021 7 minutes ago, snow_wizard said: The chance is still there for a great outcome. I'm actually glad to be seeing it indicating stuff digging out too far over the ocean at this stage of the game as opposed to showing that two days from now. We all know from past experience this won't play out as currently progged. Still plenty of potential for something good to happen. How good? Yet to be seen. Atleast we know it’ll be cooler than what we’ve been seeing recently. Quote Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian_in_Leavenworth Posted January 16, 2021 Report Share Posted January 16, 2021 17 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said: Things can change pretty quickly on the models. This event is still a ways out no surprise the models aren’t giving us a clear picture. Yup. And it isn't like the models are showing a GOA low and zonal flow. The same basic patter is there, just a few details that aren't right on those model runs, at least for those on the West side. As people have been saying, the devil is in the details, and this is an example. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted January 16, 2021 Report Share Posted January 16, 2021 FWIW most of the models are showing the GOA positive anomaly center VERY near the best possible location historically speaking. The problem popping up on the bad runs is the bottom of the block doesn't hold strong enough and allows too much digging off the coast. Hard to figure with the GOA positive center being so close to the sweet spot. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted January 16, 2021 Author Report Share Posted January 16, 2021 Power update...Still no power. 4 1 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
umadbro Posted January 16, 2021 Report Share Posted January 16, 2021 11 minutes ago, MossMan said: Power update...Still no power. D**n Quote https://ambientweather.net/dashboard/efcb24c8a999dceddfaba7469ce5bd2f my personal weather station Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chewbacca Defense Posted January 16, 2021 Report Share Posted January 16, 2021 Decent sunset tonight.... 3 Quote Britton Rd Bellingham Weather Station: https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KWABELLI103?cm_ven=localwx_pwsdash Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chewbacca Defense Posted January 16, 2021 Report Share Posted January 16, 2021 13 minutes ago, MossMan said: Power update...Still no power. That sucks, at least the weather is somewhat decent. I'm sure it would be much more unpleasant if it were in the blizzard conditions we should be seeing in the near future. 1 Quote Britton Rd Bellingham Weather Station: https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KWABELLI103?cm_ven=localwx_pwsdash Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted January 16, 2021 Author Report Share Posted January 16, 2021 9 minutes ago, Chewbacca Defense said: That sucks, at least the weather is somewhat decent. I'm sure it would be much more unpleasant if it were in the blizzard conditions we should be seeing in the near future. Yeah the mild weather has helped for sure! I’m planning on changing the oil and restocking fuel this weekend (if I get power back) to get ready in case we get a big wet snow event coming up that knocks out the power again. Even just the 3” we had last month started bringing down small branches, if it would have kept up we would have lost power for sure. Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Posted by OysterPrintout,
3 reactions
Go to this post
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.